Atlanta Falcons 2026 betting preview: Limited upgrades has new head coach Kevin Stefanski facing a steep climb
Welcome to us 32 teams 2026 NFL Season Preview Series! As we count down to launch, we’re breaking down each franchise into sections. Today, we’re highlighting: Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South. Each preview analyzes the team’s offseason moves, coaching staff, projected strengths and weaknesses, schedule, win total, and best future bets.
Atlanta missed the playoffs for the eighth straight season in 2025-26 and subsequently fired former head coach Raheem Morris. The Falcons finished 8-9, falling below their regular season win total for the third straight season. This franchise hasn’t recovered since the end of the season Matt Ryan Era.
Hiring two-time NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski to replace Morris is a step in the right direction. However, Atlanta made very few changes to its roster this summer, ranking 24th in free agent spending.
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Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts Sr. celebrates with WR Drake London after a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. (Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images)
The Falcons finished below .500 last season despite playing the fourth-easiest schedule in the league. Atlanta is expected to play the 20th easiest schedule this season. That’s one of the reasons I expect the Falcons to compete in 2026-27.
Kevin Stefanski Inherits Some Legitimate Offensive Talent
For the record, I am a “Stefanski Guy.”
Additionally, the NFC South is the softest division in the NFL, and the Falcons have an above-average offensive line ranked 13th according to ESPN’s Mike Clay. They also have a solid roster of game-changers in RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts.
But the NFL is a quarterback-focused league, and Atlanta is sketchy at quarterback.
The Falcons have third-year QB Michael Penix Jr., who is more injury-prone and is coming off a season-ending injury. He bought a flyer for the fragile Tua Tagovailoa as an insurance policy for him.
Atlanta Falcons’ first-year QB Tua Tagovailoa practices during minicamp. (Dale Zanine-Imagn Images)
Pro Football Focus ranked Penix 35th out of 38 quarterbacks last season and Tagovailoa 32nd. I assume Tua will win the starting job since Stefanski was not in Atlanta when Penix was drafted and there is no commitment to him.
Considering Stefanski and Tagovailoa’s track record, I can’t rule out the Falcons pulling off a good surprise this season. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
Atlanta Defense Can Take a Step Back
The Falcons’ defense was their best unit last season. However, the defense is not as predictive as the offense and Atlanta will play a tougher schedule this year.
Stefanski hired defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, which provided some continuity. Unfortunately, the Falcons lost last season’s leading tackler, LB Kaden Ellis, to the New Orleans Saints in free agency.
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Also under investigation for battery and stalking is the leading sack returner, pass rusher James Pearce Jr. It may not be. Unless these charges are dropped, Pearce will likely remain suspended for the first part of the season.
Atlanta Falcons lead James Pearce Jr. (27) reacts after a defensive stop in the first quarter against the Carolina Panthers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on November 16, 2025. (Brett Davis/Imagn Images)
Whether it’s the natural difference or tougher opposing offenses, Atlanta’s offense will have to do more to shore up its defense this season.
I don’t trust this to happen.
Falcons’ Schedule Doesn’t Offer Easy Wins
For argument’s sake, let’s assume the Falcons win all three of their home games. This is already a friendly prediction because I expect improvement from every other NFC South team.
After those three wins, I give Atlanta just one more victory: at the Cleveland Browns in Week 14.
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This match carries an obvious revenge angle for Stefanski, who will be coaching against his former employer. Still, it’s not something given to me.
The Falcons are and will be a domed team brick cold in Cleveland when they face the Browns in mid-December.
Best Bet: Falcons Win Under 5.5
My favorite look of the 2026 Atlanta Falcons Alternate wins UNDER 5.5 (+180) on DraftKings.
Atlanta finishing last in the NFC South at +160 was another option, but as I will discuss in a separate article, there is a wide range of possible outcomes for the 2026 New Orleans Saints.
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