Bill Shorten raised concerns about Donald Trump and submarine deal risks in 2023 meeting
Updated ,first published
Former Labor Secretary Bill Shorten has expressed concerns about the election of Donald Trump and the possibility of him compromising the AUKUS agreement at a tough 2023 cabinet meeting where Prime Minister Anthony Albanese wins approval for the landmark submarine deal.
As AUKUS critics embark on a public inquiry designed to dispel skepticism, this imprint has revealed details of a key federal cabinet meeting at which Labor signed off on the AUKUS “optimal path”.
Details of the cabinet discussion, confirmed by three sources who could not speak publicly about the secret and politically sensitive negotiations, reveal long-standing high-level questions about the possibility that the AUKUS plan could be derailed.
Sources said Shorten, Tanya Plibersek and Ed Husic posed questions about the deal at the cabinet meeting in March 2023.
With eight months to go before the November 2023 US elections, Shorten spoke of the unpredictability of his position on AUKUS should Trump win. AUKUS Skeptics at the Pentagon examined AUKUS One year into the Trump administration, the deal continues to move forward, albeit with three used submarines instead of two second-hand and one new US submarine.
Then NDIS minister Shorten is a Labor Right stalwart who supported the US alliance and procured the best nuclear submarines of any country.
The former Labor leader, never an ally of the prime minister, questioned whether crewed nuclear submarines would remain cutting-edge for decades to come as greater emphasis is placed on uncrewed submarines.
Finally, he spoke to cabinet about the risks of placing such a big bet on a project that makes Australia dependent on a global supply chain whose final link is Australia.
Shorten, who is now vice-chancellor at the University of Canberra, refused to take his remarks when asked by this imprint on Thursday, citing cabinet secrecy. Plibersek and Husic also declined to comment.
Shorten, Plibersek and Husic supported the government’s decision to support AUKUS. But the emerging cabinet back-and-forth points to the daunting challenges of delivering on huge defense and industrial commitments and highlights the trade-offs and risks involved.
It also reveals that the debate over the deal is more intense than previously known, after years of complaints from unions, anti-war activists, former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and others on the Left who claimed Labor failed to do due diligence before signing up to the Morrison-era pact.
“There was at least some questioning and discussion between ministers,” said a source involved in the initial decision-making process.
At a 2023 cabinet meeting following separate meetings of the national security committee, an “optimal path” for the purchase of three Virginia-class submarines from the early 2030s was signed to fill the gap before new dedicated AUKUS submarines are built.
Husic, now a backbencher and factional rival of Defense Minister Richard Marles, went public last week and questioned the latest arrangement for the purchase of three submarines already in service.
Former US ambassador and ASIO boss Dennis Richardson argued the change was irrelevant.
“One of the biggest blows I’ve ever seen in my life was the insistence that we buy three Virginias in service instead of two Virginias that were new and in service,” he said in Sydney.
Gareth Evans, who served as foreign secretary from 1988 to 1996, used the first hearing of a public inquiry into AUKUS to argue that the nuclear-powered submarine plan had been “misunderstood from the start”, making Australia a “convenient cash cow” for the US.
A long-time critic of the plan argued that the AUKUS submarine plan would likely be seen as one of the country’s worst foreign policy and defense blunders and called on the Albanian government to quickly develop a backup plan in case the deal collapses.
Evans’ view was rejected by former cabinet colleague Kim Beazley, who argued that it would be a huge mistake for Australia to abandon AUKUS in favor of a less capable submarine type and said Australia’s purchase of the three Virginia-class submarines in service was better than the original plan.
“Those who deny or ignore the loss of Australian sovereign independence that our commitment to the AUKUS project necessarily involves are simply defying reality,” Evans said in a submission to the inquiry.
“And those who accept the fact that we have lost our sovereignty, but actually applaud it as a price worth paying for our preservation… appear to have lost not only a sense of national pride, but also Australia’s national interests.”
The crowdfunded public inquiry, which held its first hearings in Melbourne on Thursday, is chaired by former Labor Minister and anti-nuclear campaigner Peter Garrett.
Beazley, who was defense minister from 1984 to 1990, urged Australians not to underestimate the opportunity to acquire some of the world’s stealthiest and fastest submarines.
“We need a platform of this caliber if we can achieve it. The balance of power is constantly shifting against us and we need something really strong,” he said.
“Missing this opportunity would be a blow to our national survival. I hope we continue this for the sake of my children and grandchildren.”
Conventional diesel submarines are becoming increasingly easier to detect, strengthening the presence of nuclear-powered submarines for an island continent like Australia, the head of the Australian War Memorial said.
“Everything that can be seen can be shot, everything that cannot be seen can survive,” he said.
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Paul Sakkal is the Chief Political Correspondent. He has previously covered Victorian politics and won the Walkley award as well as the 2025 Press Gallery Journalist of the Year award. Contact him securely on Signal @paulsakkal.14.Connect with: X or email.
