SpaceX investors grapple with volatility amid big swings
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Roller coaster. That’s probably the best word to describe it SpaceX It opens in two weeks as a public company.
The stock rose for several consecutive days after a record-breaking IPO, briefly outperforming both. Amazon And Microsoft in terms of market capitalization and is up more than 60% from the initial share offering price of $135.
But the good times wouldn’t last long. Daily declines of 5% and 4% were followed by a 16% drop as tensions spread across the market. More stable days followed, with single-point movements in both directions.
Volatility underscores the sharp nature of a story-driven stock.
High sci-fi passion, wide coverage *ahem* A founder with a media and cult-like following created a frenzy of excitement around the company.
“Most stocks trade based on how their earnings multiple compares to other similar stocks,” said Gil Luria, head of technology research at DA Davidson.
“Elon Musk companies don’t really do this.” He added that Musk’s initiatives are instead based on expectations.
“Tesla’s more traded [autonomous driving service] Robotaxi and [humanoid robot] “Rather than selling cars, Optimus and SpaceX are trading more on the promise of Mars exploration or at least data centers in space,” Luria said.
A video shows SpaceX founder Elon Musk following the company’s IPO on the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York on June 12, 2026.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Retail investors have embraced this forward-looking narrative en masse.
Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda, said SpaceX “embodies many of the qualities that have historically resonated with retail investors: a transformational technology story, a bold future vision, a famous founder and unparalleled media attention.”
Research firm Vanda said retail investors purchased a net $405 million of SpaceX shares in the first five trading sessions, making it the strongest retail IPO in recent history.
“The ‘Elon cult’ for SpaceX attracts more retail investors and adds extra excitement that can add a lot to volatility like we’ve seen with Tesla share prices,” said Mike Coop, Morningstar Wealth’s EMEA chief investment officer. Morningstar analysts caused a stir as SpaceX approached its IPO, writing that the stock’s value was less than half of its $1.75 trillion target.
After a bullish first few days in public markets, fundamentals have become a bigger driver of price, creating a “hangover” situation, said veteran market analyst Kyle Rodda. capital.com.
Musk is predictably touting sky-high revenue growth in the coming years. He said on June 14 that the company could reach “approximately” $1 trillion in revenue by 2030.
That’s a big jump from the $18.7 billion in revenue SpaceX generated in 2025. The company posted a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 and lost $4.28 billion in the first quarter of this year.
Coop said SpaceX faces two major challenges in the markets in the long term.
“First, the supply of shares will increase as early investors mitigate their risk and monetize earnings,” he said.
“Secondly, the current price is too high, given the great uncertainty around the company’s prospects and the company’s starting point of incurring heavy losses and requiring large capital investment.”
Yet so far, few people have been willing to bet against the stock.
“The Big Short” star Michael Burry said June 16 that he had no position in SpaceX, arguing that options used to bet against the stock were too expensive even as he questioned the company’s nearly $3 trillion market cap.
While SpaceX has received some interest from short sellers, many are still reluctant to bet against Musk.
Time will tell how far the narrative will take SpaceX shares. In any case, we expect more twists and turns on the rollercoaster.
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