U.S. colleges are facing plummeting international student enrollments, and the consequences could extend far beyond reduced tuition revenue.
International students have become less likely to study in the United States since President Donald Trump returned to office. The administration has implemented more restrictive anti-immigration policies, including measures that explicitly target foreign studentsand tightened rules after school employment for international graduates.
Last fall, schools reported increased international student enrollment down 17%It is a non-profit educational institution according to NAFSA. Reduced tuition spending led to $1.1 billion in lost revenue for universities and almost 23,000 fewer jobs.
These numbers may only be a small amount if international students permanently avoid U.S. schools. International enrollees disproportionately pursue technical degrees, also known as STEM, including the fields of science, technology, engineering and mathematics. The skills and jobs they lead to are the cornerstones of U.S. innovation and technological breakthroughs, and they support businesses and jobs of all kinds. By cutting off foreign master’s and doctoral students at the source, the USA risks destroying its own economy years later.
This is a finding paper It was published Tuesday by researchers at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The paper found that if the number of STEM graduates educated in the US falls by a third over the next decade, the hit to entrepreneurship, productivity and business dynamism would amount to between $240 billion and $481 billion off the country’s GDP.
“A major and enduring economic advantage of the United States has been its ability to recruit and train the best talent from around the world,” the authors wrote. “In practice, the recruitment of highly skilled STEM talent in the United States occurs primarily at US universities.”
International STEM pipeline
When Trump returned to office, the administration was on a roll with voter approval for its planned immigration policies. In January 2025, the president did particularly well in the polls by promising to restrict undocumented immigration. A Gallup questionnaire He noted at the time that Americans had more confidence in Trump’s immigration platform than other issues on which he campaigned.
However, over the past 18 months, Trump’s comprehensive crackdown on immigrants has also included the narrowing of legal immigration routes. The administration passed a law travel bans Tightened measures affecting dozens of countries refugee reception It reformed the process by which many highly skilled foreign students could come to the United States to study and ultimately work.
Last year, the management ordered changes. H-1B visa programThis allows companies to hire highly skilled and specialized employees. The renewal required employers to pay $100,000 for each application, compared with about $5,000 previously. a federal judge I broke the order Earlier this month, the administration said it would appeal the decision.
The White House did not immediately respond to this question Luck‘s request for comment.
Changes in H-1B requirements are being felt keenly in America’s most innovative industries. Companies rely on program to hire foreign-born military engineers, artificial intelligence researchersAnd health practitionersmany were studying in the US before finding work. between 1.2 million international students According to a survey from the Institute of International Education, 57% of those attending U.S. schools last year were enrolled in a STEM program.
Loss of opportunities for skilled workers
International students’ concentration in STEM fields is increasing along with their specializations. Peterson Institute research found that international arrivals make up 42.1% of STEM workers whose highest degree is a master’s, and this rises to 49.2% for those with a doctoral qualification. Between 2000 and 2023, foreign-born professionals made up more than 60% of all new STEM workers with doctorates.
The problem for U.S. companies, the authors write, is that even before Trump, the country offered relatively few ways for firms to hire directly from abroad. Programs such as H-1B and even green card issuance are largely dependent on recipients having lived in the United States for several years.
This has made hiring directly from master’s and doctoral programs one of the most reliable talent channels for employers to turn to, and it’s a strategy that has been generally successful. While the number of foreign-born STEM workers staying in the U.S. declines with distance from graduation, researchers found that nearly 40% of high-skilled professionals stay in the U.S. for more than eight years after completing their degrees.
Those who stay become some of the country’s most dynamic innovators. According to one study, immigrants founded or co-founded 59 percent of billion-dollar startups in the country. report It was published this month by the National Foundation for American Policy. Research A 2023 study from Stanford economists also found that immigrants were responsible for 23% of patents granted in the past few decades, in part because U.S.-born innovators frequently cited foreign-born research and inventions.
Peterson researchers estimated the economic cost of losing foreign students at the same rate as last year; but this may be a low estimate. According to one study, the decline in visa applications in the last academic year could have been as high as 36 percent. analysis According to Ministry of Foreign Affairs data Chronicle of Higher Education. The decline in enrollment is expected to increase by another 1% each year between now and 2030. another new report By QS, a higher education analytics firm.
The United States’ loss may be its rivals’ gain. As American colleges and universities confront consistent budget deficits and enrollment gapsAccording to the latest NAFSA report, 82% of schools in Asia and 47% of schools in Europe saw undergraduate enrollments increase last year; In the US, the rate was only 18%. universities Hong Kong And Japan He openly courted international Harvard attendees last year who were caught up in the institution’s conflict with the Trump administration over school policies.
“These high-skilled STEM workers lost to the United States will not disappear,” the Peterson researchers wrote. “They will supply their talent to rival countries.”
This story first appeared on: Fortune.com
