Will Trump’s economy sink Republicans in the US midterm elections? Our reporters take your questions live | US economy
Key events
How will the rising interest rates affect an already challenging housing market?
Kathleen OKeefe, Ringwood, NJ asks in a callout question: How will the rising interest rates affect an already challenging housing market?
Lauren: Interest rates have a direct impact on mortgage rates and other loans as it defines how much it costs to borrow money. At the beginning of the pandemic, the US Federal Reserve set interest rates to zero, bringing mortgage rates down to historic lows.This is why we saw a surge of activity in the housing market from 2020 to 2022. At the end of that period, the Fed started to bring interest rates up, bringing mortgage rates to the averages that we see today (over 7% for a 30-year mortgage). This has brought the housing market to a standstill, and even though interest rates are still lower than its most recent peak in 2023, mortgage rates haven’t really come down all that much. It was only this past February that the rate for a 30-year mortgage went below 6% for the first time since September 2022, and it’s only kept climbing.
How is Trump faring with independent voters after two years?
FetchCB001 asks: US politics is so polarised, you have a group who will always vote Republican regardless and a group who will never regardless. This tends to mean that elections are decided by the floaters. Is there any indication of how these voters have been impacted by the first two years of Trump 2?
Michael: Approval from independent voters for Trump’s presidency has declined throughout his second term; 43% of independent voters supported him during his presidential campaign in 2024. By April 2026, that support declined to 26%. A September 2026 YouGov survey found that 23% of independents approve of Trump, compared with 79% of Republicans and 2% of Democrats. A September poll conducted by Fox News found 73% saying Trump has made the economy worse, compared to 95% of Democrats and 26% of Republicans.
Voters wait for a polling station to open on the first day of early voting in the state, in Raleigh, North Carolina, US, October 15, 2026. Photograph: Jonathan Drake/Reuters
Gaya: Our polling with Harris earlier this summer captured the angst and frustration that rural American voters are feeling in today’s economy, often more so than their urban and suburban counterparts. Here’s what we found about rural voters :
– 70% say that the federal government has made the affordability crisis either significantly or somewhat worse in 2026
– 64% believe that the national economy is getting worse; 57% believe that their local economy is getting worse
– Nearly half believe that their financial security is getting worse
– 46% say they are just getting by, while 29% say they are struggling to make ends meet
– 57% say they have trouble affording groceries, compared to 55% and 47% of urban and suburban voters
How seriously does Trump’s base take his promises of cash if he wins the midterms?
Mr_202: I’d love to know how seriously Trump’s base take his promises of bribes and sunny uplands. The DOGE cheques, the tariff rebates, the cheques in the post if he wins the midterms. Do these people honestly believe the money will come and if not, do they care that it’s being promised? Do they think they’re getting half price, commandeered Venezuelan oil any time soon? Thank you for your attention to this matter and keep bringing the cold hard truths.
Heather: About one million Americans should start seeing checks of about $500 each related to what the White House called Obamacare refunds before they go to the polls. (Some reports suggest that money is coming from funds previously used to support healthcare signup and the website that it uses.) Trump has also promised 20 million seniors a $90 check for Medicare fees. These appear to be happening, but the promised DOGE and tariffs rebates, as you note, never did. It’s unclear how he would fund a promise to give voters $5,000 after the midterms if Republicans win, especially because few lawmakers in his party have publicly supported that idea. While it’s hard to evaluate where the diehard “Forever Trumpers” are on believing what the President says, Republicans’ optimism about the economy overall has taken a nosedive. In February 2025, 39% of Republicans said the economy was getting better and by February 2026 that optimism was up to 49%. In our latest Harris poll, that number dropped to 28%.
Which utility has seen the biggest surge under Trump?
From an Instagram user: What utility has seen the biggest surge in pricing since 2nd Trump administration?
Gaya: We can answer this by looking at data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Utility gas services increased at an annual rate of 5% this month, slightly more than the 4.4% increase in electricity. Last year, in Trump’s first September in office, gas services had increased by 11.7% compared to the year before, while electricity increased by 5.1%.
