Small boat arrivals to the UK are falling. But no one really knows why

S.Shopping mall boat crossings into the UK have almost halved, while irregular crossings into Europe have fallen by almost 40 per cent so far this year. Independent can reveal.

Analysis of Home Office data shows 12,214 people arrived in the UK on small boats as of July 9 this year; This is a 42 per cent decrease compared to 2025, when 21,117 people made the perilous journey across the Channel in the same period.

While immigration experts are clear that numbers are falling, it’s hard to know exactly why.

EU border officials have pointed out that partnerships in North Africa have reduced the number of onward journeys, but experts warn these deals come at a lethal cost.

Nearly 1,300 people have lost their lives in the Mediterranean so far this year, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

Here, Independent It examines how many people travel on migration routes to Europe and from there to the UK, and why this might be the case.

How many people come to the UK on small boats?

At the end of June this year, 11,884 migrants arrived by boats; That’s down 41 percent from the same period in 2025 — second only to the record-breaking 2022, which was a particularly high year for migrations — and down 12 percent in 2024.

Labor has tried to reduce the numbers by paying more money to the French police force to stop migrants leaving their shores and sending small boat migrants back to France in exchange for asylum seekers.

But the “one in, one out” scheme, which began in August 2025, has only removed a relatively small number of migrants. 1087 people were repatriated to France As of the end of June. There are reports that the French plan to end the program in October this year in order to focus on a Europe-wide strategy to combat irregular migration.

Why are the numbers of small boat migrants in the UK falling?

Senior researcher Dr. from Oxford University’s Migration Observatory. Mihnea Cuibus said it was difficult to identify any policy changes or factors that contributed to the decline in crossings.

He said: “Arrivals across Europe are down. They were down significantly last year as well, which is important because some delay is to be expected as people travel through Europe to the UK. The decline we saw last year may finally be reflecting on arrivals into the UK.”

“Another issue is the new agreement with France and the change in policies with the one in, one out scheme. The share of those sent to France has remained very low, so we cannot expect this to make a huge difference.

“There seems to be probably some impact [from the different policy changes]But there are other factors, such as arrivals into the EU.”

187 boats have arrived in the UK so far in 2026, compared to 362 in the same period last year. The size of boats has also increased significantly as smugglers adapt to increased police activity on the French coast. Larger boats now “taxi” off the coast of France and wait to pick up people offshore. In an indication of how big small boats have become, a record 128 migrants arrived on one boat this week.

The previous record was 125 people in September 2025. While 36,816 people came with 695 boats in 2024, a total of 41,472 people came with 672 boats last year.

However, the decrease in the number of visitors in the first half of 2026 compared to 2025 may be due to when most people arrived last year. Arrivals in 2025 spread throughout the year, starting with 4,568 people in March and continuing through the summer, with more than 5,000 arriving in September. But more people arrived in 2024 and 2023, and in October 2024, 5,417 people crossed.

This suggests that although arrivals have declined so far this year, more could make the journey in the second half of 2026.

Dr Cuibus warned: “Over the last five or six years we see these numbers moving up and down quite randomly from time to time. We still don’t understand why 2025 is so big, just as we don’t quite understand why there is an increase in the number of people, especially Albanians, in 2022.”

He added: “If this trend continues until the end of the summer, it will be very interesting. We are in a kind of waiting situation until we see the end of the summer.”

Where do small boat migrants come from?

Eritrea was the country with the highest number of arrivals last year, with more than double the number in 2024. Many are leaving the country to escape national service, which is mandatory for all citizens between the ages of 18 and 40, and civil or religious freedoms are almost completely suppressed in the country.

In 2023 and 2024, the number of people arriving from Afghanistan, the first country of origin, fell to second place in 2025 after peaking in 2022, the year after the Taliban took over; 8,319 people arrived in small boats.

Figures for the first three months of 2026 show that the figure in Eritrea is maintained; 743 citizens are passing through, compared to 735 Sudanese and 598 Afghans.

