What Happens To Russia If Iran Weakens? Putin’s Dilemma In West Asia | World News
New Delhi: As the struggle between Israel and Iran intensifies, questions about what Iran can mean both strategically and geopolitically. When Iran is directly under military attack from Israel and under the increasing international isolation, many analysts believe that a change in power dynamics can leave Russia more vulnerable in West Asia – a region in which it has been struggling to maintain its influence.
The ground for this anxiety lies at the end of 2024, when Syrian President Bashar al -Assad had to resign and take refuge in Moscow. Assad has been an important ally for Russia in West Asia for more than a decade. His separation not only pointed out the collapse of one of Russia’s closest partnerships in the region, but also expressed his concerns about the future of the Russian influence, especially the growing Israeli-American alignment.
Now, when Iran is faced with Israel attacks and does not look at direct military support from Moscow, some observers “Why is Russia on the sidelines?” He asks.
Russia officially took a warning and impartial stance. President Vladimir Putin condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran, but on June 13, he called diplomacy while talking to both Israel and Iranian leaders shortly after the conflict erupted. Putin stressed that the Iranian nuclear problem should be solved through dialogue, not power.
Putin later said that the UAE’s President Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan was willing to mediate Russia between the fighting parties. Although these efforts suggest that Russia wants to be seen as a peaceful, the lack of concrete support for Iran has removed the eyebrows – especially in Tehran Moscow’s wider regional ambitions is accepted as a strategic partner.
Analysts said that the answer was in Moscow’s own limitations. Russia has depths in the Ukrainian conflict and cannot afford to open another front. He also does not want to push the United States to buy a more difficult line.
Russia pointed out that if the swamp is not made in Ukraine, it may have taken a stronger attitude with Iran. However, today’s situation was reversed. Iran, which has previously provided drone to Russia, is now the person who needs weapons. Moscow is likely to provide advanced military assistance while struggling to renew its own stocks.
In addition, the background negotiations between Putin and US President Donald Trump may also shape Russia’s silent reaction. “Russia is trying to preserve her ability to speak with Washington. Siding with Iran can clearly close that door,” he explained.
A strategic, economic risk for Moscow
Despite his neutral stance, Russia has a lot to lose if Iran falls. If Iran weakened, experts warned, and the US and Israel could reinforce their dominance over West Asia. “This is not a scenario that Russia, China, Türkiye or Islamic countries will be comfortable,” they argued.
Iran’s loss can mark the end of the multipolar effect in West Asia. Moscow has already lost Assad in Syria. If the Iranian government would collapse under military pressure, Russia would have lost another important regional ally. The expectation creates more complications for the balance of power in the Middle East and Russia’s long -term ambitions in the region.
However, there are some potential benefits. A long -term conflict in West Asia can increase global oil prices and increase Russian revenues. Nevertheless, the economic gain cannot compensate for the loss of strategic depth in the Middle East.
It is reported that Moscow is trying to position itself as a potential peaceful in the region, but Trump’s latest comments show that the United States may be indifferent to any diplomatic role for Russia.
“Trump’s strategy seems to be one of the maximum pressure. This leaves very little space for Russia to mediate,” Analysts said.
BRICS and SCO’s restrictions
Iran is a member of both the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), but these groups are silent. Observers say this is not the military, but economic and political alliances. “These platforms are not designed to provide collective security. In addition, most members of India and China do not want to antagonize the West,” he said.
Countries like China and Russia are also careful against the US secondary sanctions. If Washington brings punishing measures, it may harm its economies and force them to rethink how far they can go to support Iran.
Analysts warned that a defeat for Iran will further further further proposal in favor of Israel. Assad increasingly stressed that Hamas and Hezbollah were weakened and Gaza is ruined, the last important weight against Iran’s Israeli power in the region. If Iran is neutralized, the remaining influence of Russia in West Asia may collapse. China would become more dependent on pro -US Gulf states for energy.
This will also take a blow to the idea of a “multipolar world olan, an idea that is frequently encouraged by Russia, China and India. A single -polar domination ruled by the United States can also become the descriptive feature of global geopolitics.
However, the observers add a careful note – “Even if Iran falls, the US does not guarantee the victory of the US. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria – Western interventions often produce indecision, not determination.”
Fear is that Iran’s defeat can trigger the repetition of the cycle – regime change, refugee crises, increasing extremism and a long chaos.
Russia’s silence may be a tactical choice, but it can come with a significant strategic cost.