Looking more broadly at energy commodities — which don’t necessarily show up as a monthly bill, but can still affect overall household expenses — we can see that fuel oil, which is used to heat homes and offices, increased by 74.2% compared to the year before. (In comparison, fuel oil had increased by just 4.1% in the September 2025 report).
Do lower-income Americans tend to vote Republican?
Grauniad9999: A question my 16-year-old asked me that I couldn’t answer well. Why is support for conservative parties in the UK mostly comprised of the well-off, where in the US the equivalent is mostly supported by poorer, non-college folks?
Michael: I think that’s more perception than reality, especially as the Democratic Party has been grappling with criticism of losing working class support, while Republicans and the Trump administration have pushed narratives that working class, including union members have been increasingly supportive of Trump, but that is not the case based on exit polls. Pew Research found in 2024 that lower income, lower middle income, and high income voters leaned Democrat, while upper middle and middle income voters leaned Republican.
Politicians say the US economy is growing – is it actually?
Clifford Weiler, San Diego, CA asks in a callout question: Politicians cite how the economy is improving, but how is the rising rate of inflation taken into account?
Lauren: What growth in the economy means really depends on who you’re talking to. For economists, economic growth is measured by gross domestic product (GDP), which is an equation adding together consumption, investment, government spending and net exports. A little inflation can actually stimulate further growth, as long as it doesn’t lead to a pullback in spending. That’s why the US Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate is 2% (something that hasn’t been seen since January 2021 – for context, it was 3.7% in September).
For both economists and politicians, inflation really only becomes a bad thing when it starts to impact consumer spending. When prices get too high and consumers start spending less money, the wheels of the economy can start to slow. Even though inflation has been high, and consumers are anxious about the economy, we haven’t yet seen a large pullback in spending that would cause alarm over growth.
Lauren continues: For many goods and services, economists actually think prices going down as a bad thing for the overall economy that can trigger a downtown. There are some major exceptions, energy prices being a big one. If the US and Iran ever reach a peace deal, and oil transportation and reduction goes back to normal, gas prices will go down. This is what we saw in 2022, once the energy market recalibrated for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After high periods of inflation, certain food prices can also go down. The cost of eggs is about 20% lower than they were a year ago, when prices were high because of avian-flu related shortages.
For both economists and politicians, inflation really only becomes a bad thing when it starts to impact consumer spending. When prices get too high and consumers start spending less money, the wheels of the economy can start to slow. Even though inflation has been high, and consumers are anxious about the economy, we haven’t yet seen a large pullback in spending that would cause alarm over growth.
Are moderate Republican candidates distancing themselves from Trump in the face of his unpopular policies?
NorthLondonIsRed asks: For years, more moderate Republicans seemed to have little choice but to align with Trump to win their primaries and general elections. With the Iran war and rising prices straining many voters, could the incentives now flip, so that distancing themselves from Trump becomes the safer path in November? And are any Republicans already making that calculation?
Michael: Yes, there have been several Republican candidates who have attempted to distance themselves from Trump, given his low approval ratings that have been in the 30s. In September, Republican Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar released an ad saying Trump’s immigration policies have gone too far.
“In July, 50% of the 50,000 people that were detained had no criminal record. Be careful what your advisers are telling you about immigration policy,” she said in the ad.
In California, Republican Congresswoman Young Kim has dropped references to Trump from her campaign website and digital materials, as she faces a tight re-election battle.
Other candidates have removed mentions of focuses of Trump from campaign websites, such as Florida Republican Governor candidate Byron Donalds, but denied the changes were a dig at Trump.
Heather: Another place we’re seeing some Republicans break with Trump is on tariffs, which is a direct response to the anger over their impacts. Trump’s former VP Mike Pence (who is not running for anything, but still gets an ear in some Washington circles) has been the loudest voice on this in the party, and Michigan’s Mike Rogers recently issued an ad calling for an end to the tariff war with Canada.
Why are labor unions in the US not as organized as unions in other countries?
LucccA asks: Why are labor unions in the US still not as well-organized compared to the rest of the world? I know there was a push against them in the past—does that still have an effect today? Also, why are there so many right-leaning unions in the US?