While there was a decrease in the number of citizens of Syria, Iraq and Vietnam in 2025, there was an increase in the number of citizens of Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia.

The number of Somalis crossing the canal increased from 697 in 2024 to 3,783 in 2025. This sharp increase comes after the jihadist group Al-Shabaab made major advances in its fight against the Somali government.

In Sudan, where the second largest number of small boat migrants come, the country is experiencing a serious humanitarian crisis after three years of civil war. According to the International Rescue Committee, more than 14 million people have been displaced and two-thirds of the population (33.7 million people) require humanitarian support.

Judith Sunderland of Human Rights Watch (HRW) said: “We’ve seen a massive exodus of people from Sudan, many of whom are stranded in Libya. We’ve already seen an increase in Sudanese boats heading to Europe, and if various factors come together there could be a really significant increase.”

Explaining migration flows more broadly, he added: “There are a lot of people on the move because they’re trying to improve their situation and the lives of their families. As long as there’s poor governance and poverty, people will try to find someone they think they might have a better chance at.”

Dr Cuibus explained that Syrians and Afghans were now less likely to be granted asylum in Europe than in previous years, and said this could be contributing to the decline in numbers arriving.

Irregular border crossings to Europe also decreased

Irregular crossings into Europe fell by almost 40 percent in the first five months of 2026 compared to the previous year, according to data from border agency Frontex.

Approximately 39,000 crossings were recorded between January and June; This decline was attributed to cooperation between the EU and Africa to increase police control at departure points. The West African route saw the steepest decline, with detections down 71 percent compared to the previous year.

The number of people coming to Italy from North Africa via the Central Mediterranean route, which is usually the busiest crossing, also decreased by 52 percent compared to the previous year, with 14,340 people making this journey so far in 2026.

Why are small boat services to Europe declining?

Ms Sunderland said the EU’s push to stop people traveling to Europe “causes enormous risks and suffering”. He explained that “people are essentially stranded in various places on their migration journey,” such as migrants who are sent back to detention camps in Libya when they are caught trying to cross the Mediterranean.

“Focusing on the numbers hides the pain behind this. It is based on many highly dubious deals pursued by the EU and individual member states, and on support for security forces in Libya, Tunisia, Mauritania and elsewhere,” he added.

Giorgia Meloni’s European Union-backed government in Italy funds, equips and trains both the Libyan and Tunisian coast guards to intercept people heading to Europe.

Human rights organizations this week called on the EU to stop funding Tunisia over the “reckless and violent behavior” of its security forces during interventions at sea.

The EU is also considering cooperating with Libya’s eastern powers to reduce the number of people launching boats from its shores, according to aid agency Statewatch.

Ms Sunderland explained that there were many factors that would affect the number of people boarding boats, such as weather, smuggling dynamics and the work of border forces.

“The numbers have decreased recently compared to the past few years, but they are still higher than they were six or seven years ago,” he explained.

He said those trapped in third-party countries, such as those in detention in Libya, will not give up their determination to move on. “They’ll keep trying. Very few come back. The people who set up smuggling networks are also adapting and changing.”

Dr Cuibus added: “The view is that all these agreements, such as greater cooperation with Libya, Tunisia and Morocco, seem to have an impact, because at the end of the day it is about physical interception. Experience suggests that physical sanctions can stop boats if you stop people transiting through countries, or at least temporarily divert them to other routes. But broader factors such as changes in the situation of home countries are also at play.”

The IOM spokesperson said: Independent: “While the number of irregular arrivals to Europe in 2026 is decreasing, the situation continues to require urgent intervention because too many people are still risking and losing their lives on dangerous migration routes.

“The Central Mediterranean remains the world’s deadliest migration route… Equally worrying is the increasing number of migrants who disappear without a trace, as evidence increases of so-called ‘invisible shipwrecks’ where ships disappear and their fate remains unknown.”