UN draws up new blueprint to end Cyprus crisis after 52 years of stalemate

An agreement drawn up by the United Nations to end the Cyprus crisis could end the 52-year impasse with a watered-down federal solution close to Türkiye’s demands for two separate states.

The possibility of a deal would be extremely important for the UK, given the ongoing situation of two sovereign bases on the island that are vital in dealing with problems in the Middle East.

This also follows an Iranian attack on one of these bases during the latest war launched by Donald Trump, and the relocation of the British destroyer HMS Dragon there to protect British and allied interests.

The Mediterranean island has been officially divided since 1974, following an attempt to unite the island with Greece following a military coup on the island and clashes between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots.

The intervention of the Turkish army on July 20, 1974 led to the division of the island between north and south, with the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) unilaterally declaring its independence in 1983.

But María Ángela Holguín, the UN secretary-general’s special envoy to Cyprus, is working on an agreement with the TRNC, arguing that the status of Turkish Cypriots is not treated equally as originally agreed when the island was granted independence from the British Empire in 1960.

Details seen by The Independent show Ms Holguin is proposing a looser solution within the EU, moving away from the federal model in previous negotiations.

He appears to have hoped for this structure to be what Greek Cypriots would call a federation and Turkish Cypriots to call a confederation, and to bridge the gap through deliberate “constructive ambiguity”.

With the support of the Turkish government in Ankara under the previous president of the TRNC, Ersin Tatar, Turkish Cypriots pressed for a pure two-state solution. However, TRNC’s new president, Tufan Erhürman, has adopted a more flexible approach since winning the election last year.

Most importantly, the draft UN settlement potentially creates two constituent states with political equality and a significant reduction in shared powers; Most day-to-day governance is handled by two states, with a small central body for things that cannot be left to either side.

However, in exchange for recognition and autonomy, the TRNC would have to give up territory, including the deserted town of Maraş (Maraş).

A rotating presidential council will be formed under the leadership of the two leaders for shared powers (ratio 2-1 or 3-1 in favor of the Greek Cypriot side); an inclusive council of Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot MPs instead of a directly elected federal parliament; a common cabinet consisting of roughly five or six ministries (foreign affairs, defence, home affairs/citizenship, finance, European affairs).

At least one casting vote for the election of a Turkish Cypriot minister in the Council of Ministers (the basis of genuine political equality) is proposed as a guarantee, but could become a sticking point in negotiations.

While the Cyprus government in the south wants the Turkish forces, which it sees as the occupation army, to withdraw from the island, the TRNC insists that it is there to protect them.

Türkiye and Greece will be replaced by a NATO formula that potentially allows for a small multinational presence on the island to deal with the guarantor system that Britain established in 1960.

The UN is understood to be looking at a two- or three-year transition period, with initial territorial returns (Marash first) and the gradual introduction of the Turkish Cypriot side’s “three Ds” (direct trade, direct flights and direct contacts), as well as the easing of Turkish restrictions and access to Turkish ports.

There is also hope for possible movement on natural gas use, and there is a clear link between a solution in Cyprus and the Turkey-EU agenda on the customs union, making this part of a broader EU-Turkey package.

It seems that TRNC President Erhürman is more ready to negotiate such a framework; Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides, on the other hand, is acting more hesitantly, balancing the process against domestic political pressures.

Decades of negotiations culminated in the last-minute rejection of the Annan agreement by the Greek Cypriots in 2004. An attempted negotiation in Crans Montangne ​​in 2017 nearly revived the agreement but also failed.

Spyros Miltiades, Deputy High Commissioner for Cyprus in London, said: “To my knowledge, there is no formal UN proposal to which either side has been asked to respond. The ideas floating around appear to be speculative rather than a concrete proposal or plan. Any meaningful progress would need to happen through the established UN-led process and within the agreed UN framework.”

TRNC President Erhürman said on his Facebook account: “Our people’s will for a solution is clear. We have expressed our support for the work of the UN Secretary-General and we continue to do so.

“We said that there was no plan, just some ideas (if anyone had doubts, I think they understood that there should be no doubts with the new statements.) However, we informed our Political Parties Assembly, our unions, our Youth Coordination Desk, our business organizations and everyone who wanted to be informed about the ideas.

“Our only concern is the rights, future, equality, security and interaction of our people, especially our children, with the world and the protection of the ‘subject’ position of the Turkish Cypriots.”

In a statement on July 1, Ms. Holguín said: “I am aware of the past efforts and difficult negotiations throughout history.

“I believe that Cypriots can cooperate and share a vision of the future for new generations. Cyprus truly has the potential to become a central regional actor, uniting around common interests, while respecting its internal characteristics and diversity.

“In this complex Eastern Mediterranean region, Cyprus can be a place where bridges are built in all directions and coexistence is encouraged. Thus, Cyprus can truly become an example for the region, for Europe and for the rest of the world.”