Michael: A lot of reasons. The US has low union density compared to other wealthy nations, currently at 10.0%, and that has been on a precipitous decline for the past few decades for a variety of reasons that include anti-union and union busting campaigns, outdated labor laws where employers often retaliate for union organizing or delay bargaining for years, as we are seeing with Starbucks, where there is no union contract after nearly five years since the first store won its union election in December 2021.Right to work laws in the US also undermine labor unions and starve them of resources. To the extent that there are right leaning labor unions in the US, they typically are law enforcement unions that consistently endorse and back Republican candidates despite the Republican Party in the US opposing collective bargaining. Some unions like the Teamsters have been making efforts to get Republicans to support legislation and in turn receive endorsements from the union, and this has shown up this election cycle with the Teamsters endorsing Republicans like Congressman Max Miller or Kansas Senator Roger Marshall, who are both facing very competitive re-election battles.
Do Democrats have an edge on bringing down costs of living?
John Rossi from Pennsylvania asks in a callout question: What policies have candidates running for Congress or governorships proposed to bring down the cost of health care, housing, groceries, energy and other utilities such as water? Can Democrats/the Democratic Party make reforms to reject big corrupting donations and win elections?
Heather: There’s a bunch of ideas floating around on cutting costs for groceries, healthcare and energy bills. A key thing Democrats are promising if they regain power in Congress is to wrestle back authority on trade and repeal Trump’s tariffs, which would lower what it costs compaines to import. A second is to advance a vote to stop the war in Iran, which could calm fuel prices. If Democrats retake the Senate, expect Elizabeth Warren to become chair of the powerful banking committe, and push forward some curbs on private equity investments. And Democrats have been coalescing around more government funding for childcare, a notable move to the left in recent years. Hakeem Jeffries, who will be House Speaker if Democrats win there, is promising to reinstate ACA tax cuts and roll back Medicaid cuts, but the party is divided on Medicare For All, with DSA candidates making promises on the campaign trail and more centrist Dems being pretty quiet.
Republicans running for Congress have been talking a lot about ways to lower gas prices, especially suspending the fuel tax, and shaving utility bills by making tech companies and other big users pay more. Some have promised to curb Trump’s tariffs, including Michigan’s Mike Rogers, and others are proposing suspending data center building after public backlash.
Is California on track to approve the billionaire tax?
Kathryn Kinsel from California says in a callout comment: I hope California’s billionaire tax measure is approved. It is long since time that wealthy people were taxed more. I’m worried about its passage, because of course, the billionaires are spending enormous amounts to sway voters.
Heather: California’s billionaire tax vote will be an interesting view into whether this popular sentiment (the US should tax the very rich more) can be translated into law. A majority of Americans from both parties think billionaires are increasing inequality and not contributing their fair share, as this November Harris poll showed. But California’s Democratic Governor (and possible 2028 presidential candidate) Gavin Newsom is oppposing the measure, and backing Proposition 42 which would prohibit retroactive taxes on any any billionaire who lived in California on Jan. 1, 2026 and prohibit new taxes on personal property.
Michael: Polling has been a bit all over the place on the California billionaire tax measure, California Prop. 40 Wealth Tax Initiative. 12 out of 16 polls conducted show ‘yes’ votes leading on the ballot, most by single digits. 5 polls conducted in September 2026 have ‘yes’ votes leading, with 2 polls showing ‘no’ votes leading.
Will Democrats reverse the Big Beautiful Bill if they retake Congress?
Patricia, Huntington Beach, CA asks in a callout question: When the Democrats take back the House and the Senate will they reverse the Big Beautiful Bill? What are some possible scenarios to reverse the damage caused by that legislation?
Heather: Once tax cuts are passed, they’re hard to rescind, as the Biden administration found when it tried to undo some of the “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” of Trump’s first term with proposals to raise corporate tax rate and increase wealth taxes. (Instead, Biden passed an “Inflation Reduction Act” that included more targeted tax breaks for green energy and a corporate minimum tax). House Democrats have promised to quickly rescind Medicaid cuts and reinstate health care credits changed by the BBB, but with so many other things on their plate, completely revamping the tax code (again) may not be a the top priority. If California’s billionaire tax passes, that could fuel momentum for a federal version.
Is universal healthcare gaining traction in Washington?
Katie from Connecticut asks in a callout question: Will the active collapse of the healthcare system happening right now finally force single payer healthcare as an “on the table” subject?
