Analysis-After Hormuz, Iran turns to Red Sea gateway as new pressure point
By Samia Nakhoul
BEIRUT, July 14 (Reuters) – By halting ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is signaling it may play its most dangerous card yet: using Yemen’s Houthi allies to close the Bab al-Mandeb gate to the Red Sea, opening a new front against Washington and putting two of the world’s most vital energy arteries at risk.
As US attacks inside Iran deepen and Houthi attacks increase in parallel, analysts say Tehran is expanding the conflict and trying to increase pressure on Washington by spreading the threat to global trade and energy resources beyond the Gulf.
Iran has already demonstrated the power of its most valuable strategic asset by disrupting traffic through Hormuz. Now it looks poised to open a second pressure point at Bab al-Mandab, the narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden through which a significant portion of Saudi oil exports and global shipping passes.
A senior Yemeni official warned on Monday that the country’s armed forces were ready to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if Saudi Arabia continues to attack Yemen – a move he said could lead to oil prices rising to $200 a barrel, according to a report on Iran’s Press TV website.
Mohammed al Farah, a political bureau member of the Houthi resistance movement Ansarullah, said that Washington provoked Saudi Arabia to attack Yemen and that such a provocation would never be in the interest of the United States.
“If the current situation worsens, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed by an operational alliance. Oil prices will jump to $200 per barrel in a terrible shock,” he warned.
If Hormuz is Tehran’s strongest strategic lever, Bab al-Mandeb may be its last major reserve, analysts say.
“Iran is ready to go all the way,” Middle East expert Fawaz Gerges told Reuters. He said Tehran had shown Washington that it could threaten both crossing points simultaneously, turning the conflict from a bilateral conflict into a challenge to the sea lanes that support global energy trade.
“At the moment (Tehran) attacks are increasing both nearby and in general. The message is that not only Hormuz but also Bab al-Mandeb is at risk.”
‘MISSION CREEP’
Analysts say the danger is less a sudden return to all-out war than a slow but inexorable “mission creep” in which both sides increase the stakes without engaging in direct conflict.
As the conflict spreads from the Gulf to the Red Sea, the growing threat to trade and energy supplies could also increase pressure on Washington and Tehran to return to talks before the world’s two most important oil chokepoints become the conflict’s decisive battleground.
From Washington’s perspective, Dennis Ross, a former US Middle East peace negotiator, said: “The question is how do you change Iran’s calculus to the point where they are ready to talk again, but not just talk, but come to an acceptable arrangement.”
ATTACKS ON COMMERCIAL SHIPPING BY HUTHI
The Houthis have already shown that they can strangle global trade through Bab al-Mandeb. After the Gaza war broke out in October 2023, the Iran-backed group launched attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, saying it was targeting Israeli-linked ships supporting the Palestinians.
The campaign forced major shipping companies to reroute their ships around southern Africa, increasing shipping costs and prompting the deployment of a multinational naval mission alongside US and British air strikes to protect shipping.
Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, described the latest Houthi threat as “another nuclear option” for Iran after Hormuz; he could exercise this option only if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps concluded that a return to all-out war had become inevitable.
But Washington has warned that if Iran intensifies attacks on its critical infrastructure, Tehran could respond by using its Yemeni allies to close the Bab al-Mandeb, further compounding the economic shock already caused by the Strait of Hormuz.
Abdulaziz Sager, head of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, said Gulf states increasingly believe diplomacy with Iran has reached its limits, despite the high cost a wider conflict would impose on the region.
“Both a victorious Iran and a defeated Iran would have consequences for the region,” Sager said, adding that “many Gulf countries may consider the costs of the latter to be more acceptable if it leads to a more stable regional security environment.”
He said the Houthis have the ability to disrupt transportation in Bab al-Mandeb but are unlikely to escalate tensions without clear instructions from Tehran. He added that any attempt by the Houthis to threaten shipping could trigger a broader military response by the United States and its partners aimed at significantly reducing the group’s capabilities.
The war launched by the US and Israel in late February destabilized the Gulf and spread across the region, with Iran attacking US bases in many countries. Thousands of people were killed in the war, especially in Iran and Lebanon.
(Additional reporting by Mohammed Ghaobari in Sanaa and Tom Perry in Beirut; Writing by Samia Nakhoul; Editing by Ros Russell)
