Two years on, will Israel and Hamas seize the chance to end the war?

After two years of war, there is a possibility of an agreement that will end the massacre and destruction in Gaza and return the Israeli hostages to their families alive and dead.

This is an opportunity, but it is not certain that this will be evaluated by Hamas and Israel.

It is a terrible coincidence that the talks took place two years after Hamas still creates a serious trauma over the Israelites.

In the October 7 attacks, approximately 1,200 people, mostly Israeli civilians, were killed and 251 people were hostage. The Israelis predicted that 20 hostages are still alive, while the funerals of 28 people want to be returned.

Israel’s destructive military intervention destroyed most of Gaza and killed more than 66,000 Palestinians, most civilians and more than 18,000 children.

The figures come from the Ministry of Health, which is one of the ruins of Hamas administration. Statistics are generally considered reliable. A study of London -based medical magazine The Lancet claimed that they were an incomplete estimation.

Both Israelis and Palestinians want the war to end. The Israelis are tired of the war, and the surveys show that the majority wants a deal that will return hostages and end the war. Hundreds of thousands of reserve soldiers in the Armed Forces (IDF) want to go back to their lives after being active in uniform for months.

More than two million Palestinians in Gaza are in a humanitarian disaster between the Israeli Armed Forces, between the fire force and hunger and in some regions, Israel’s restriction on the aid entering the lane.

The Hamas version, which can attack Israel with a destructive force for two years, has already been fragmented as a consistent military organization. Among the ruins, a city that rebelled against the IDF has become a guerrilla force.

Although Hamas agrees to leave power to Palestinian technocrats, he wants to find a way to survive. He acknowledges that he will have to surrender or dismantle the rest of his heavy weapons, but he wants to revenge on the Palestinians who want to revenge on the disaster of the ruthless administration and Hamas attacks that have lasted for about twenty years.

He does not say this clearly, but an organization, which still has followers and aims to destroy Israel, will also want to emerge with enough left to re -capacity to re -capacity, which is also the abbreviation of the Islamic Resistance Movement.

Israel wants to dictate the conditions for Hamas surrender. However, the fact that Hamas has a serious chance of negotiation paves the way for more possibilities than it appeared only a month ago. This was when Israel tried to kill Hamas leadership and failed in a series of attacks on a building in Doha, where Donald Trump discussed peace suggestions. The main targets, the senior leader Halil al-Hayya, lead the Hamas delegation during the meetings in Sham al-Sheikh in the Red Sea. Although the leaders escaped by saving their lives, Al-Hayya’s son was among those who died.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has a different struggle for survival in his mind. He wants to maintain his power, to continue to postpone the corruption case, to win the elections next year, and to not go down in history as the leader responsible for the security mistakes that have led to the most deadly day for the Jews since the Nazi genocide.

To achieve this, he needs a reliable way to declare the “full victory” that he has repeatedly used. This described this as the return of hostages, the destruction of Hamas and the purification of Gaza from the military. If he cannot do this, it would not be enough for him to point to the real damage he has caused to his enemies in Lebanon and Iran in the last two years.

Hamas and Israeli negotiators will not meet face -to -face. Egyptian and Qatari officials will be the vehicle and the Americans who will be there will also have a major, perhaps decisive effect.

Donald Trump’s 20 -item Gaza Peace Plan is the basis of negotiations. Despite the persistent shares of social media about permanent peace, it will not be to end the long -standing conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians on the control of the lands between the Jordanian River and the Mediterranean. It does not mention the future of the other part of the West Bank and Britain and others as the Palestinian state.

The risks are high in Sharm al-Sheikh. There is a chance to reach a ceasefire between the Arabs and the Jews that have been ongoing for more than a century.

The first challenge is to solve the conditions for the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for the Palestinians who have been sentenced to life imprisonment in Israeli prisons and Ghazals who have been detained since the beginning of the war. This is not a simple task.

