Five things to know after resumption of hostilities
A Syrian farmer looks at an Iranian missile that crashed into a farmland in the Najha district in the countryside of the Syrian capital after being intercepted by Israeli air defense systems on June 8, 2026.
Bekir Alkasem | Afp | Getty Images
It has been 10 days since US President Donald Trump announced that the ceasefire with Iran is “over”; Both sides renewed geopolitical uncertainty by launching military offensives.
U.S. Central Command hit Iran with 10 nights of continuous strikes, saying the strikes were intended to “weaken Iran’s capabilities to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Some points to note are:
Traffic flow in the Strait of Hormuz
Since the resumption of hostilities, shipping through the critical waterway has decreased as ships transited the strait when their transponders are offAccording to Lloyd’s analyst team.
Only 30 ships passed through the Bosphorus over the weekend business intelligence firm Kpler. Before the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, more than 100 ships passed through Hormuz every day.
But the Trump administration said the Strait remained open and millions of barrels of oil were shipped every day under US military protection.
Oil prices are on the rise
Renewed hostilities have caused oil prices to rise, along with international benchmarks Brent On July 20, it rose above the $90 level for the first time in more than a month. US crude futures It reached its highest point in a month on the same day.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical energy chokepoint, with approximately 20.3 million barrels of oil and crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz per day. US Energy Information Administration.
This accounts for approximately 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Almost 90% of these oil flows are exported to Asian markets; main destinations are China and India.
Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Access Middle East” on Monday that continued disruption in August, with inventory buffers largely depleted, could force Gulf production lower and send crude oil prices back into triple digits.
Iran’s ability to retaliate
Iran still has the power to harm the United States, its allies and assets in the region.
Strikes against commercial shipping caused concern; The latest victim was reportedly a ship operated by Greek shipping company Dynacom. Israeli media said this The ship caught fire after being hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite US attacks, Tehran can still launch missiles and drones; Their attacks on countries hosting American bases have recently led to the deaths of three more US soldiers.
US President Donald Trump vowed that Tehran would pay for the deaths “many times over” and added that the strait was open to everyone except Iran.
‘No good options’ to exit ramp
On Monday, axios, The news, based on sources familiar with the matter, stated that regional mediators such as Qatar and Pakistan offered a 10-day ceasefire to the USA and Iran, but Washington was also making preparations in case the talks failed.
Axios also reported that Israel is preparing to expand the war into a large-scale, coordinated operation within days.
Last week, Clemens Chay, a senior fellow in geopolitics at the Observer Research Foundation, described the situation to CNBC as a limited but expanding cycle of escalation.
In his view, Washington “had no good options.” The United States must either endure Iran’s war of attrition, escalate tensions despite regional opposition, or make concessions.
Saying that Iran holds its influence over Hormuz “like a key that it can turn on and off”, the Iranian warned that the simultaneous interruption of the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb would be a disaster for the global economy.
Relief valve is threatened
Houthi militants on Monday night He declared a naval embargo on Saudi Arabia to come into effect immediately, threatening to worsen the oil supply disruption triggered by Iran’s attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Houthis had repeatedly threatened to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait during the US-Iran war. The Bosphorus is a transit point for commercial ship traffic as well as oil exports from Saudi Arabia.
Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has diverted millions of barrels of oil per day through a pipeline to an export terminal in the Red Sea. These exports served as an important relief valve for global oil markets during the conflict.
Closing Bab al-Mandeb would clog these barrels and worsen the disruption triggered by Iranian attacks on tankers in Hormuz.
— CNBC’s Spencer Kimball contributed to this report.