Heather: Absolutely. Washington’s progressive economic think tanks are already busy drawing up proposals for what a plan would look like, and the more “centrist” Dems are stockpiling arguments about why it is a bad idea. Expect universal healthcare to be one of the big ideological battles inside the Democratic Party if they regain power in both houses of Congress, as leaders also debate swinging for the fences on economic ideas vs. investigating the Trump administration.
The Guardian US’s Health reporter Jessica Glenza did a great breakdown on the Democratic divide on single payer this month. If Democrats retake the House but not the Senate, the idea is probably shelved for two more years. Republican candidates are also talking about healthcare costs, and the White House has issued a one page pledge to negotiate drug prices and limit payments to insurers but the details remain unclear.
Instead of single payer, Republican candidates are talking about things like curbing Medicare fraud and making hospital billing more transparent.
Are Republican voters blaming Trump and their party for economic woes?
Tom in the UK asks in a callout question: How much is Trump himself and the Republicans more widely being seen as responsible for the economy woes amongst Republicans? What are the messages on spurring the economy that the Democrats are making?
Lauren Aratani: In the results from the Guardian’s newest poll with Harris Poll, it’s clear that many Republicans are unhappy about the economy, but they seem conflicted on who is responsible. When asked who or what is most responsible for today’s gas prices – the US federal government, oil companies, the Iranian government or natural economic fluctuations – over half of Democrats and Independents said it is the federal government, while just 28% of Republicans said the same.
One interesting thing that stuck out in the poll is that Democrats were slightly more enthusiastic about their party’s ability to have a solution for the affordability than Republicans: 71% of Democrats said that their party has the solution, compared to 59% of Republicans. But that, of course, still means that many Republicans still back their party.
When it comes to how the midterms are likely to turn out, these party loyalists won’t be the deciding factor in key races. It’ll be independents, along with disenchanted voters who showed up in 2024 but are staying home on election day. Our poll, along with the many others that have asked Americans how they feel about the economy, really show widespread frustration that will likely show up in some way or form come November 3.
Heather: The Democrats’ key message has been: Trump’s war in Iran and tariffs are hurting the economy, and if you elect us we have a plan to stop both. They have also been stressing another issue recently that they’re tying to Trump and Republicans – corruption. We saw Texas Senate candidate James Talarico end a long town hall last night that spent a lot of time on Christianity with a message about his opponent Ken Paxton’s jump in net worth in office and ethical scandals, saying the election was “about whether we will have a senator who puts money in your pocket, or a senator who puts money in their own.”
Why does economic self-interest motivate American voters?
semitone asks: What do we make of an electorate that will twice elect a known sex pest and adjudged sex abuser, a proud racist and inveterate liar who has fawned over despots and tyrants, made the world less safe, caused or contributed to millions of avoidable deaths, launched at least one illegal war etc, but begins to change its mind about him when diesel hits $6 a gallon? Do we congratulate Americans voting against Trump for the first time, or is this just a continuation of their self-interest?
Heather: This question is one that plenty of Americans are asking too, and one that’s fueled debates at dinner tables, on Facebook pages and at high school reunions. There are a lot of messy, angry conversations and plenty of bitterly divided families, offices and even churches – and the whole situation is exacerbated by the fact that we’re swimming in a sea of misinformation and biased alogrithms that colors what people believe about those things. But the bottom line is, people vote on pocketbook issues (even over democracy issues, as this Northwestern University survey found). If you can’t afford to get to work or feed your family or pay your rent, that’s an undeniable reality, not an Instagram meme, and that is usually going to be more important than what that guy in the White House is doing or what’s happening in another country.
What is Trump’s response to concerns about inflation and affordability?
NambuccaBarry says: So good that Trump has discovered the word ‘affordability’, just as his cuts to Medicaid, SNAP and ACA subsidies are starting to hurt struggling Americans.
Michael: Trump has continued denying inflation and affordability concerns. During two campaign rallies in Arizona and Montana attended by Trump yesterday, Trump blamed inflation on Joe Biden.
“He gave us the highest inflation in history,” Trump said, who also claimed prices are declining.
