Argentina goes to polls amid economic crisis and Trump ‘interference’ | Javier Milei
A.Argentina’s radical libertarian leader Javier Milei faces a pivotal moment in his presidency as voters prepare to make their verdict on his two-year rule on Sunday, amid a political and economic crisis and accusations that his ally Donald Trump is meddling in the country’s affairs.
A poor performance in Sunday’s by-elections would be a major blow for Milei, who came to power in December 2023 with promises to usher in “a new era of peace and prosperity” by reducing spending and inflation.
Milei has had some success in reining in triple-digit inflation, but the 55-year-old former TV celebrity has been plagued by a series of crises in recent months, including corruption scandals involving his sister, chief of staff Karina Milei and another close ally with ties to an alleged drug trafficker, and the sell-off of Argentina’s currency, the peso.
In August, Milei was pelted with stones by angry voters, and the following month his La Libertad Avanza party suffered a stinging defeat in provincial elections in Buenos Aires, home to 40% of Argentina’s 45 million citizens.
The US president, Milei’s most powerful foreign friend, has thrown him a lifeline in the form of a bailout package totaling US$40bn (£30bn). But even Trump painted a grim picture of the South American country’s stagnant economy, telling reporters last week: “Argentina is fighting for its life… They’re dying.”
Trump warned he could cancel the aid package if Milei fails in Sunday’s vote, where half the seats in the 257-member lower house and 24 seats in the 72-member Senate are up for grabs. “If he doesn’t win, we’re leaving,” Trump said while hosting Milei at the White House last week.
Trump’s apparent attempt to influence Argentine voters is not his first intervention in South American politics this year. Starting in July, the US president has sought to derail the trial of his far-right ally, former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, with a campaign of tariffs and sanctions against Brazil and its officials. But that campaign failed, boosting the political fortunes of Brazil’s leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva while also failing to save Bolsonaro from a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup.
Milei’s political opponents in Argentina also predict that Trump’s maneuvers will backfire.
Economist and Peronist Itai Hagman, who is seeking re-election to Buenos Aires’ lower house on Sunday, accused Trump of trying to “usurp” Argentine voters by threatening to withdraw the bailout.
“This is a clear interference in the internal affairs of another country,” Hagman said. “Argentine people [will] …defend their sovereignty and democracy. “They will vote according to their own interests and wishes, not according to what the president of another country says.”
Hagman described Sunday’s election as a referendum on “a libertarian anarcho-capitalist experiment” that “caused brutal economic and social suffering” with severe austerity measures and “decided to hand over the management of the economy to the authorities of another country.”
Milei allies are asking voters to be patient. “We cannot solve all the problems that the country has had for 100 years in two years,” said Gonzalo Roca, Freedom Progress’s main congress candidate in Córdoba. He insisted the country was “on the right track” but acknowledged that Milei’s plan required “effort and sacrifice”.
Gustavo Córdoba, a political analyst and co-director of the consulting firm Zuban Córdoba, predicted that voters will “punish Milei for his economic woes” after his survey showed that 60% of Argentines cannot make ends meet.
Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin America program at the Stimson Center in Washington, said social dissatisfaction has been growing since the beginning of this year among voters who were promised “an era of shared prosperity” if they endured Milei’s structural adjustment.
“It hasn’t really happened,” Gedan added, pointing to a growing perception among Argentines that “prosperity is around the corner and always will be.”
Gedan believed that Milei was facing a crisis moment this weekend. He said: ““If it performs very badly, you could face a real economic and financial crisis and another crisis in the peso.”
Gedan said a “mixed” outcome was more likely, which would allow Milei to achieve some success in increasing his party’s representation in congress and serve out the remaining half of his four-year term, but would “make it really difficult for him to continue transforming Argentina in a sustainable way.”
Argentina’s president enjoyed a long honeymoon despite politically damaging budget cuts, according to Gedan.
“There was no massive public protest. He was not besieged by national strikes over his union activism… But his political honeymoon was inevitably to end: his was longer than that of many of his peers – especially given the shock therapy he administered. But it could not last forever.””
