The Iranian Revolution’s 2026 anniversary could well be its last

The Islamic Republic could stage a march displaying banners and military weapons, giving the appearance of unity. However, when legitimacy is imposed on the people, it is no longer legitimate.

February 11 marks the Islamic Republic’s annual demonstration of legitimacy. This is a day when the state fills the streets of Iran with flags, slogans and choreographed crowds to commemorate the fall of the Shah, the rise of Ruhollah Khomeini and the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

This year, when everything is at stake for the future of the Republic, the regime’s messages clearly reveal how much it needs performance.

State compliant Tasnim News Agency He reported that “comprehensive arrangements” have been made for mass rallies that will start simultaneously at 09.30 across the country. More than 7,700 journalists are planned to cover the events, including 200 foreign reporters stationed along the march routes, he said. More than 2,000 “service and culture stands” will be located on the streets of Tehran.

Military and aviation organizations, My Tasnim He said they would unveil Iran’s “latest equipment and achievements” along the routes to showcase its “scientific might and military expertise with the public.”

The presence of “fan” crowds and cheering is meant to symbolize the power and legitimacy of the Islamic Republic, but this is power and legitimacy with excellent production values.

In a separate report published Monday eveningIran InternationalA second form of mobilization was shared. According to sources close to the families of some of those detained during the ongoing anti-regime protests, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intelligence officers and the Ministry of Intelligence pressured the families of those arrested during the nationwide protests to attend the February 11 rally. Their existence must be “verifiable,” according to the report. Families were told to take photos and videos of the march and send them to security units. Threats and psychological pressure are also added to these demands.

A country’s anniversaries should commemorate a founding legend. When a government starts making conditions for a person’s attendance at a rally, it shows how much the people hate the regime.

For a ruling authority that has watched millions of its citizens take to the streets to demand its own death over the past two months, it is no surprise that the regime has gone to such lengths to make a positive impact.

In a televised message on Monday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei described the date as “the day when the strength and dignity of the Iranian nation is revealed every year” and said the rallies were “unprecedented in the world.” He framed participation as a kind of national weapon. He said Iranians took to the streets and forced those who “covet” the Islamic Republic to retreat.

But Iran’s identity has always been greater than any one regime or any governing body, and it is precisely this longevity that makes the regime’s fraught choreography so impressive. There is continuity of civilization in Iran; an instinct for nationhood that predates the modern state by centuries. For more than 2,000 years, nationhood has been a cherished concept for many Iranians, and many view their history as a story rooted in their own land. They experience their nation not through a specific ideology, but through the idea of ​​Iran.

In contrast, the worldview of Khamenei, and by extension the Islamic Republic, has often prioritized the regime’s ideological project and regional stance over the daily livelihood and well-being of Iranian citizens. Its people have gone through economic upheavals, environmental disasters, and other challenges; the country’s wealth has been spent financing regional terrorist proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

The Islamic Regime is trying to control the narrative

In his message to the public, Khamenei said, “We hope that, with God’s permission, this 22nd Bahman according to the Iranian calendar will further increase the glory of the Iranian nation, like every 22nd Bahman in the past years.” he said.

However, Khamenei has nothing but contempt for the Iranian people he has ruled for 36 years.

Although he served as the country’s president and then its religious leader, he never served the people. He cares more about his Islamic ummah than the Iranian people.

Compare this with former shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who said in his 1976 Nowruz (Persian New Year) speech: “We, the Pahlavi dynasty, have no love except for Iran, and we have no zeal other than the dignity of Iranians; we recognize no other duty than to serve our state and our nation.”

That’s why the anniversary of the revolution is so loaded.

This is the regime’s attempt to control the narrative at a time when it has been clear for months to Iranian observers that the Islamic Republic no longer represents the people. The public wants this to go away.

The Islamic Republic can still march. He can still fill the streets with banners and display military weapons. It can still produce the appearance of unity.

But this year with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with US President Donald Trump As we debate what action could be taken against Iran on February 11, the state’s ostentatious performance seems hollow.

The legitimacy imposed on the people is no longer legitimate.

Although February 11 will again be presented as a national celebration, this may be the last time it is celebrated as a national holiday in the Islamic Republic.