Armenia prepares for an election that could reshape ties with Moscow and the West

of Armenia Sunday’s parliamentary elections will be a vote on his geopolitical future, as incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seeks closer ties with the European Union and the United States despite long-standing ties with Russia, which his critics support.

Many analysts prefer Pashinyan’s The Civil Contract Party will retain control of parliament, but the Caucasus nation’s place on the international stage has been put under scrutiny, with many opposition parties running on pro-Russian platforms.

Russian President in the months before the elections Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials I warned Armenia joining the EU could cause major economic damage by disrupting its trade ties with Moscow and its allies.

“These are the first elections in Armenia’s history where geopolitical orientation has become a decisive issue,” analyst and former Armenian Parliament member Mikayel Zolyan told The Associated Press from Yerevan. “Until now, Armenia remained within Russia’s sphere of influence and this was considered normal, but now for the first time this situation is being questioned.”

Armenians disappointed with Moscow on Karabakh issue

Relations between Moscow and Armenia soured after Azerbaijan took control in 2023. The entire Karabakh region. The mountainous region has been controlled by ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia for decades as part of a long conflict between neighboring countries.

Armenian officials accused Russian peacekeepers deployed in the region of not being able to stop Azerbaijan’s attack. Moscow, which is busy with conflicts in Ukraine, denied the accusations, saying its troops had no authority to intervene.

“The image of Russia as the guarantor of Armenian security turned out to be not based on reality, and after the Karabakh war everything collapsed,” said Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan.

Pashinyan has begun to cautiously weaken ties with Moscow by joining the International Criminal Court in 2023 and suspending its participation in the Moscow-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization in 2024.

Armenia also officially declared its desire to join the EU and European Political Community summit In Yerevan at the beginning of May.

A convincing victory in the parliamentary elections would give Pashinyan the authority to continue this trend and reach an agreement with Azerbaijan.

Western ties could benefit

Western countries have tried to demonstrate some of the advantages that closer ties can bring.

In August, US President Donald Trump hosted Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to sign an agreement that declared an end to decades of hostilities and included provisions for the creation of a new transit corridor between Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhchivan. An agreement reached in February could pave the way for a US company to build a new nuclear reactor in Armenia.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also said Europe is ready to invest in Armenia’s energy industry and its “burgeoning digital scene.”

Trump supported Pashinyan, calling him a “great friend” and a leader who made his country “strong, rich and very safe.”

Opposition parties support Moscow ties

Much of the opposition in Armenia is still dominated by pro-Russian groups, and many oppose normalizing relations with Azerbaijan. Key opposition figures called for Pashinyan to step back due to the loss of Karabakh.

19 political forces consisting of two blocs and 17 parties are participating in the elections.

Pashinyan’s main rival is the Strong Armenia Party, which wants closer working relations with Russia and accuses Pashinyan of trying to start a war with Moscow. The party is led by Armenian-Russian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who is on trial for calling for the overthrow of the Armenian government. He denies the accusations.

Other potential candidates include former President Robert Kocharyan, who leads the Hayastan bloc and has accused Pashinyan of “seriously undermining” relations with Russia.

Russia applies economic pressure

Russia, which has a military base in Armenia, warned that Yerevan’s orientation towards the West could lead to serious political and economic consequences.

Putin likened Armenia’s path to Ukraine’s thinly veiled threats, claiming that Russia’s conflict with Ukraine began with its attempts to join the EU.

In recent weeks, Russia has imposed new restrictions on Armenian products, citing hygiene violations, banning Armenian flowers, some types of cognac and wine, eggplants, potatoes, dried fruits, fish and more.

Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian-led customs union, came under official review at a members’ meeting in Kazakhstan in May, threatening a complete suspension of membership by December.

During the Kazakhstan summit, the governments of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan also demanded that Armenia hold a referendum on whether to remain in their group or apply for EU membership. Pashinyan denied the necessity of such a vote.

Armenian government statistics show that in 2025, 38% of Armenia’s exports will go to countries within the Eurasian Economic Union, with the vast majority going to Russia. By comparison, only 8% of trade was going to the EU.

Russia’s measures prompted von der Leyen to announce on Thursday that the 27-nation bloc would send 50 million euros ($58 million) to support Armenia. In the statement, he said that Russia was “weaponizing” economic relations and that the import ban was “nothing but economic pressure.”

We face an uncertain future

Russia can put more pressure on Armenia because it controls a significant part of the country’s energy and infrastructure and provides cheap gas.

“It is completely unrealistic to say that Armenia will somehow be able to defeat Russian influence in a short time,” analyst Zolyan said.

Armenia’s civil society is also concerned about what they describe as Russian-backed disinformation campaigns ahead of the vote. Moscow denies any involvement.

Daniel Ionnisyan, president of the League of Informed Citizens, an independent election observer, told the AP that his organization has documented examples of Russian interference through social media campaigns, cyber attacks, vote buying and bribery of journalists.

This echoes the findings of a delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe that visited Yerevan in May and said foreign interference included illegal political financing, cyber attacks, economic pressure and direct attempts to manipulate the electoral process.

“These hybrid tactics aim not only to influence public opinion, but also to gain long-term geopolitical influence over Armenia,” the delegation said.

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Sam McNeil in Brussels contributed to this report.