When Trump took office, inflation was at 3.0% in January 2025 for the preceding 12 months. In September 2026, inflation was at 3.7%. Trump also said “we have very little inflation” and denied tariffs contributing to inflation. Consumer sentiment dropped to 46.3 in October 2026, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment, the second lowest rating on record, with 70% of Americans saying they will either cut back (54%) or stop (16%) spending in response to inflation.
Has Trump delivered on his promises to lower costs for Americans?
Ashleigh Ewald from Georgia asks in a callout question: President Trump made a lot of promises about lowering costs for Americans, especially energy prices. But how much have things actually changed since he took office? Are people really saving money, or are they still feeling the same financial pressures? And when gas or oil prices go up, how much of that is actually because of the president’s policies versus things happening around the world?
Gaya Gupta: These are great questions. Let’s start with your point about energy prices.
On the campaign trail, Trump vowed to lower gas prices to below $2 and slash the country’s energy bills by half. However, as a direct result of the US-Israel war with Iran, energy prices have shot up significantly this year. The US and Iran have been battling for control of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway near Iran through which about a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through. With the Strait largely closed since war broke out in February, oil prices have skyrocketed — brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, was below $68 a month before the war started, and now, it’s above $100. Though Trump has said several times this year that a peace deal with Iran has been near, their peace agreements have ultimately collapsed, as Trump has refused deals that don’t involve Iran dismantling its nuclear program. So, the war continues.
All of this has significantly impacted the price Americans see at the gas pump (I’ve certainly noticed a difference when filling up my car!). The national average gas of price is more thna a dollar more expensive than a year ago. These prices have directly fluctated alongside negotiations between the US and Iran for a peace deal. Overall, researchers at Brown University estimate that American households have had to spend over $1k more so far this year on gas and diesel, as a direct result of the war.
Michael Sainato: Cumulative inflation since December 2024 is 5.9%. Inflation has largely been driven by a surge in gas and oil prices this year. Gas prices have set a record for the highest number of days in a calendar year with the average price for a gallon above $4.
Trump began conducting military strikes in Iran on 28 February, 2026. Gas prices surged as a result, due to the disruption to production and supplies. Some analysts warned if flows through the Strait of Hormuz weren’t restored, oil prices would jump to over $100 a barrel. According to the Energy Information Administration, oil prices averaged $114 per barrel in September 2026.
“The disruption creates a dual supply shock: not only are current exports through the strait halted, but Opec+ additional volumes and ultimately most of Opec’s spare capacity – typically a key lever for balancing the global oil market – are inaccessible while the waterway remains closed,” analysts at the energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a note in early March 2026.
By the end of March 2026, average gas prices jumped $1 a gallon to $3.98. Today, the current US average for a gallon of gas is $4.33 as the military conflict in Iran has continued. Trump’s tariffs have also contributed to inflation and increased costs for the typical US household, with the non partisan Yale Budget Lab estimating US household costs annually at about $1,100 due to tariffs.
Heather Timmons: Americans are also feeling increasingly sqeezed and frustrated by the extreme “financialization” rampant in the US economy right now. Companies have been using tech tools and making up new fees to maximize the amount they can charge customers and tenants; private equity companies are taking over vets and dentists and fast food and yanking prices sky high while cutting quality. And wages aren’t keeping up with that or inflation. So there’s a lot of anger and frustration out there in general — some of this helped Trump get reelected in 2024, and the question many Democrats are asking on the campaign trail is ‘Do you feel better off than you did two years ago?” We are exploring this growing frustration here at the Guardian, would love to hear from you at consumed@theguardian.com
Welcome to the conversation
Welcome to our latest US midterms live Q&A.
With just over two weeks to election day on 3 November, the US economy is top of voters’ minds. Food and gas prices remain high, the job market is unstable, consumers are angrier than ever, and a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, took over this year.
A team of business, labor and consumer rights reporters are here to answer your questions about the economy and how it could shape the midterm results. They’ve covered inflation, cost of living increases, tariffs, labor, policy proposals and more.
Joining us on Thursday at 12pm ET on the Guardian US site: business reporter Lauren Aratani, labor reporter Michael Sainato, consumer and corporate rights reporter Heather Timmons, and business reporter Gaya Gupta.
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