Do Reform or the Greens pose the biggest threat to Labour? Here’s what the numbers say

Sir Keir Starmer faces calls to resign or drastically shake up his government after Labor suffered heavy defeats in Thursday’s local council, Scottish and Welsh elections.

Some counts are still being released, but Labor has lost control of at least 35 councils across England; 1,442 party councilors lost their seats, including in historically safe strongholds.

Sir Keir’s party also lost in Wales after 27 years in power; First Minister Eluned Morgan was unseated, while the SNP once again claimed victory in Scotland.

The party’s grip on the capital was also seriously weakened; The Labor Party lost control of almost half of the 21 districts it previously held in the capital.

The results have intensified debate within Labor over which direction the party should take if it is to survive the general election.

Labor lost votes to both the Greens on the left and Reform UK on the right; some question which poses the greatest threat to the party.

Some in the Labor Party have called for Reform to stop drifting so far to the right that it has failed to appeal to voters in the UK, and for more left-wing supporters to turn to the Greens. Others believe the party is not doing enough to appease voters in traditional heartlands who currently support Nigel Farage’s party.

Here’s what the election results tell us about whether Labour’s biggest threat is the Green Party or Reform England:

England

After 131 of 136 English councils announced results, Labor lost a net 34 mandates and 1,113 seats, while Reform gained 14 councils and 1,318 seats.

The Green Party took control of four councils and gained at least 331 councillors.

In terms of the number of councils taken directly from Labour, Reform posed the biggest threat after taking control of six councils.

These included areas in traditional Labor strongholds such as Barnsley and St Helens. The party also achieved its first victory in London by gaining control of Havering, which had previously been largely out of control.

Meanwhile, the Greens have made historic gains in London, creating a major breach in Labour’s traditional grip on the city.

Zoe Garbett became the first directly elected Green mayor in the UK in Hackney, ending decades of Labor rule. Hours later the party won another mayoralty in Lambeth.

Labor lost three councils to the Greens, including Hackney, Waltham Forest and Norwich. They also swept away the council of Hastings, which had not previously been under general control.

As well as councils changing hands directly, Labor lost its majority in more than 20 authorities, including Lambeth, where the Greens weakened their once-strong council grip.

In other places, such as Leeds, Oxford, Swindon and Birmingham, councils have moved from Labour’s lack of overall control, with Reform UK councilors forming the largest party.

Wales

The biggest threat to Labor in Wales was Plaid Cymru, which won the most seats in the Senedd on Thursday.

The results also show that Reform UK could pose a major threat to Labor in the upcoming general election in Wales, with the party likely to win 34 seats.

Meanwhile, the Labor Party suffered a historic defeat in Wales, losing power for the first time since the devolution period began in 1999.

The party lost 35 seats at the election, including the seat of Welsh Labor leader Eluned Morgan.

Scotland

While the results were slightly less bruising in Scotland, it was still a disappointing loss for Labor, which had hoped to oust the SNP from power after more than a decade.

Both parties lost seats at Holyrood, with Labor losing four seats and the SNP losing six.

Meanwhile, Reform UK and the Green Party have made some gains; Nigel Farage’s candidates won 17 seats, while the Greens won six.

What might this mean at the national level?

The outcome of this election has led Labor to look at its chances in the next general election.

According to Sky News, the projected number of seats in the House of Commons based on this week’s votes will see Labor win just 110 seats; This is a huge loss compared to the 411 seats won in 2024.

Meanwhile, Reform UK will win 284 seats, leaving them 42 seats short of a majority but still making them the largest party in parliament.

The Greens are expected to win 13 seats, nine more than they currently hold.