Here are the 4 big things we’re watching in the stock market in the week ahead
Investors will have a lot on their plate next week. Earnings season is coming to an end and several important economic updates are coming our way, against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Iran. Another volatile week could be on the way. 1. The most important thing to watch is the US-Iran war. Whether you’re on Wall Street or Main Street, you’re already feeling the effects of rising energy prices. As we explained in an article last week, the massive increase in oil prices not only squeezes consumers at the pump and gives them fewer dollars to spend on the products our companies sell, it also means that these companies must face rising input costs and make difficult choices about how to deal with it. Deteriorating conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have put upward pressure on oil prices, possibly greater than the small number of documented attacks on oil infrastructure. Traders are worried about supply disruptions, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing in the Bosphorus. This vital waterway, through which about 20 million barrels of crude oil passes through on a typical day – about a fifth of global oil consumption – has been effectively closed for fear that Iran or its proxies could attack anything that passes through it. This is obviously problematic. This has an impact on production because countries do not have enough storage capacity to hold the oil they will export via the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait has scaled back oil production as storage space runs out, and even bigger cuts could follow, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday. On Friday, the Trump administration announced a $20 billion reinsurance program for oil tankers in an effort to restart maritime traffic in the Bosphorus. Time will tell whether it will work or not. Investors also need to consider where most of the Persian Gulf oil will go. Best destination? Chinese. China is the world’s largest crude oil importer. Some estimates suggest that more than 80 percent of Iran’s crude oil goes to China. Another way to think of this is that about 50% of China’s oil imports pass through the Strait. Although China has reserves and is rapidly increasing its stockpiles, we note this to highlight the serious ripple effects for everyone. And this could also be extremely negative for China, which is reportedly in talks with Iran about allowing oil ships to pass safely through the Bosphorus. In addition to being the world’s second largest economy, the United States and China already have a tense “enemies” relationship, and we do not want that relationship to become even more tense. Anything that angers Beijing enough to increase pressure on Taiwan will potentially bring bigger problems. The vast majority of the world’s most advanced chips are produced in Taiwan, so anything that would shake up the supply chain would be negative for the stock market and the global economy. As we continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East, we do not want to minimize the human cost of this conflict. But in the context of the investment world and what this means for corporate earnings, the market is focused on how quickly the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened to keep global oil supplies flowing. 2. The most important economic report of the week comes on Wednesday morning; We’re taking the consumer price index for February, and that carries clues about Federal Reserve policy. As of Friday, economists expect a 2.4% annual increase in the headline CPI level, according to FactSet. We’d normally choose Friday’s core PCE price index as the report to watch because that’s the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. However, due to delays related to the government shutdown, PCE data released Friday is from January. This means we need to be careful that it is even more backwards than ever. In fact, although these two inflation reports are some of the most important monthly economic reports we receive in any given month, we should point out that both should be treated with some caution this time around, as neither will reflect the fact that America is currently at war with Iran. In other words, these reports will not reflect the rise in oil or any changes in consumer behavior as a result of this development. But we can use them to measure whether other important inflation factors, such as housing costs, actually fell before the war. From here, we can adjust our inflation outlook according to how long the rise in oil prices will last. Remember: Markets are forward-looking. While we always pay close attention to economic data to better understand the present and future, it is important to remember that how the market reacts to the data is a function of future expectations. Therefore, the inferences we draw from these reports will need to take into account the latest geopolitical developments. Apart from these inflation updates, be sure to keep an eye out for the Job Opportunities and Labor Turnover Survey (also known as the JOLTS report) released on Friday morning. Investors use this report to gauge labor market tightness, which affects expectations for wage inflation; In a hot labor market, businesses need to pay to attract talent, but when the number of job seekers far outweighs open positions, less financial incentive is needed. The JOLTS report also measures labor demand. Simply put, are businesses trying to hire people? It also includes the “turnover rate,” which is a way to understand whether employees feel comfortable enough to leave voluntarily. The softer the job market, the lower you would expect the turnover rate to be. After Friday’s dismal jobs report, investors