President Trump wants quick results. In the Middle East, he wants to revive the ambition of mediating a major bargaining between Israel and Saudi Arabia in the center. Israel cannot happen while killing a large number of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, imposing restrictions that cause great suffering to humanitarian aid, and keeping Hamas hostage hostage. In a series of press release, the Saudis also made clear that this could not happen without an open and irreversible way to an independent Palestinian state.

Trump forced Netanyahu to sign a document with a vague and ambiguous reference on the possibility of Palestine’s independence. Later, Netanyahu reiterated his promise that the Palestinians would never have a state and he chose to ignore it. In the Trump document, there is a lot of things that Israel wants in terms of Hamas’s power and Gaza’s future management.

But Netanyahu is used to doing what he wants at the Oval Office. Instead, Trump forced him to read an official apology from the prime minister because of an air strike that could not eliminate Hamas leadership. In order for Trump to move forward to the Middle East, Qatar must be with him.

One of the questions is why Hamas is ready to deliver hostages without a certain calendar for Israel to leave Gaza and finish the war. One possibility is that the Qatar people convinced them that if Trump gives him the chance to declare victory in Israel by sending back all the hostages in Israel, it will make it happen.

Nevertheless, Trump still uses a language that Netanyahu wants to hear the Israelis; For example, if they refuse the agreement, he threatens to Hamas and promises “full support” for Israel to continue to destroy Hamas.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said it would take only a few days to understand whether Hamas is serious. It will take longer to reveal the nuts and bolts required to support a complex agreement. The only thing they have ever had is Trump’s frame.

Two years after the long and unresolved conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians turned into a Gaza war, it is a great difficulty to end the murders and to guarantee the close future for the Palestinians and the Israelis. This will require long -term interaction with a resourceful diplomacy and very few details in Trump’s 20 -item plan. Trying to find a definite language that will fill the gaps will create many potential obstacles.

No one has a superior view of Trump about his ability to make an agreement. In foreign policy, the delivery so far did not coincide with his pride. It did not conclude many wars; The definitive number that he claims to how many of them has changed changes depending on how he describes it. The most well-known was that he did not finish the Russian-Ukraine war in a single day after Trump took office. However, a skill that Trump has after a lifetime of real estate agent is an innate instinct about how to print to obtain what he wants.

Indirect negotiations are held in Egypt because Donald Trump was able to put pressure on both sides. If they refused to participate in the plan, it was the easy part to threaten Hamas of extinction. Since the group won the Palestinian elections in 2006 and the following year, the US presidents have pioneered international pressure on Hamas since the Palestinian rivals from El Fatah.

The big difference between Donald Trump and President Clinton, Obama and Biden is that Benjamin Netanyahu responds harder and decisively to the attempts to manipulate him, and that his democratic premises will be willing or more hard than they can do.

Trump evaluated the answer to Hamas’s proposal “yes, but” as a solid yes for peace. It was enough for him to attack from the front. Axios News Service, Netanyahu’yu Hamas against the time when trying to convince Trump’s answer “why you are so negative” reported.

Israel is dependent on the US. The US became a full partner of the war. Without America’s help, Israel would not have attacked Gaza with such a ruthless and long -term force. Most of its weapons are also provided by the US, which also provides political and diplomatic protection, and veto a large number of decisions aiming to put pressure on Israel at the UN Security Council.

Joe Biden, who calls herself Irish Zionist, never used Israel’s trump card caused by its dependence on the United States. Donald Trump put his plans for America in the first place, using America’s secret power over Israel, subjugating Netanyahu to his own will to at least participate in talks. Time will show whether this pressure will continue. Trump changes his mind.

Both Hamas and Israeli delegations have strong critics who want to continue the war in their own countries. Hamas sources told the BBC that they are ready to fight until the end of the military commanders in Gaza and to take as many Israelis as possible. The coalition of Binyamin Netanyahu is based on the support of extreme nationalist extremists who think that they are close to their dreams of deporting Palestinians in Gaza and placing Jewish settlers in their places.

If the negotiations in Egypt fail, the end of both play will be possible.