The Rise and Fall of Ukraine’s Drone Warfare Mastermind

Ukraine’s young defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, himself gained widespread popularity during his diligent efforts to popularize drone warfare.

And political analysts and opposition politicians said this week it may have helped his downfall because President Volodymyr Zelenskiy sided with him in a massive conflict with the country’s top military commander.

Mr. Zelensky’s dismissal of Mr. Fedorov, 35, sidelined a potential political rival in the spotlight. The timing of his removal is odd, just as drone warfare helped tip the scales in Ukraine’s favor. The move also shows Mr. Zelensky’s concerns about Mr. Fedorov’s vision that drones are all but the country’s war-fighting future.

Mr. Fedorov’s firing took place after he blocked the purchase of artillery ammunition in favor of drones. The commander of the Ukrainian army, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, had insisted that the ammunition was still needed in the brutal trench fighting in the country’s east.

“The popularity of drones is the issue that led to Mr. Fedorov’s dismissal,” said Mykola Davydiuk, a lawmaker from the opposition Holos party.

Mr. Davydiuk said Mr. Fedorov had become “a problem and a danger” to Mr. Zelensky, advocating a complete technological overhaul of the Ukrainian military; This was hugely popular, but was opposed by the top general who actually fought in the war.

From a political perspective, the firing fits a pattern in which Mr. Zelensky has sidelined potential rivals during the war, although none, including Mr. Fedorov, have publicly expressed political ambitions.
Mr. Davydiuk said political advisers convinced Mr. Zelensky that Mr. Fedorov had attracted public attention with his drone program.

Mr. Zelensky fired Mr. Fedorov, but the move confused and angered many Ukrainians; Thousands took to the streets to demand his reinstatement. The move also threatens to disrupt the war effort, including the ties Mr. Fedorov has forged between the military and the drone industry, analysts said.

Speaking to reporters in an underground parking lot in the capital Kiev on Thursday, Mr. Fedorov said General Syrskyi had presented Mr. Zelensky with an ultimatum. This has brought to a head the debate in Ukraine, a leading country in drone wars, about whether relying on drones has gone too far.

Mr. Fedorov has been a leading proponent of deploying small robotic systems that could replace infantry, artillery and armored vehicles in some roles, hurting Ukraine’s chances against Russia’s larger military. His ministry’s increased drone purchases during his six-month tenure coincided with stabilizing the front and a campaign that destroyed nearly a quarter of Russia’s oil refining capacity.

But although exploding drones now account for about four-fifths of all casualties on both sides, they fly poorly in foggy or windy weather, where artillery remains effective. Critics within the military dismissed Mr. Fedorov’s ideas about robot warfare as delusional. Soldiers still must hide in muddy, rodent-infested bunkers to fend off Russia’s advance.

In his explanation of the disagreement over strategy, Mr. Fedorov also noted vested interests in the arms industry. He said his revision of procurement to favor drones threatened commercial interests.

“As a state, we were supposedly behaving very badly because we were disrupting the business strategy of a company,” Mr. Fedorov said.

A major dispute in the months before Mr. Fedorov’s dismissal was over the purchase of conventional military hardware, according to Mr. Fedorov, an arms industry executive, and Ukrainian media reports. The executive spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

Speaking on Thursday, Mr. Fedorov acknowledged that he had ruffled feathers by canceling or opening bids for the purchase of 155-millimeter NATO-caliber artillery shells, the most common ammunition, while halting all purchases of short-range versions of those munitions.

He said he saved $100 million this way. He also insisted that Ukraine would still purchase long-range shells. But Mr. Fedorov’s aides have written to military contractors in recent months to say the defense ministry will no longer purchase artillery ammunition of any kind, relying instead on stockpiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, according to the defense industry executive.

This caused a disagreement because the priorities for arms purchases in Ukraine are determined by the army general staff, led by General Syrskyi, not the defense ministry.

General Syrskyi is a tough-talking commander known within the military as “The Butcher” for his willingness to inflict casualties.

While Mr. Zelensky sided with the general in his conflict with Mr. Fedorov, the president told members of his political party at a meeting this week that it was a difficult decision, Ukrainska Pravda, one of Ukraine’s leading newspapers, reported.

According to the newspaper, Mr. Zelensky told party members that he actually wanted to fire both men and make a fresh start, but that he could not make these moves all at once.

An aide to Mr. Zelensky said on Friday that the president was in talks with Mr. Fedorov about a new role in the government. Mr. Fedorov said the other day that he had turned down job offers from Silicon Valley companies after he was fired.

General Syrskyi, 60, is not thought to have post-war political ambitions. But Mr. Zelensky has moved against other military leaders seen as posing a political challenge.

Early in the war, he fired the army’s commander, General Valeriy Zaluzhny, whose popularity at times exceeded that of the president and who was widely seen as a potential rival in postwar elections. Mr. Zelensky appointed him as ambassador to the UK.

Before this move, commentators had warned that there would be disruptions in the army if General Zaluzhny was fired, but the transfer of leadership to General Syrskyi went smoothly.

In January, Mr. Zelensky brought Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, who runs Ukraine’s military intelligence service, into his office as chief of staff. Political analysts saw this change as partly aimed at keeping the general close together politically, complicating his potential presidential bid after the war.

With Mr. Fedorov now sidelined, supporters of his digitally minded approach to the war bemoaned his dismissal in street protests in Kiev and other cities. “Go back to Fedorov!” many cardboard signs read.

One sign clearly stated that the protests could escalate. “We have a lot of cardboard,” he said.

Natalya Novosolova contributed to the reporting.