As U.S.-Iran deal nears, Trump ally warns against creating perception Tehran controls Hormuz — ‘it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with’

President Donald Trump announced Saturday that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was close, but a top ally in Congress raised red flags about its implications for the balance of power in the Persian Gulf.

Trump said in his social media post that he met with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain.

“An Agreement has been substantially negotiated, subject to its conclusion, between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and various other countries on the list,” the Israeli Prime Minister wrote, adding that he had a separate meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump said final details were being discussed and would be announced soon, but that the agreement would also allow for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, among other provisions.

Before the announcement, reports said An agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days would involve Iran gradually reopening the strait and agreeing to discuss its uranium stockpile.

In response, the United States will gradually ease the naval blockade, ease sanctions, and unfreeze Iranian assets held abroad.

But Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., warned against a deal that would effectively recognize Tehran’s ability to control the strait.

“If an agreement is reached to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran is still considered capable of destroying the Gulf’s important oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as a dominant power. [sic] “The power that requires a diplomatic solution,” he said. Published on X Just before Trump’s announcement.

He added that such a perception would represent a major shift in the regional balance of power and would eventually turn into a “nightmare” for Israel.

“Also, if these perceptions are true, it begs the question why the war started,” Graham said. “I am personally skeptical of the idea that Iran’s ability to terrorize the Bosphorus cannot be denied and that the region cannot defend itself against Iran’s military capacity. It is important that we get this right.”

One next postHe predicted that the conflicts in Lebanon and Iraq would worsen dramatically if a deal was struck with Iran that would allow the regime to survive and become stronger.

Similarly, Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., warned on Saturday He said news that the ceasefire would be extended for 60 days would be disastrous and that “everything achieved through Operation Epic Fury will be in vain.”

On Friday, he called on Trump to renew hostilities in the Iran war and open the Strait of Hormuz by force, saying the president was taking bad advice.

“Our Commander in Chief needs to authorize America’s capable armed forces to destroy Iran’s conventional military capabilities and reopen the strait.” Published on Wicker X. “Efforts to reach further agreements with Iran’s Islamist regime risks the perception of weakness. We must finish what we started. The time to act is now.”

Other Republicans also met, including Mike Pompeo, who served as CIA director and secretary of state during Trump’s first term.

He rejected the resulting deal as a repeat of Democratic policies and tantamount to paying Iran to build nuclear weapons.

Pompeo said, “Not from afar to America first. It’s very simple: Open the damn strait. Block Iran’s access to money. Eliminate Iran’s sufficient capacity so that it does not threaten our allies in the region.” said in x.

Iranian media said the Strait of Hormuz would remain under Tehran’s control. Days earlier, the regime established the Persian Gulf Strait Administration to formalize its control.

After effectively closing the narrow waterway shortly after the United States and Israel launched the war, Iran created a route near its territorial waters for ships to transit, provided they received approval from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

While the United States was trying to establish an alternative route near Omani waters, it was also clearing mines and sending destroyers to the strait to restore free navigation.

However, while a limited number of ships crossing the strait followed the Iranian route, Trump interrupted the military effort to protect the ships from Iranian attacks and reactivate traffic.

At the same time, the United States imposed its own blockade of ships leaving or entering Iranian ports, as well as “shadow fleet” tankers with connections to Tehran elsewhere in the world.

The idea was to cut off the regime’s source of revenue and force it to shut down oil fields when storage capacity was full, as pumped crude had nowhere to go.

Iran is still finding ways to store its oil, gradually curtailing production to further delay the “top of the tanks” once storage reaches maximum levels.

As a result, the regime remained defiant and gave little ground in negotiations in the face of Trump’s constant threats to bomb Iran again.

Meanwhile, global oil markets are heading off a cliff, with more than 10 million barrels of oil a day being written off inventories.

The United States and other top oil-consuming countries have been releasing crude oil reserves, but that hasn’t fully made up for the missing barrels in the Middle East. Stocks are rapidly moving towards dangerous levels.

JPMorgan predicted that commercial oil stocks in the developed world “could approach operational stress levels” as early as June. Saudi Aramco He said global gasoline and jet fuel stocks could reach “critically low levels” ahead of summer.

“But if the Strait remains effectively closed and commercial oil stocks in the OECD continue to decline at the same pace as in April, oil stocks could reach critical low levels by the end of June,” Hamad Hussain, chief climate and commodity economist at Capital Economics, said in a note last week.

“This would be consistent with Brent crude oil prices reaching an all-time nominal peak and could require more erratic and economically damaging disruptions to oil demand.”

He added that given the extent of supply losses in the Middle East, the risk of “non-linear” price increases would increase as long as the strait remained closed.

In other words, instead of following a straight upward path, it is possible for oil prices to follow a parabolic path, looking more like the curved end of a hockey stick.

Analysts at UBS also warned that “buffers are now largely depleted,” saying oil inventories are near record lows.

UBS said oil prices could become more volatile as stocks fall further, highlighting “the risk of panic buying if physical displacement intensifies and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.”

This story first appeared on: Fortune.com