India is set to host Russia’s Putin, deepening ties, unfazed by U.S. tariffs
Russian President Vladimir Putin awards the Order of St. Andrew the First-Called Apostle to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on July 9, 2024.
Evgenia Novozhenina | Reuters
As India reels under punitive US tariffs over purchases of Russian oil, New Delhi is preparing to host President Vladmir Putin for a two-day visit, signaling its determination to deepen ties with Moscow.
Ian Bremmer, founder and chairman of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said the visit showed that India “wants to maintain relations with Russia, especially at a time when it views the United States as untrustworthy and China as an enemy.”
Putin will be in India on December 4-5 for the 23rd India-Russia annual summit, which experts say will expand the two countries’ strategic and commercial ties.
Although this visit was planned before U.S.-India relations soured, it shows that “New Delhi is not beholden to the whims of the Trump administration and maintains an independent foreign policy,” said Chietigj Bajpaee, senior research fellow for South Asia at Chatham House’s Asia-Pacific Program.
The Kremlin said last week that Putin’s visit was of “great importance” as Russian President and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi were set to discuss “the scope of Russia-India’s special and privileged strategic partnership in politics, trade and economy”, among other issues.
The two leaders are expected to issue a joint statement and may also sign “a wide range of bilateral inter-ministerial and business agreements”, it said.
Aleksei Zakharov, visiting fellow of Indian think tank Observer Research Foundation, said the main focus of the summit will be trade expansion and this could help India achieve a more balanced bilateral trade with Russia.
trade inequality
In the fiscal year ending March 2025, trade between India and Russia stood at $68.72 billion, a figure that was heavily skewed in Russia’s favour. data government-backed Brand Equity Foundation of India. India’s exports to Russia amounted to only 4.88 billion dollars, while its imports amounted to 63.84 billion dollars. Countries aim for this expand Bilateral trade to reach $100 billion by 2030.
Zakharov said India could accelerate shipments of machinery, chemicals, food and pharmaceutical products to Russia, while Moscow is promoting its technological solutions for civilian nuclear energy, including building small modular reactors in India.
“New Delhi and Moscow are trying to offset India’s declining purchases of Russian oil by diversifying their trade relations into other areas, including defense and civil nuclear cooperation,” said Bajpaee of Chatham House.
It is stated that the two leaders will discuss India’s purchase of Russia’s new generation Su-57 warplanes and the advanced S-500 missile defense shield. report by Bloomberg.
But some experts have expressed doubts about Russia’s ability to comply with the defense agreement.
“India and Russia will talk about weapons, but Russia can barely deliver the S-400 currently ordered due to chip shortages,” Eurasia Group’s Bremmer said and added: “India is not interested in Su-57 fighter jets.”
According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, India’s largest arms supplier between 2020 and 2024 is Russia with a 36 percent share, followed by France with 33 percent and Israel with 13 percent.
However, Russia’s share fell from 55% in 2015-19 to 72% in 2010-14. SIPRI, in its report in March this year, stated that India has shifted its arms supplies to suppliers such as France, Israel and the USA.
balancing act
India is under pressure from the United States to reduce its imports of Russian oil, while Washington claims this means Moscow can withstand Western economic sanctions pressure and continue its war against Ukraine.
New Delhi imposes a 25% surcharge on its exports to the US, on top of a 25% tariff, as a “penalty” for Russian energy purchases. The 50 percent US tariff on Indian goods, among the highest in any country, came into effect on August 27.
The US accused India of importing Russian oil and selling it on the open market for a “significant profit”. activating Moscow to finance its aggression. New Delhi said its oil imports were based on “the goal of ensuring energy security for India’s 1.4 billion people.”
New Delhi has increased energy purchases from Washington in a bid to improve ties with the US, with Indian state oil companies signing a 1-year deal to import around 2.2 million tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas from the US annually.
After the USA imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, the country is also reducing its oil purchases from Russia.
However, Sumit Ritolia, chief research analyst at energy intelligence firm Kpler, told CNBC that Russian oil exports to India will fall in the short term, but the recovery will be enhanced through new intermediary companies that can bypass sanctions.
Arpit Chaturvedi, consultant on Teneo’s geopolitical risk advisory team, said no US-India trade deal could mean a loss of $20 billion in trade surplus revenue for India, while the cost advantage of Russian discounted oil is about $8 billion. “From a purely monetary perspective, trade with the US is much more important for India,” he added.
Putin’s visit to India comes at a time when the United States is trying to broker a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
On Tuesday, Putin, US envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner met for five hours in Moscow to discuss ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. According to the Kremlin meeting It was constructive but there was no improvement.
Bajpaee said India would hope for an eventual peace agreement as it would help reduce scrutiny on India-Russia relations.
