Are we heading for ‘super El Niño’ – and what could we expect? | Climate crisis

The phenomenon known as “El Niño” is likely to occur this summer and could be extraordinarily strong. The so-called “super El Niño” could strengthen extreme weather events and push global temperatures to record levels next year, experts say.

Meteorologists closely monitor evolving climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean, allowing for stronger predictions of what will happen next year.

A strong El Niño would make 2027 a candidate to break global temperature records and could create a range of devastating effects, from extremely heavy rainstorms to drought, depending on the region of the world.

While it’s not “a slam dunk,” the ingredients for El Niño are there, climate scientist and Climate Center media director Tom Di Liberto said at a briefing on Thursday. Predictions He added that spring cannot account for unexpected changes that may occur over the summer, but “the risk is high enough to be concerned.”

Here’s what you need to know:

What is El Niño?

The ocean and atmosphere are inextricably linked. That’s why forecasters are looking closely at ocean temperatures and conditions to help predict future weather around the world.

El Niño is characterized by warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This is one of three situations observed by scientists; In contrast, La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures are below average, and neutral conditions are defined when there is no El Niño or La Niña and surface temperatures are close to average.

Together, these three situations form the “El Niño-southern oscillation” (Enso), which tends to develop during the spring months in the northern hemisphere and changes every three to seven years, according to the U.S. National Weather Service. Warming and cooling of the sea surface during El Niño and La Niña can vary between 1°C and 3°C, and depending on which direction they go, they can have huge effects on precipitation, drought, temperature and climate disasters in different regions.

During Niño years, winds pushing warm waters westward soften or change direction, allowing the surface waters in that part of the Pacific to warm. These conditions, characterized by temperatures at least 0.5 degrees above the norm, greatly affect the weather and often push global temperatures to new heights.

Climate scientists are quick to point out that each event is unique and that there are significant differences in intensity and consequences between events. But Enso’s forecasts can help people around the world prepare for changes in extreme weather, an important tool in a warming world.

Conditions are currently shifting from a La Niña to a neutral pattern, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center’s latest outlook released April 6, but models show a 62% chance El Niño will appear this summer and linger until at least the end of the year.

How will El Niño affect weather events?

While there are many factors that create weather, El Nino can create a huge atmospheric disruption. It alters jet streams and alters rainfall patterns, fueling more intense storms in some parts of the world and drying out others. It also has the power to push rising temperatures even higher, at least for a short time.

A super El Niño occurred in 2015 Severe drought in Ethiopia and water shortages in Puerto Rico set records after the start of a severe hurricane season in the central North Pacific, according to an analysis by U.S. federal scientists.

The cycle tends to create drought and heat in Australia, around southern and central Africa, India, and parts of South America, including the Amazon rainforest. Meanwhile, heavy rains could hit the southern US, parts of the Middle East and south-central Asia.

The flooding could be a welcome relief for thirsty states in the US, with hopes that water shortages caused by this year’s heavy snowpack could be offset by a strong summer monsoon and a wetter winter next year. But as Di Liberto noted, these dry conditions are largely due to heat, making these regions less likely to recover from rising temperatures.

“When we talk about drought, it’s important to note that most of it is caused by temperature, not precipitation,” he said.

Experts also said that, most devastatingly, dry basins may not recover from a rainy season. This is especially true in the US Southwest, where some reserves are at all-time lows.

senior assistant scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder Cooperative Research Institute. “Just because we’re expecting a large-scale change in the climate pattern doesn’t mean we’ll see droughts disappear completely,” Joel Lisonbee said. “It has to be extremely wet,” he added. “This also means flooding and the destruction and potential loss of life that comes with it.”

Why are scientists talking about a ‘super El Niño’?

“Super” El Niño just means stronger. These are rare events typically defined by an increase in sea surface temperatures of at least 2°C. This has only occurred a few times since 1950 and temperatures rose above 2.5 degrees only once.

The higher they go, the more likely it is that the effects of El Niño will overwhelm. Scientists at NOAA have put the odds of this happening in the autumn or winter at one in four, with the caveat that spring forecasts are sometimes confused. Transitions in conditions that occur in the spring can make predicting results somewhat difficult. However, there are already basic indicators that a strong or super El Niño may occur.

D., professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the State University of New York at Albany. Paul Roundy, wrote There was “real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years” this week. University of Miami scientist Dr. Andy Hazelton wrote: “All models and observations point in the same direction: a very strong El Niño this year, which will have significant impacts on the global climate.”

How likely is this to happen?

While the models show a good chance that something big could develop, experts also note that these readings tend to be higher due to general warming trends affecting the baselines.

“We have an underlying warming trend that makes our El Niños seem bigger than they actually are and makes our La Niños look smaller than they actually are because everything is getting warmer,” Lisonbee said. This year, Noaa began using a new model to better determine what might be abnormal and what is due to overall warming, but other tools still rely on historical data.

Spring also tends to present the clearest picture due to the natural transitions that occur during this time of year. “Although our models are currently predicting El Niño, and some models are making a very strong prediction, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the predictions change over the next few months,” Lisonbee said. “We call this the spring predictability barrier, and models tend to change quite a lot from one model run to the next.”

Even if, The probability is still high It is stated that El Niño will develop later this year. Time will tell how strong it will be. But as conditions begin to coalesce around the possibility of significant change, officials around the world are pressing for preparation.

“The most recent El Niño in 2023-24 was one of the five strongest El Niños on record and played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024.” in question Celeste Saulo, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, added in a written statement that authorities are carefully monitoring conditions to inform important decisions.

“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña help us avoid economic losses of millions of dollars and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy and water management. They are also an important part of the climate intelligence provided by WMO to support humanitarian operations and disaster risk management, thereby saving lives.”