Overnight, Victoria Bonya went from a Russian influencer known for her exercise routines and cosmetic boosts to a catalyst for widespread public discontent about her country’s society and economy.
Bonya, a former television presenter in Russia who now makes a living as an influencer in Monaco, enjoyed the kind of virality most activists and politicians could only dream of when she published an op-ed in April criticizing Vladimir Putin’s handling of the Russian economy. 18 minute videoThe post published on Instagram received nearly 32 million views and 1.7 million likes.
Bonya’s list of grievances included everything from the government’s botched response to extreme flooding in Russia’s south earlier this year to rising inflation and taxes hurting households. The widely viewed and reshared video included a direct message to Putin: “Do you know what risk is?” Bonya asked in the video. “People will stop being afraid and they will be squeezed into a coiled spring, and one day that coiled spring will pop out.”
Russians have yet to voice their disapproval of the status quo through a Bolshevik-style rebellion (which some Kremlin leaders have warned is an uprising). real probability In the tumultuous weeks after Bonya’s video went viral), the country’s economy is beginning to show strain at its most basic level: its people.
Russians may be famous for their pessimism. a long one middle class country In world happiness rankings, cross-cultural research has shown that the brooding and gloomy Russian archetype described by Dostoyevsky and Tolstoy is actually learned concept. But after a war that has ostracized Russians from the world and left them facing broken promises from the government, official readings of economic pessimism have recently reached record levels, threatening the Kremlin’s tenuous grip on society.
losing people
Putin might scoff at the idea. Four years after the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has proven remarkably resilient, shouldering sanctions, soaring inflation and depleting financial reserves. But Putin’s dogged wartime economy is fast running out of a resource vital to supporting social stability: trust in its leaders that someday the sacrifices of average Russians will be worth it.
Russia has recorded a historic increase in economic pessimism this year, according to Gallup questionnaire It was published on Tuesday. A record 60 percent of Russians said economic conditions were worsening; That figure was up from 39 percent last year, and marked the first time in two decades that Gallup polled that pessimism represented the majority view. Only 27 percent of Russians say economic conditions have improved, while 56 percent say living standards have worsened, a record level.
Throughout the war, the Russians were in a sort of social truce with the Kremlin. A concept analysts”everyday patriotismThe agreement allowed Russians to continue their pre-war lives more or less uninterrupted, as long as they refrained from opposing the state or criticizing the war effort.
Russia has largely succeeded in defying Western sanctions by increasing trade with non-aligned countries, especially India and China. Meanwhile, explosive growth in the military economy and incentive spending Infrastructure and social benefits have helped Russian households stay afloat despite increasing inflation.
broken promises
But this compact falls apart. The Russian government announced that it had to cover its military expenses increase in value added tax Last year, this rate rose from 20% to 22% in Russia, and this move was seen in Russia as a renege on Putin’s promise not to increase taxes before 2030. The new taxes put pressure on employment and forced small businesses to raise taxes. close.
These mechanisms show signs of serious tension. Russia’s liquid sovereign wealth fund assets are now worth 1.8 percent of GDP, compared to 6.5 percent at the beginning of the war. report It was published earlier this month by the Kiel Institute, a think tank in Germany. The Kremlin’s financial picture also deteriorated further, as the year’s target budget deficit was quickly exceeded in the first quarter.
Oil and gas revenues, one of the only lifelines supporting Russia’s spending during the war, also collapsed by 45% in the first three months of 2026 compared to the previous year, according to the report. Before the war in the Middle East global oversupply Ukrainian military attacks have increased the demand for Russian crude oil. successfully limit output has been in Russian refineries for months.
High oil prices gave Putin an advantage due to tension in the Strait of Hormuz temporary postponementHowever, labor shortage and limited production capacity complicated The Kremlin’s hope of pouring more money into the defense sector.
“The main constraint Russia faces today is not access to money, but access to people, technology and productive capacity,” Matthew Klein, an economist and co-author of the Kiel Institute analysis, wrote in the report.
“The government can mobilize additional fiscal resources, but with record labor shortages and sanctions restricting access to critical imports, higher spending increasingly risks leading to inflation rather than greater military output,” he added.
For ordinary Russians, this collapse is reflected in the decline in economic mood. The Gallup poll found that a growing share of Russians are losing confidence in the country’s institutions, including the military and national government. When asked about employment prospects, 58% of respondents said it was a bad time to find a job; This rate is the highest since 2021, when employment in Russia was still recovering from the pandemic.
Russia’s economy has been mostly good since the start of the war; It is slow, but it is not falling victim to the collapse that many analysts predicted. But we face a glacial advance on the front lines in Ukraine, and Russia’s defenses are now dealing with drone strikes hit hard Putin’s commitments to keeping the war machine running will likely go nowhere. It is becoming increasingly difficult to finance this effort while keeping the public on its side.
This story first appeared on: Fortune.com
