As Ortega bans elections, some Nicaraguans hope for U.S. intervention

MEXICO CITY — Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega is the longest-serving leader in the Americas, having eliminated term limits shortly after taking office nearly two decades ago.

The former guerrilla fighter violently suppressed protests and closed churches, universities, nonprofits and newsrooms. Ahead of the latest presidential vote in 2021, he eliminated competition by jailing his most credible rivals.

So few Nicaraguans were surprised last week when Ortega, 80, marked the 47th anniversary of the leftist movement’s revolution by saying “there will never be elections here again.” On the contrary, some hoped that Ortega’s brazen decree might draw renewed attention to a country that many thought had been forgotten even as it sank further into authoritarianism.

Dora María Tellez, a prominent critic of Ortega, said Nicaraguans “live in a state of terror”; He spent nearly two years in prison before being stripped of his citizenship and exiled in 2023. Ortega and Ortega’s wife, Rosario Murillo, whom Ortega appointed co-chairman last year, have such a strong grip on power that “a true democratic transition will require intense external pressure,” Tellez said.

Many Nicaraguans have long hoped that Washington would help apply this pressure. Some applauded the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro and supported the White House’s ongoing campaign against Cuba’s communist leadership.

But there is little evidence that the White House is prepared to intervene directly in Nicaragua, even as Secretary of State Marco Rubio harshly condemned Ortega’s election executive order last week, saying “the Trump administration and the international community will not remain silent as the dictatorship deepens.”

Nicaragua, the poorest country in the hemisphere after Haiti, lacks the reserves of oil and rare earth minerals that make Venezuela an attractive target for President Trump, said Kai Thaler, a professor of global studies at UC Santa Barbara.

There is also the fact that Nicaraguan immigrants in the United States are a smaller and less powerful force than Cuban Americans, many of whom have lobbied Washington for decades to isolate and oust Havana’s leaders.

“Regime change in Cuba is a much bigger priority for the U.S. government because of people like Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz who are themselves part of the Cuban diaspora,” Thaler said.

Another reason is the perception that Nicaragua is relatively stable despite widespread political repression and poverty, said Manuel Orozco, an analyst at the Washington-based think tank Inter-American Dialogue.

Remittances from abroad help stabilize the economy, accounting for almost a third of gross domestic product. The last major pro-democracy movement was suppressed in 2018, when police and pro-government paramilitary groups killed 362 protesters at a demonstration organized by the United Nations. in question It amounted to a crime against humanity.

“In general, foreign policy is reactive, not proactive,” Orozco said, noting that Trump has his hands full with Venezuela, where the democratic transition is uncertain, and Iran, where the US war has cost more than $37 billion and shows no signs of ending.

Ortega has established close ties with Iran and China and has long criticized the United States for interfering in Nicaragua’s affairs. In his speech last week, he said the days of “Yankee-backed parties” were over.

He has been a prominent figure in Nicaragua since the 1970s, when his army of Sandinista revolutionaries helped overthrow U.S.-backed right-wing dictator Anastasio Somoza, whose family controlled the country for four decades and enriched himself even as most Nicaraguans lived in poverty.

Ortega first served as president in the 1980s during a bloody civil war that pitted the Sandinistas against U.S.-financed Contra rebels. He was voted out in 1990 and returned to power in 2007.

But support for Ortega and his anti-American rallying cry waned as Murillo, 75, who largely became the face of the nation as he and Ortega’s health deteriorated, eliminated all checks and balances on their power, packed the judiciary with aides and installed a system of state surveillance that prevented many Nicaraguans from having their voices heard.

“We can’t raise our voices or express our opinions,” said a woman in Nicaragua who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she feared government retaliation and said she would welcome a Venezuelan-style U.S. intervention.

“We live in fear that the property we have worked a lifetime to acquire may be confiscated at any moment, or they may throw us into a prison from which we may not survive.”

Some, including Tellez, believe a diplomatic solution is still possible in which a coalition of countries would negotiate with Nicaraguan leaders for a transition to democracy. He believes Ortega’s decision to cancel the elections could be a sign that support for the government is eroding even among hardline Sandinistas.

Others, including Thaler, said the country’s leaders could use the election as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with the United States. Shortly after Ortega’s provocative statement, Murillo went on the radio and suggested that the country could hold future elections, but they would be “our elections.”

For some time, Nicaragua’s leaders have largely avoided provoking Trump.

Following US action in Venezuela, Nicaragua announced measures to appease Washington; He released dozens of prisoners and reimposed visa requirements for Cubans to make it harder for immigrants to reach the U.S. border.

But in recent months Ortega has been more outspoken, declaring in April that Trump must suffer from “mental instability” for waging war against Iran.

Uncertainty reigns on the streets of Nicaragua. One woman, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said she was silently praying for U.S. intervention. “I see it as a blessing,” he said.

But voicing such views, even behind closed doors, can be dangerous.

Marvin Martínez, the national chairman of the Conservative Party, which was stripped of its legal status in 2021, said government spies lurk “even within families.”

Many of Ortega’s allies in the revolution long ago turned against him, saying he had betrayed their dreams of a socialist utopia and resembled the dictator they helped overthrow.

Author and former guerrilla Giaconda Belli, who left the Sandinista party in 1990 and now lives in exile, said she knows firsthand that it is possible to overthrow an authoritarian leader.

“I’m sure we will get out of this situation,” Belli said. But with elections now banned and protest movements suppressed, “we will have to find a way to escape the tyranny of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo through an alternative route,” he said.

Times staff writer Linthicum reported from Mexico City and special correspondent López from Jacksonville, Florida.