Is Trump’s ‘shock and awe’ foreign policy in Gaza sustainable?

US President Donald Trump will visit Israel and Egypt this week to oversee the initial implementation of the Gaza peace agreement, which many hope will permanently end the two-year war in Gaza.

If peace is achieved, the Gaza agreement will be Trump’s greatest foreign policy achievement. Abraham Accords During his first term, he normalized relations between Israel and many Arab countries.

Given the speed with which the Trump administration has helped negotiate a ceasefire, it’s an opportune moment to consider Trump’s frenzied foreign policy at the start of his second term.

“Trump Doctrine“- The unconventional, high-energy, fast-moving approach that the United States is currently taking to world affairs has achieved some significant successes, especially in Gaza. But can these breakthroughs be sustainable and can its foreign policy approach be effective in the face of larger geostrategic challenges?

A simpler decision-making structure

One reason the Trump administration’s approach differs from previous administrations (including Trump 1.0) is its leaner organization with the capacity to take action more quickly.

Trump has revamped the national security decision-making structure in surprising ways. Secretary of State Marco Rubio now also serves as national security advisor. Rubio also reduced the staff of the National Security Council from about 350 to about 150still bigger Many of Trump’s predecessors Before Barack Obama.

There were some missteps. Trump’s first national security adviser, Michael Waltz, attempted to address the need for quick decisions by: Group chats in the Signal app For a small group of agency heads and senior advisers who advise Trump. This rightly raised concerns about the security of confidential information, especially after Waltz accidentally added a journalist to the chat group. was later dismissed.

Now with a much smaller staff, Rubio is implementing a more sustainable method for the president to communicate with his top advisers, mostly through Rubio himself and Trump’s powerful chief of staff, Susie Wiles.

Rubio also led a top-down revamp of bureaucratic foreign policy structures. Dozens of offices were closed and hundreds of career professionals were laid off. A large number of political appointments, including ambassadors, have not yet been fulfilled.

Many offices are now run by career foreign and civil service officers, not Senate-confirmed assistant secretaries.”senior office officialsThis maintains professionalism while keeping the number of politically appointed policymakers, who are mostly in Rubio’s direct orbit, quite small.”practitioners” in key positions to carry out policy.

Trust special envoys

Trump is also using his longtime friend and all-purpose envoy Steve Witkoff in top-level talks to pave the way for his own deal-making. Witkoff became Trump’s most trusted voice on Ukraine, Gaza and several other foreign policy negotiations without Senate confirmation.

Massad BoulosAnother unapproved Trump envoy, Trump has been conducting second-tier talks mostly in Africa but also in parts of the Middle East.

Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, also played an important role in the last Gaza agreement. it raised conflict of interest questions. But Trump’s emphasis on deal-oriented business people in diplomatic roles is intentional.

The approach seems likely to be quite welcomed in some quarters, especially in the Middle East, where traditional diplomacy is laden with many historical baggages.

‘Shock and awe’ approach.

First of all, of course, Trump’s style and flamboyance come first.

His most controversial statements (for example, demanding that the United States claim Greenland) may seem absurd and offensive at first. But there are real national security concerns about China’s role in the Arctic and the possibility that an independent Greenland could act as a wedge in a critical region. From this perspective, it is a completely rational proposition for the United States to establish some control over Greenland’s foreign policy.

What is unique about Trump is the speed, breadth and intensity of his personal diplomacy.

Trump’s relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is an example of this. While Trump publicly embraces Netanyahu and greenlights all Israeli military actions, privately he is ready to say no to the Israeli leader. For example, Trump intervened. Preventing Israel from annexing the West Bank Just before the Gaza breakthrough.

In addition, Trump’s personal charm offensive against Arab leaders in the region – his first big trip abroad After Pope Francis’ remains were flown to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates formed a coalition to pressure Hamas to vote yes to the agreement.

This is a “shock and awe” diplomatic approach: everything, everywhere, all at the same time. Previous agreements and norms (including those set by Trump himself) are now being disparaged or cast aside in favor of action.

Is there a longer term vision?

Of course, there are downsides to the Trump approach. Especially in the Middle East, the past cannot be ignored. And many previous agreements and norms were there for a reason; they worked and helped stabilize chaotic situations.

It is not yet known whether Trump’s approach will lead to a long-term solution in Gaza. Many critics noted that: uncertainty The 20-point peace plan could collapse at any moment.

It is not unusual for a second-term American president like Trump to focus on foreign policy, in which Congress has a fairly limited role and the president has wide latitude. But American presidents often focus on achieving something big. Consider Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran or George W. Bush’s troop deployments to Iraq.

Today, in addition to the Gaza agreement, Trump is pursuing separate diplomatic agreements with America’s four biggest enemies: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

The logic of this is to directly emphasize the alliance of bad actors. Does Chinese leader Xi Jinping trust Russian President Vladimir Putin enough to resist Trump’s entreaties (or vice versa)? How worried are Russia and China about North Korean leader Kim Jong Un making a deal with Washington?

The real test of the Trump Doctrine will not be the success of the Gaza agreement, but whether the West can leverage it to push its enemies (primarily China and Russia) further apart and into weaker strategic positions.

This article was first published at: Speech.