Bitcoin is having a tough year. Traders are betting it’s going to get worse
LAS VEGAS, NV – APRIL 27: Michael Saylor speaks at Bitcoin Conference 2026, a premier event for cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiasts, held on April 27, 2026 in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. Bitcoin Conference is a platform for experts, investors and innovators to share knowledge, showcase projects and network with like-minded individuals. (Photo: Tayfun Coşkun/Anadolu, via Getty Images)
Anatolia | Anatolia | Getty Images
Bitcoin Futures fell as low as $58,995 on Thursday, the lowest price since October 2024, and is down nearly 52 percent from last year’s high. The largest cryptocurrency has been struggling with the $60,000 level all year; first in February, where it found support, and then in the first two weeks of June before climbing above $67,000.
Option investors consider this breakout as the tip of the iceberg.
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) A fraction of 1.1 million options were traded on Thursday, nearly twice the average of the past thirty days, according to Cboe LiveVol data. More than double the volume. Traders purchased 275,000 puts, compared to just under 129,000 puts, according to data from ThinkOrSwim.
According to SpotGamma, $144 million of the $187 million premium traded on IBIT consisted of sales transactions. 19 of the 20 most traded contracts in terms of volume are sales contracts. The most popular contract was the 32.5 strike put expiring on Friday, which would require another 4.5% drop in Bitcoin to pay off.
Implied volatility on IBIT is just 53, meaning options market makers are expecting a move of just over 3% per day.
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), 1 year
Based on option prices expiring July 31, there is about a 48% chance that IBIT will fall below $30.5 or fall another 10% between now and the end of next month. The odds of a 10% rise by then are slightly higher, around 55%.
Flows on Michael Saylor’s were not so positive. StrategyWhere 505,000 puts and 403,000 calls were traded. Investors bought 83,000 puts and 72,000 put calls, while just under 58,000 bought puts.
