Are US-Iran headed back to war? What next after Trump’s new threats
However, Trump left the door open for negotiations, saying negotiations could continue; He signed the tactic of increasing pressure while maintaining diplomatic uncertainty. The result is a moment of profound uncertainty in which neither war nor diplomacy seems fully dominant. What happens next will depend not only on Washington and Tehran, but also on Gulf states, global energy markets, and the willingness of both sides to absorb more costs.
Trump’s shift to open pressure
The most important aspect of Trump’s latest statements is not just that he threatens additional attacks. What he is discussing now is the expansion of the scope of goals. Previous US military actions have largely revolved around Iran’s nuclear program, missile capabilities and military infrastructure. Trump is now openly talking about attacking power generation facilities, desalination plants and potentially seizing control of Kharg Island, which handles most of Iran’s oil exports. He also announced that the sanctions imposed on Iranian oil have been returned. Such statements suggest that the United States may be moving beyond deterrence towards a strategy of economic and infrastructural pressure.
This represents a huge climb. Attacks on civilian infrastructure would deepen economic pain in Iran and could push Tehran into a broader response. Iranian officials have already reacted harshly to the Kharg Island threat, portraying it as an attack on Iran’s sovereignty rather than a simple military strike.
The language in Trump’s latest statements is also striking. Trump described Iran’s leadership as a “cancer” that must be eliminated. Historically, such rhetoric has often preceded more aggressive military actions, even in cases where formal regime change has not been explicitly declared as policy.
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Iranian leaders warned Trump that any attack would result in a harsh response. Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian parliament, wrote about X: “Come, we are waiting for you – and we promise that not a single American soldier will return alive.”
From Iran’s perspective, taking a step back now carries serious risks. The death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, direct attacks with the United States, and intense internal mobilization around the conflict have created strong pressures on Iranian leaders to demonstrate defiance and resilience. At a time when national tensions are rising, any perception of capitulation could undermine the state’s legitimacy, especially as thousands march in the streets to celebrate Khamenei’s funeral.
Iran also appears determined to redefine the balance of power in the Strait of Hormuz. Muhanad Seloom of the Doha Institute of Graduate Studies told Al Jazeera that Tehran wants to implement a new status quo in which everything passing through the Strait of Hormuz will come under Iran’s control and pay taxes. This goal is at the heart of the current conflict. For years, Iran has seen control of Hormuz as one of its strongest strategic cards. The waterway carries a significant share of the world’s seaborne oil trade, making it one of the most sensitive chokepoints in the global economy.
If Iran believes that the United States is trying to permanently weaken its influence in Hormuz, it may conclude that more conflict is preferable to accepting a reduced regional role.
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Ormuz could be main battlefield
The most immediate danger may not be a full-scale invasion or a prolonged air war. There is a possibility of escalation of naval conflicts around Hormuz. Trump had previously said that he would reimpose the blockade, especially against Iran. Meanwhile, Iran continues to insist on a greater role in regulating maritime traffic in the strait.
This creates a dangerous environment where the possibility of miscalculation is high. Commercial shipping, energy infrastructure, maritime patrols and military aircraft all operate in close proximity. A single successful attack on a tanker, military ship or energy facility could trigger another cycle of retaliation. Maritime conflicts are particularly difficult to contain because attributions are often disputed and reactions tend to be rapid. The current situation contains many of the same components.
A limited war could turn into something bigger
Although neither side seems willing to engage in a long-term conventional war, conflicts are not always shaped by intentions. The United States maintains overwhelming conventional military superiority and is able to strike Iranian targets throughout the region. But Iran has a vast network of asymmetric capabilities that extends beyond its own territory. US military installations in the Gulf remain vulnerable to missile, drone and proxy attacks. Recent Iranian attacks on American targets in Bahrain and Kuwait suggest Tehran is willing to expand the geographic scope of retaliation. Iran’s military leadership also warned that countries supporting US military operations could become legitimate targets.
This creates a dilemma for Gulf governments. Most cooperate closely with the United States on security issues but have little interest in becoming battlegrounds themselves. If the attacks spread to multiple Gulf countries, the conflict could slowly escalate from the US-Iran conflict into a broader regional security crisis.
Gulf countries will take action
Despite the increase, diplomacy is far from dead. Gulf countries will desperately want to prevent the resumption of all-out hostilities. None of them want to see the ceasefire broken. There is likely to be a diplomatic push from across the Gulf to force Washington and Tehran back to talks.
This position reflects stark economic realities. Gulf economies depend on stable energy exports, investor confidence and safe shipping routes. After a brief ceasefire, a protracted conflict threatens all three. Qatar, Oman and other regional mediators have spent years improving communication channels between the rivals. They are likely to intensify these efforts in the coming days, especially if talks at a technical level are possible after the funeral ceremonies in Iran are completed.
Trump’s rhetoric versus action
One reason it’s hard to predict a sudden broader escalation is Trump himself. Most often, Trump’s comments are either sharp tactics during negotiations or outspokenness that does not necessarily translate into any significant action. Trump has often used maximalist rhetoric as a negotiating tool. In previous international crises, it has alternated between threats, insults and offers of dialogue, often within the same news cycle.
His final words follow a similar pattern. He declared the ceasefire effectively over, threatened new attacks, questioned the value of negotiations and reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil, while also halting the island of Kharg and threatening to attack energy and water infrastructure. However, he also left open the possibility that the talks could continue. This ambiguity may be a deliberate strategy. By maintaining uncertainty, Trump can maintain pressure on Iran while maintaining flexibility for future diplomacy.
Another economic shock is taking place
Financial markets are already reacting to the possibility of new conflict. Oil prices are up nearly 6%, stocks are down, and investors are increasingly pricing in geopolitical risk. As seen before, any sustained disruption in Hormuz would impact energy flows far beyond the Middle East. Kharg Island is particularly important because it serves as the main export terminal for Iranian crude oil. If military action affects the island or nearby shipping routes, markets will immediately begin assessing the risk of broader supply disruptions.
The consequences for major importers in Asia, including India, will be significant. Higher crude oil prices will increase import costs, complicate inflation management and put additional pressure on economic growth.
most likely outcome
The most plausible scenario in the near term seems to be neither peace nor all-out war, but rather a controlled escalation of tension. While the United States appears determined to maintain military pressure, Iran appears unwilling to bow to that pressure. Therefore, more strikes, maritime incidents and retaliatory actions are quite likely to occur. At the same time, both sides continue to signal that negotiations are continuing. This suggests that military actions may increasingly serve as leverage for future talks rather than preparation for a decisive war.
But the danger is that such crises develop their own momentum. Every strike creates pressure for a reaction, and every reaction creates pressure for another. The longer this cycle continues, the harder it becomes for diplomats to regain control.
Trump has revived the possibility of war without giving up on diplomacy completely for now. Whether the region moves toward either may depend on what happens over the next few days around the Strait of Hormuz, where the world’s most important energy chokepoint has once again become the center of a geopolitical storm.
