Assembly Elections 2026: INDIA bloc’s foundational pillars jolted

The opposition INDIA bloc reeled under election tremors on Monday; Congress, TMC, DMK and Left have won in four of the five election matches in this round of assembly elections; The Congress-led UDF’s victory over the LDF in Kerala was the only saving grace. This has already made many Opposition campers worried about the unity and future of the INDIA bloc, as they understand the internal tension within the bloc and with these setbacks the contradictions are reaching boiling point. The opposition’s defeats also raise doubts about their ability to credibly defend their boards against the SIR and the women’s reservation bill.Read more: How TVK’s Vijay did what politics couldn’t do in decades?

The desperate Opposition hopes that they can stop the galloping BJP in this round of meetings, following the saffron party’s poor performance in the last Lok Sabha polls and its victories in Bihar, Delhi, Maharashtra and Haryana; It turned into a nightmare after the BJP attacked the strategically key state of West Bengal while protecting Assam and Puducherry (with its ally).
The expanding saffron environment and the Opposition’s increasing failure to overcome it has added psychological burden to the Opposition’s political weakness. This adds to the duties of the Opposition in the wars of the coming year in many important States.

Read more: BJP’s Bengal victory revives Gorkha hopes of ‘permanent political solution’ within Constitution

While smaller parties like the Congress and IUML have offered to support Tamil Nadu’s new star Vijay’s TVK if a few numbers are missing, it is being closely watched whether he will agree to this fragile plan or work for a stable agreement with the AIADMK and New Delhi.
Rahul Gandhi’s behavior towards members of the INDIA bloc during this campaign tour was seen as an extension of his actions in Opposition circles; It has created a frosty relationship with its ally RJD in the recent Bihar polls due to squabbles over seat sharing and joint campaigns. On the eve of elections in Tamil Nadu, one section of Team Rahul proposed an alliance with Vijay, while the other sought more seats and power sharing with the DMK but found both plans not materialised. This coolness in Congress-DMK ties meant that there would be no MK Stalin-Gandhi joint campaign, despite the much-demonstrated ‘brotherly love’ for each other. While Gandhi had to campaign against the TMC in West Bengal and the Left in Kerala, given that the Congress had no alliance with either, he still personally targeted Mamata Banerjee and Pinarayi Vijayan – more than the BJP – accusing them of being corrupt, asking why the BJP’s B teams and the ED had not done so, although Gandhi had a track record of inflicting maximum defeat on the Congress against the BJP, and he and his family were against them on allegations of corruption. Although he always termed their actions as vendetta of the Centre, his action against them surprised the Opposition camps. Many feel that this has sown resentment in the INDIA bloc. Many feel that this ‘streak’ of Gandhi has made him ponder whether he should ‘take a risk’ on SP leader Akhilesh Yadav, who is next in line in the UP polls, or join the non-Congress fray in the Opposition camp. While celebrating the UDF’s victory in Kerala, Gandhi tried to tactically defeat Banerjee’s claim of “election theft” in West Bengal.

BJP’s win in West Bengal and Vijay’s TVK Tamil Nadu mark the latest developments in a number of states such as UP, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha and Assam, which the Congress initially lost to regional parties but was later won by the BJP or new regional forces.

A comic relief that even the Congress circles enjoyed was the defeat of Gaurav Gogoi, Gandhi’s friend and the hand-picked captain for the Assam war; because his elevation on the eve of the polls, against the wishes of most senior state leaders, helped BJP CM Himanta Biswa Sarma ‘cry out’ the remaining valuable Assam Congress leaders and avenge the Rahul-Gaurav team that had caused Sarma to quit the Congress a decade ago.