RBI repo rate unchanged: Economists decode Reserve Bank of India’s big monetary policy call
MPC also decided to maintain his neutral policy attitude. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that the impact of 100 BPS on the economy has still improved since February 2025. “Therefore, in balance, existing macroeconomic conditions, appearance and uncertainties expect 5.5 percent of the policy repo ratio to continue and the ratio of the pre -loaded ratio to the credit markets and the wider economy will be transmitted further.” He said.
What economists said about the unchanged repo ratio:
Madhavi ARORA, Chief Economist, EMKAY Global Financial Services:
Although it reduces inflation forecast from 3.7% to 3.7% to 3.1%, the decision to keep the RBI rates constant, despite the global uncertainty, the growth in its views continues to focus on expected inflation over 4%. However, focusing on the expected inflation that lasted for a year seems to be increasingly incorrectly placed in a developing world, especially as the global landscape continues to shift towards a disflantist prejudice in Asia. We think that the negative risks for growth with new global resets will be increasingly more pronounced, and even though the governor seems to have raised the bar higher to further alleviate, we still think that it can still open a space to alleviate the rest of the year.
Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank:
The decision to keep MPC’s proportions unchanged comes after global uncertainties, even if inflation continues to be benign and negative risks to growth. With a higher task tendency of inflation, close -term positive tendencies have been adjusted very high for the next ratio interruptions. If only the growth moment slows down significantly, we can see a place for the last leg of termination.
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited:
MPC’s decision to keep the repo rate by 5.5% can be defined as a ‘Dowish pause’, while reducing CPI inflation forecast from 3.7% to 3.1% for 26 fy. Believing on the floor of good monsoon and kharif sowing, the inflation is well attached and allows MPC to go for another ratio deduction in this ratio cutting cycle. The opinion of the Governor of the RBI, uz We are waiting for the transmission of the pre -loaded ratio deduction ”is the correct opinion under the current conditions. While continuing with a neutral policy stance, this dovish pause policy is good for banking and other proportions.
Garima Kapoor, Economist and Assistant General Manager Elara Capital:
The geopolitical environment surrounded the environment and waited for the conclusion of the consequence of previous ratio interruptions, RBI’s MPC decided to change rates. On the inflation front, although the inflation projection for FY26 was 60bps, the RBI was largely guided by volatile foodstuffs. Although we expect MPC to reduce the proportions that alleviate the uncertainties and inflation dynamics, the decision to maintain the current pause can also make you think of keeping dust dry.
Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, Careedge
The decision of RBI’s decision to release unchanged was compatible with our expectations. Although inflation has fallen sharply in the last few months, the Central Bank reiterated that they would look at the inflation forecast for the next neighborhoods. Given the low base of this year, the CPI inflation will rise over 4% in 4 FY26 and an average of 4.5% in 27 financial years. This implies that we are looking at a real interest rate between 1-1.5% next year and even lower. This limits the scope of any interrupted rate in this cycle. Even when emphasizing concerns about the external sector, the Central Bank chose to change the GDP growth projection to 6.5%, 6.4%higher than our projection and 6.5%. Considering that the US trade policy is still very uncertain, we kept our growth forecast unchanged, while the high tariff implemented by the USA is still very uncertain. In addition, there are factors such as a healthy monsoon, low inflation and low income tax load that will support growth this year.
