Kalshi traders think Hormuz traffic won’t return to normal this year
Ships on shore at Khor Fakkan Container Terminal, the only natural deep-sea port in the region and one of the largest container ports in the Emirate of Sharjah, along the Gulf of Oman on June 28, 2026.
– | Afp | Getty Images
President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was “over” after the United States attacked the Islamic Republic following attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Now, traders on prediction market platform Kalshi are readjusting their outlook for when they see traffic on the flyway returning to normal.
Speculators now see only a 44% chance of traffic flows returning to normal by December 1. The earliest date they predict that traffic will return to normal is January 1, 2027, when the probability increases to 53%.
Kalshi defines normal traffic flow as a 7-day moving average of over 60 transit passages through the strait. The result is validated using data reported from IMF PortWatch.
Odds as to when traffic will return to normal have dropped sharply in the last few days. As recently as July 4, traders in Kalshi were saying there was a more than 50% chance that flows would return to normal from October 1.
Traders at Polymarket are a bit more optimistic; Speculators here think there is a 59% chance that traffic flow on the vital sea crossing will return to normal by December 31. Polymarket uses the same definition and data as Kalshi to settle contracts related to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Traffic in the strait is “suddenly far from normal,” Piper Sandler analyst Jan Stuart of Piper Sandler wrote in a note Wednesday.
“With the Bosphorus coming into play again, global oil supply is again very limited,” Stuart wrote. “Any hopes that commercial insurers would reduce their ‘war risk’ assessments within months have been dashed.”
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment.
