MLB owners reveal new details of salary cap proposal that all but guarantee a lockout this December

We’re halfway through the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season, and I hope fans are enjoying it because this might be the last baseball they see for a while. And that’s partly their fault.

The collective bargaining agreement between the league’s owners and the MLB Players Association expires in early December, and negotiations are expected to be contentious. In fact, the two parties have exchanged preliminary proposals before, and according to the reaction of both parties, they are far from each other. And don’t get close.

Official account of MLB on X published on thursday afternoon It’s about proposals to restructure the league’s structure to make more money for team owners, and predictably the players aren’t happy about it.

In a remarkable combination of weaponized propaganda, the post claims that “Ultimately, the game is about hope,” which is both absurd and false. “Too many fans in many markets have little hope that their team has a fair chance of winning,” he continues.

MLB’S PAY CAP PROPOSAL WON’T SOLVE THE LEAGUE’S UNEXISTING COMPETITIVE BALANCE PROBLEMS

“Fans overwhelmingly support salary cap and floor “Like other leagues because they don’t believe a $446 million top-to-bottom spending difference is a fair fight.”

“Our offer levels the playing field during Split baseball revenue 50/50 with players When we grow the game together. Additionally, revenues from all local media will be centralized and shared equally, allowing MLB to address local market disruptions. “We look forward to working with the MLBPA through the bargaining process to continue improving the game for fans.”

That’s why the fans may bear some of the blame for the inevitable lockout. Because the wailing and gnashing of teeth about the Los Angeles Dodgers has allowed the league and its owners to claim that fans care about how revenue in MLB is distributed. They don’t. But they are taking advantage of fans’ lack of awareness of the current structure of the sport and misplaced anger towards Los Angeles to achieve their own ends.

MLB OWNERS HAVE ALREADY WITHDRAWED PLAYERS’ ORIGINAL CBA OFFER AS BUSINESS STOP IS IMPOSED AFTER 2026 SEASON

Fans want their team to win. Owners want their teams to be more profitable. Players want to maintain or increase their share of the total revenue and avoid artificially limiting their value in the open market through a form of sports socialism. “Leveling the playing field” is excellent marketing for Zohran Mamdani, less so for a competitive business. That’s why it doesn’t make sense to side with ownership in this negotiation.

The final details in the proposal provide little benefit to players while adding a few details that do not change the overall picture. Teams that replace free agents can only sign contracts for up to five years for a maximum of 15% of the team’s payroll, with a 5% increase each year under the contract. The “Cornerstone Player Provision” will allow teams to keep their players for another year.

This protects bad front offices by limiting the downside of longer contracts. While hurting players who cannot use their market power to sign long-term deals. There is little incentive for players to stay at home, in a seemingly smaller market, for just one more year of guaranteed salary if they can get five more years from, say, a better organization like the Dodgers. Then there’s another problem: Small-market teams will still be run by cheap owners. Regardless of the terrain, the Marlins will spend it on the field. So are pirates and others. So the stars will leave anyway because the owners will do whatever they can to minimize costs.

That’s the problem with the so-called “$446 million spending gap” at the low end, not the high end. The Dodgers’ total payroll obligations are $350 million, according to Spotrac. The Marlins are worth $67 million. This is not $446 million, it is $297 million. It’s obviously still big, but the league knows fans will see that number and be even more upset. Large numbers are meaningful. Just ask the NFL, which scores less per game than baseball but uses a ridiculous scoring system to convince fans otherwise.

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Shohei Ohtani walks to the dugout against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fifth inning of Game 4 of the World Series on October 28, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Brynn Anderson/AP Photo)

The Marlins currently receive an estimated $60 to $70 million from revenue share distribution. This does not include stadium revenue, television revenue, merchandise sales, concession sales, parking revenue or advertising revenue. So why are payrolls so low? Because ownership is currently allowed to spend as little as possible with little fear of MLB’s current rules being enforced. The Marlins’ goal is to be a profit-maximizing organization, not a competitive organization.

There is also the other side of this; the so-called lack of “hope” and competitive balance in the current format. Let’s take a look at how some major market teams and “hopeless” small market teams are doing as of Thursday afternoon.

The Dodgers and Yankees are in first place in their respective leagues. And that’s it.

The New York Mets, who have spent as much money on payroll as any team in baseball over the past five years, are 34-46, 14.5 games out of first place, nine games out of the wild-card spot and effectively dead and buried. The Boston Red Sox, one of the league’s signature teams, are in an even worse situation. They are 32-46 through 15.5 games in the first game and literally have the worst record in the American League.

Then there are the Los Angeles Angels, who play in the nation’s second-largest media market. They’re 34-48 and almost guaranteed to finish another year under .500. Second-largest market, no playoff appearance since 2014. In San Francisco, another huge market with no competition, the Giants are in fourth place at 33-46.

Chicago Cubs are in third place. The Texas Rangers, who play in Dallas, the nation’s fourth-largest media market, are in fourth place and under .500. Playing in the greater Houston market, the Astros lead 39-43. In second place in the AL East are the Tampa Bay Rays, not the big-market Toronto Blue Jays.

This is the other side of it. The small market Brewers are once again running away with the NL Central. Chicago’s “other” team, the White Sox, are tied for first place with the Cleveland Guardians. The Padres are once again in a playoff position in the small market of San Diego. The Marlins, Pirates and Nationals are all in playoff contention. The Giants and Mets are not like that. In fact, the combined record of the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Angels, Rangers, Astros, Red Sox, Giants, Phillies, and Cubs is 396-401.

Small market teams, Brewers, Guardians, White Sox, Rays, Cardinals, Padres, Mariners, Pirates and Marlins 383-331. That’s a winning percentage of .495 compared to .536.

Some of these organizations are actively trying not to win! And they still win!

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Jacob Misiorowski pitched for St. Louis at Milwaukee on May 25, 2026. He pitches in the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals. (Kayla Kurt/AP)

The financial details of the proposal are even worse. This isn’t a true 50/50 split as they claim, because it first takes billions of dollars of side revenue off the table. In reality, the proposal would take approximately $550 million out of players’ pockets. A significant part of the “salary” cap is covered by player benefits and amateur bonus pools. This means owners can reduce their overall costs while claiming to spend more on salaries.

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If a ground system is possible, why shouldn’t teams spend more if they don’t have to? Yes, more revenue sharing from TV deals would provide the Marlins with more revenue, but then why not increase that percentage without resorting to a cap?

“After making a series of proposals to reduce player compensation by billions of dollars, eliminate salary cap and basic rights, and eliminate the amateur entry process, Major League Baseball and team owners are now trying to distance themselves from the real impact their plans would have on baseball,” the players association said in a statement. he said.

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And they are right. Just a few months ago Rob Manfred said the Dodgers were good for baseball. Now when it comes time for business owners to make more money, they are the bad guys. If the Blue Jays had taken out Miguel Rojas, who makes nearly $5 million a year, in the ninth inning of Game 7, none of this would have happened in the first place. Not to mention how quickly fans forgot how much they enjoyed making fun of the “choker” Dodgers in 2021, 2022 and 2023.

Baseball doesn’t need fixing. The salary cap doesn’t solve the problem. These suggestions are not about “improving” the game or hope, but about making owners richer. And there is zero, less than zero reason for fans to support him or be used as pawns in the league’s propaganda war.