are trying to figure out whether February’s 92,000 job losses were a flash in the pan or a harbinger of more payroll cuts as the adoption of artificial intelligence by companies increases. Of course, this adoption makes workers more productive, but the concern is that more productivity per worker ultimately means fewer workers. Some argue that AI will lead to new jobs and even require more talent as productivity increases and potentially triggers greater demand. Others rightly worry that the outcome could be just the opposite, as companies try to reduce headcount to offset rising costs elsewhere. There is also a middle ground view, where AI leads to more jobs in the long run, but only after a very disruptive transition period. This isn’t the kind of debate that can be resolved overnight. But for now, any comments about labor market weakness will be viewed negatively. Additionally, on Friday we’ll get our second look at U.S. fourth-quarter GDP growth, as well as several important updates on the housing market. On Tuesday, we’ll get February existing home sales data, followed by January housing starts data on Thursday. Within our portfolio, Home Depot is the stock that has benefited the most from the increase in housing market activity. 3. We’ll also watch how the market grapples with stagflation concerns, the Fed’s newfound problem. It’s a term we should expect to hear more often following the rise in oil prices and the weak jobs report in February. In fact, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned of the risks in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Friday afternoon. Stagflation, a portmanteau of the words “recession” and “inflation”, is an economic nightmare that occurs when unemployment rises alongside the rise in inflation. The war-related rise in oil prices is fueling inflation concerns, just as we learned the U.S. economy was losing jobs in February when economists expected to see gains. This dynamic puts the Fed in a real bind: a weaker labor market means they must lower interest rates, but a sustained rise in inflation forces them to raise interest rates. Of course, it does not constitute a month. This is a trend that Goolsbee acknowledged in the interview, and we may learn that it is an aberration. But the dynamic is too important to ignore. They are nervous about the impact of artificial intelligence on the job market and the impact of the Iran war on the energy market. So we suspect we’ll be hearing more about this in the coming weeks. 4. Finally, although there are no Club names on the calendar, we still have some earnings reports on our radar. We’ll double-check on the status of data center demand with Hewlett Packard Enterprise due to report Monday evening and Oracle scheduled for Tuesday night. Drone manufacturer AeroVironment will present additional insights into global defense spending against the backdrop of war in the Middle East. Dick’s Sporting Goods and Dollar General before the bell on Thursday, and Ulta Beauty on Thursday night, between those four, we’ll get a detailed insight into how consumers are spending their money. We’ll be keeping a close eye on comments on whether spending behavior has changed since prices at the pump began rising last week. One of our favorite sell-side voices, JPMorgan retail analyst Matt Boss, put some numbers on this dynamic Friday afternoon on CNBC: “The metric is a 30% increase in gas. [prices]Essentially what you’ve seen so far in oil represents about a $9 billion headwind to consumer spending. However… February tax refunds increased by 10%. This actually means a headwind of roughly $9 billion to $10 billion. So, in March and April, if this continues, these two will completely destroy each other.” Finally, Thursday night offers fallen market darling Adobe, one of the best-known companies in the software-as-a-service (SaaS) space, a chance to explain why fears of AI disruption are overblown. Sentiment around the SaaS group has quietly improved after a brutal sell-off at the start of 2026, with Adobe shares ending Friday up about 15% from February 2026, the lowest in 23 years. closing adds another layer of interest to the report Monday, March 9 Before the bell: ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM) After the bell: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Voyager Technologies (VOYG), Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA), Casey’s General Stores (CASY), LifeMD (LFMD), Vail Resorts (MTN) Tuesday, March 10 10 a.m. ET: Current Home Sales Before the bell: NIO. (NIO), Kohl’s (KSS), ABM Industries (ABM), Priority Technology Holdings (PRTH), Uranium Energy (UEC), BioNTech (BNTX), United Natural Foods (UNFI) After the bell: Oracle (ORCL), AeroVironment (AVAV), Auna (AUNA), Avino Silver & Gold Mines (ASM), Evolv Technology (EVLV), Franco-Nevada (FNV), Kodiak AI (KDK), Concrete Pumping Holdings (BBCP), Beachbody Company (BODI), Cadre Holdings (CDRE) Wednesday, March 11 8:30 AM ET: Consumer Price Index Before the bell: Campbell Soup (CPB) After the bell: UiPath (PATH), Netskope (NTSK), Stitch Fix (SFIX), Algoma Steel Group (ASTL), Bumble (BMBL), Descartes Systems Group (DSGX), Viant Technology (DSP), Petco Health and Wellness Company (WOOF) Thursday, March 12 8:30 AM ET: Initial Unemployment Claims 8:30 AM ET: Housing Begins Before the bell: DICK’S Sporting Goods (DKS), Dollar General (DG), Li Auto (LI) After the bell: Adobe (ADBE), Rubrik (RBRK), SentinelOne (S), Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), ServiceTitan (TTAN), Green Dot (GDOT) Friday, March 13 8:30 a.m. ET: Gross Domestic Product 8:30 a.m. ET: Personal Expenditure and Income 10 a.m. ET: JOLT Jobs (See here for a full list of stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) 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