Analysis-Poland and Ukraine’s difficult history creates political minefield for Tusk

Written by: Marek Strzelecki and Barbara Erling

WARSAW, June 25 (Reuters) – As policymakers discuss Ukraine’s reconstruction in Poland on Thursday, the government in Warsaw is trying to defuse tensions over history that could hamper cooperation as Kiev eyes a path to peace and European Union membership.

President Karol Nawrocki’s decision to strip Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Poland’s top honor over a dispute over naming an army unit after rebels who massacred Poles in World War II has sparked the biggest diplomatic crisis between the neighbors since Russia’s invasion in 2022.

Zelenskiy chose not to attend the Ukrainian Reconstruction Conference held in the Baltic port city of Gdansk on Thursday as he sought to insulate the meeting from the fighting.

Nawrocki’s move also represented a challenge to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European coalition government, which will have to balance its more conciliatory approach towards Kiev with growing negativity towards Ukraine among voters.

“It’s clear to see that Nawrocki really has it in mind to make life difficult for the government at all costs, even at the expense of Poland’s position, and he’s certainly succeeding,” a source close to the government said.

Nawrocki rejected any suggestion that domestic politics played a role in the decision to strip Poland’s highest honor, the Order of the White Eagle, from President Zelenskiy.

BAD RELATIONSHIPS

While Poles remain strong supporters of Kiev’s war effort, public sentiment towards Ukraine has become increasingly negative in recent years due to frustration with refugees, disputes over grain imports, and the legacy of World War II (Two murders).

According to a SW Research poll conducted for the Rzeczpospolita newspaper, 51.9% of Poles said Zelenskiy’s decision to name an army unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) had harmed their attitude towards Ukraine.

Some Ukrainians see the UPA as heroes of their resistance against the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany and symbols of Kiev’s struggle for independence from Moscow.

But the UPA was also involved in the Volhynia massacres, which took place from 1943 to 1945, in which Poland says around 100,000 Poles were killed by Ukrainian nationalists. Thousands of Ukrainians also died in reprisal killings.

Tusk and Zelenskiy met in Brussels the day before Nawrocki was scheduled to receive the Order of the White Eagle from the Ukrainian president. Two sources close to the Polish government said they were discussing how to ease tensions.

“The next thing was Nawrocki escalated tensions… and we have a huge problem,” the source said.

Nawrocki first raised the issue in May, and his allies accuse the Ukrainian president of deliberately attacking Poland to distract from corruption scandals near the country, saying he gave Zelenskiy enough time to reverse his decision.

“The world is increasingly talking about how much money was stolen by Ukrainians associated with Zelenskiy’s team, which makes it even more obvious that he is trying to divert attention by provoking historical disputes and insulting the Poles,” Nawrocki’s foreign policy adviser Marcin Przydacz said on Monday. he said.

Zelenskiy, for his part, said Nawrocki was trying to score political points ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections, when his allies from the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party hope to return to government.

A SEAT AT THE TABLE

Despite the tensions, most Poles view Ukraine’s security as vital to them and believe Poland should be involved in any negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.

“Every reasonable and common-sense person knows that the conflict between Poland and Ukraine is the greatest gift for the Russian President,” Tusk said on Wednesday. he said.

But Tusk’s failure to attend this month’s meeting in London, known as E3, attended by Zelenskiy and the leaders of Britain, Germany and France, raised concerns in Poland that the meeting was being sidelined as Western European powers sought to steer Kiev into talks with Moscow in the near future.

Tusk joined E3 leaders in Berlin on Wednesday at an expanded E5 format that also included the Italian prime minister.

At that meeting he said: “Poland has never had and will not have any doubts; at this dramatic moment the future of Europe, the Western world and Ukraine will depend on how well we preserve the European and transatlantic unity.”

Tusk added that countries on NATO’s eastern flank should be represented in all major formats.

Diplomats say an escalation of the current dispute could make it difficult for Warsaw to play a key role in negotiations.

“If Poland wants to be involved in discussions on Ukraine, including in formats such as E3, it is no surprise that they are not invited,” a European diplomat said.

Government sources say the administration cannot risk joining the competition over who can appear tougher on Ukraine, which has radicalized sentiments among Poles.

“The next step will be violence in the streets, so you can’t afford that,” said a source close to the government.

(Reporting by Marek Strzelecki and Barbara Erling, additional reporting by Pawel Florkiewicz, Anna Koper by Alan Charlish, editing by Gareth Jones)