France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen awaits court verdict

The RN’s candidate in the April-May elections would automatically be Le Pen’s much younger colleague, 30-year-old Jordan Bardella. Polls currently show that he will also be the favorite in the elections; but his youth and inexperience may begin to tell once the campaigns begin.

“The decision you have to make because of the presidential election is of dazzling importance,” Le Pen’s lawyer Rudolphe Bosselut said in his brief to the court in February.

After deliberating for four months, the court will decide whether to confirm, overturn or adapt the verdict and sentence given to Le Pen in March 2025. Ten other RN officials of the 25 originally convicted are also appealing.

At the first hearing it was revealed that the RN leader had knowingly presided over a system in which RN staff in Paris pretended to be EU parliamentary assistants in Brussels and Strasbourg to receive payments from EU funds. At that time, the party had a chronic shortage of money.

While few even in the RN expect Le Pen to be acquitted on appeal, it all depends on the sentence she receives on Tuesday.

At the first hearing, he was given a two-year prison sentence to be served at home via an electronic label. However, the court also ordered a five-year ban from public office. More importantly, it was announced that, unlike the prison sentence, this part of the sentence would take effect immediately and would not be suspended pending appeal.

An angry Le Pen declared that the decision was a “political decision” aimed at derailing her fourth and most promising presidential bid. Under pressure, the courts set an early date for the appeal so that there would be time for a possible sentence change.

At the second hearing, both sides put forward the same arguments. Le Pen’s lawyers requested acquittal. This time, the state’s lawyer asked for one year, not two, with an electronic tag, but again the key part: five years of disenfranchisement.

If the court follows the state’s counsel, Le Pen will clearly be out of the presidential race. In the unlikely event that he is acquitted, he will also openly take part in the race.

However, what preoccupies French jurists is the possibility of intermediate punishment. For example, what happens if the court decides to suspend the child for two years instead of five years?

In theory, this would allow it to survive, as it will expire on March 31, 2027, two years after the initial ruling, just two weeks before the first round of elections on April 18.

But if the court rules that she must wear an electronic tag for a year, then Le Pen herself says that would make her candidacy impossible. “A candidate needs complete freedom of action,” he said. “Can you imagine having to ask permission every time to go to a meeting or the market?”