Keir Starmer makes late pitch to voters turning to Greens and Reform | May 2026 elections
Labor is bracing for record losses in the UK’s local elections on Thursday, which could be decisive for Keir Starmer’s future as prime minister.
In a message to voters on Thursday, Starmer said Reform’s Nigel Farage and the Greens’ Zack Polanski were “unfit to meet this moment of great global instability” and that only Labor was putting the national interest first.
“When you put your vote in the ballot box today, you face a clear choice,” he said. “Progress and a better future for the community you call home, with a Labor council working with a Labor government. Against the anger and division offered by Reformation or the empty promises of the Greens.”
“In tough times, you always need politicians who will stand up for you and your family. Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski have shown time and time again that they are unfit to meet this moment of great global instability. Today I make a firm promise to you: Whatever the pressure, Labor will always support you and your family, and we will never stop doing what is in Britain’s national interest.”
Any outcome in which the party loses more than 1,500 council seats would be existential, MPs told the Guardian. But polling experts say much worse outcomes are possible; Stephen Fisher of Oxford University also predicts the party will lose more than 75 percent of its seats, or about 1,900.
Labor hopes to be able to point to early decisions in London, including traditionally Tory councils Westminster and Wandsworth, to build the narrative that the results were not as bad as predicted.
But this message is unlikely to stick, given that Reform has historically been expected to take Labor councils such as Barnsley and Sunderland, while the SNP looks set for a fifth victory in the Scottish parliamentary election, where Labor, once on course to seize power, is also likely to lose ground.
YouGov’s latest MRP model for the 2026 Holyrood election suggests the SNP will fall just short of the 65 seats needed for a majority in the 129-member Scottish parliament and will likely need a coalition with the Scottish Greens, who support independence. Labor is in second place with Reform and the Greens in most polls and is expected to lose five of its MSPs.
Labor will lose power to Plaid Cymru in Wales’ Senedd elections and record its worst ever result. There may be danger for Starmer if Eluned Morgan, the first minister of Wales, who could lose her seat, calls on Starmer to resign after the election, as Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar did in February.
MPs hoping to see a change of leadership believe regional mayors and council leaders, including Greater Manchester’s Andy Burnham and even London mayor Sadiq Khan, could join calls for a change of prime minister. The mayors’ allies said calls for immediate resignation were unlikely.
But Starmer’s position may be protected by left-wing MPs who want to see Burnham return to the House of Commons before mounting a challenge. Other potential leadership candidates (Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner) are said to be reluctant to be the first to challenge Starmer.
Starmer is said to be trying to determine the government’s next steps ahead of the king’s speech next Wednesday. In the coming days, MPs from across the party hope to shape the discourse of the coming months, with some expected to call for a more radical economic vision.
On Tuesday, centrist Labor Growth Group MPs will present a report titled An Honest Day – A New Economic Settlement for Britain, calling for stronger government action on living standards and housing, as well as recommendations on regulation, investment and state capacity.
Public polling for the report will show that the vast majority of Labor defectors to the Greens and Reform prefer a more radical approach to what they see as deeper structural problems than the government has identified.
“The message tomorrow will be the same message the country has been sending for years,” a source from the group said. “People continue to work harder for less, watching the basics of a decent life slip away and thinking, ‘this system wasn’t made for me.’” The scale of the consequences will show just how impatient voters are now.
“The next question is whether we’re finally ready to confront this and confront what’s going wrong. If we’re not, we’re going to lose this country to populists for a generation.”
