Does a Plaid Cymru win mean Welsh independence could be on the horizon?
“As the Welsh National Party, the party’s aims are: To secure the independence of Wales in Europe.”
Since its formation in 1925, independence has remained a fundamental principle of Plaid Cymru; in fact, the above quote even forms the second line of his constitution. Plaid secured the most seats in the next Welsh parliament for the first time, as Labor lost control of the Senedd for the first time since devolution in 1999, and even first minister Eluned Morgan suffered from Labour’s disastrous losses. However, unlike in previous years, Plaid’s leader Rhun ap Iorwerth did not run an independence campaign, and further talk of the referendum came from the party’s political rivals, who once in power tried to warn voters that the referendum would be implemented “through the back door”.
The issue was not raised once in Ap Iorwerth’s speech at Plaid’s annual conference in Newport in February, nor was it mentioned at the manifesto launch in Wrexham. In the last Senedd elections in 2021, the party promised to hold a referendum if it won a majority, a promise that was quietly abandoned in this year’s campaign.
But for the first time in history, Westminster faces the prospect of a nationalist party ruling each of the devolved nations, all pushing for greater powers; So what are Plaid Cymru’s independence plans?
Professor Laura McAllister, of the Center for Governance Wales, said: “Given that independence is Plaid Cymru’s core aim, it is inconceivable that the party has not internally considered a longer-term strategy to advance this aim. In saying this, party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has been categorical that the first term of the Plaid-led government will not focus on independence.”
Instead, ap Iorwerth prioritized the cost of living crisis; the state of the NHS failing to meet its targets to reduce waiting lists; housing and a better deal for Wales under the current constitution. Its next steps include a national commission that would cost half a million pounds of Wales’ £27bn annual budget, which it said would “form the basis” of future independence plans.
Recent polls have shown little support for Welsh independence; Only 32 percent are in favor and 52 percent are opposed. Although Ap Iorwerth continues to believe in the cause personally, he admitted during his campaign: “I don’t think now is the time to have this referendum, because the people of Wales are not telling us that time has come.” But Prof McAllister said this tactic was “well outside the SNP’s 2007 playbook” and that poll support for independence was similar to the situation two years before the 2014 referendum rejecting independence in Scotland.
Plaid Cymru has set up the election as a “two-horse race” between itself and Reform UK, which is staunchly opposed to further devolution, as Labor suffered a humiliating defeat on Thursday, dropping it to third place in its former red centres.
Many saw this as a choice between those who saw themselves as more Welsh and those who saw themselves as more English; Nigel Farage even described the Welsh language as “foreign”.
“In terms of voters who are motivated against independence, I think they will already be captured by Reform UK,” Prof McAllister said. “It’s harder to predict in the future because we don’t know what a tartan-led government will do and when. But if independence becomes a defining issue in Welsh politics, as it is in Scottish politics, then I think we’ll see a fundamental realignment that cuts across left-right lines.”
