AUKUS and the submarine illusion: Australia’s $368 billion surrender

AUKUS and the submarine illusion: Australia’s 8 billion surrender

Dr. While Washington debates whether it can spare submarines, Canberra continues to pay for ships it will never fully control, writes Binoy Kampmark.

There were never the sharpest negotiators in the room; Bertie Wooster he desperately needs the good advice of his manservant, Jeeves. The Australian defense establishment has yet to find a wise mind to finally tell them they have $368 billion. AUKUS The agreement between the three Anglophone powers of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States has only one major beneficiary in mind.

As the Australian Treasury grows weary of dumping money into US naval yards on covert proliferation actions for Washington’s military industrial complex ($1.6 billion have been doled out so far), it is becoming increasingly clear that a group of officials and lawmakers are unwilling either to release the Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines (SSN-774) to the Royal Australian Navy or to give their sailors sovereign control of them if they are to reach the Pacific. journey.

The sale of SSN-774 to Canberra is part of Pillar 1 of the AUKUS initiative. to foreseeIn addition to providing such boats to the Royal Australian Navy (RAN), the rotational deployment of four US SSNs and one UK SSN to Australia from outside Western Australia, followed by the construction of three to five replacement SSNs for the US Navy and assisting Australia in the construction of three to five SSNs based on a new UK-Australian design.

A good read of the reluctance regarding the Virginia-class boats can be obtained from invaluable reports by the Congressional Research Service, which Australian officials and journalists often ignore and seem reluctant to consult. Given that the US Congress will be the final decision maker on whether a single Virginia SSN will be transferred to Australia. National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), these comprehensive overviews summarize the concerns of US lawmakers and the likely direction of AUKUS’s prospects. Australia’s timid and indecisive political class ignores them at their peril.

Latest report written by Naval Affairs Analyst Ronald O’Rourke The book, published on January 26, 2026, does not have an eye-catching title. But there’s enough punch Navy Virginia Class Submarine Program and AUKUS Submarine (Pillar 1) Project: Congressional Background and Issues Putting officials in Canberra into a nightmare-inducing state of anxiety.

The issues identified in the report for Congress are not new. These include whether the purchase rate for SSN-774’s fiscal year (FY 2026) and subsequent years should remain at two boats per year or be adjusted; How the Navy and Department of Defense have used funds from the submarine industrial base (SIB) since Fiscal Year 2018 and how this has affected the production of Virginia-class boats; Maintenance backlog and impacts of SSNs in service ‘On the SSN and overall Navy capabilities and the steps the Navy plans to take to reduce the backlog.’; and the potential benefits, costs and risks arising from the purchase rate and the manner in which SIB funds are used.

The crucial test here, and the test that will rule out any suggestion of Australian sovereignty in this matter, is how to do such a thing. ‘the benefits, costs and risks will be weighed against the alternative of procuring up to eight additional Virginia-class SSNs to be retained in US Navy service and operated out of Australia along with the US and UK SSNs currently planned to be operated under Pillar 1’.

As with previous reports, concerns are raised about the lack of clarity around whether Canberra would support the US in a future conflict with China:

Selling three to five Virginia-class SSNs to Australia would transform those SSNs from boats that could be used in a US-China crisis or conflict to boats that might not be used in a US-China crisis or conflict.” The report goes on to quite overwhelmingly question Australia’s prowess regarding the use of the boats, for “deterrence against China would become less convincing if Beijing found reason, whether true or not, to believe that Australia could use its Virginia-class boats less effectively than the US Navy would.”

Australia’s role as an annexe of the US strategic deterrent against China in the Pacific has been roughly confirmed; their bases were merely platforms for Washington’s war-making plans; The RAN, however, was left unnoticed and minimized. This is both for the maritime component and RAAF Base Tindal in the Katherine area, which will host six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers. Australia’s member status Treaty of Rarotongaalso known as South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone AgreementIf it has not been done yet, it will no longer be valid.

AUKUS review conducted by the President of the United States EmbersUndersecretary of Defense Policy, Elbridge ColbyAlthough not in the public eye, it may not have deviated much from the basic premise that parting with the Virginia boats would only be possible if the rate of submarine production increased to twice a year, and given this, what strategic consequences would follow regarding US control over them.

Colby had was forewarned The AUKUS pact only “It will lead to more submarines being mass-produced in ten, 15, 20 years, which is well beyond the maximum danger window, which is actually this decade.”.

When Colby’s completed review was sent to the Australians last December, a Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell one was released expression Insisting that the recommendations of the review were in the interest of improving the security pact:

“Consistent with President Trump’s guidance that AUKUS should be ‘full steam ahead,’ the review identified opportunities to put AUKUS on the strongest possible foundation.”

It’s hard to see how Australia will do well here.

Australian experts on the strategic cocktail tour have suggestions on how to sell Canberra’s broader capitulation to the US empire and its military. These are extremely unoriginal.

For example, defense expert on the deployment of B-52s to the Northern Territory Miranda Cabinwrites for Lowy Institute TranslatorHe puts forward a rather testy line of propaganda cooperation:

‘The important thing is to emphasize joint plans for training and exercises that build solidarity and trust and increase regional interoperability.’

Such hypocrisy would magically dispel the image of Australia as merely a slave and willing client of US power.

Australian Minister of Defense Richard MarlesA fool of Chaucerian proportions deserves a praise star for denying what AUKUS actually entails. On his regular visits to Washington, he always returns with the same dull ignorance, unable to digest any conflicting briefings or literature that may emerge. He has a story to tell to the public he wants to adore, and he always insists on sticking to it.

It’s a shame for Australian voters that this was never true, let alone true.