AUKUS. Deal of the century! … For the Americans

Trump stated that the United States will continue AUKUS. Good news for the US, serious consequences for Australia. former submariner Rex Patrick reports.

“Submarines of our time!” He didn’t say it himself, but so could Anthony Albanese, who returned triumphant from his meeting with Donald Trump this week.

AUKUS is truly a great deal. At least for Americans.

“Trump won’t cancel AUKUS,” well-connected industry source says MWM two weeks ago.

“AUKUS is very good for US industry – it spends billions of dollars on Australian shipyards and then the submarines themselves are purchased. General Dynamics Electric Boat and Huntington Ingalls Industries will see tens of billions of Australian dollars flowing their way, as will Lockheed Martin and Raytheon,” the source said.

“And assuming things go well, the UK shipyard mess will see us go from three US Virginia-class submarines to five and then possibly eight. Australia will abandon the UK’s AUKUS-designed submarines and even more Australian money will flow into the bank accounts of US companies.”

They will lobby the White House to ensure that this cash flow continues.

And so far it’s clear that the lobbying effort is working. Trump approved AUKUS. That’s the kind of deal he likes.

Nuclear submarines may hit water faster after Trump talks

It would not be in Trump’s interest to withdraw, as former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull noted ahead of the meeting: “The AUKUS deal is a great deal for the Americans, a terrible deal for Australia, so there’s no way Donald Trump is going to walk away from it because what will he get?” he said.

Turnbull was right. He was also right in his analysis after the meeting: “Warm words do not make a submarine.”

Submarine problems

The United States is not building enough Virginia-class submarines. They are not even building enough for their own navy, let alone ours. This is the decisive truth that stands in the middle of the AUKUS sleigh.

AUKUS delusions. More rivets emerge in submarine drama

For more than a decade the US Government has been trying to build two Virginia submarines a year. But they couldn’t move the shipbuilding dial. They are currently struggling with 1.1 submarines per year; It is not even enough to meet their own demands, let alone the 2.3 boats they need to shoot a year to spare one or three submarines for Australia.

The views of US and Australian politicians run counter to the analysis of the US Congressional Research Service, the US Government Audit Office and the US Chief of Naval Operations. No matter how hard politicians twist, they can’t bring about a change in the engineering and construction being done in Groton, Connecticut, and Newport News, Virginia.

But Trump needn’t worry; He won’t be President when the first Virginia Class submarine fails to be delivered in the early 2030s because he’s doing this,

It would have a detrimental impact on the U.S. Navy’s undersea warfare capability.

The US Congress has enshrined the “America First” charter in AUKUS legislation, and the milestone is less than a decade away; There is little time for the U.S. submarine industrial base to take huge steps that are very easy to take but very difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.

Rudd gives his AUKUS speech in Washington, but is the USA marching?

It’s eroding our sovereignty

Meanwhile, MWMThe industry source has heralded the closure of some Australian Defense companies struggling to make ends meet after Defense canceled a number of local programs and failed to initiate renovations; In this way, they will be able to cover almost $10 billion in payments to both the US and UK governments to invest in their sectors.

AUKUS is sending Australia into a spiral of eroding sovereignty.

We are already tightly integrated into the US military, with common equipment, common regulations and common tactics. As the US turns its sights towards superpower rival China (incidentally our largest trading partner), we also see the US military footprint expanding on Australian soil:

• The long-standing Pine Gap joint communications and intelligence facility in Alice Springs,
• Critical subsea very low frequency communications station, in WA’s North West Cape
• A new mission briefing/intelligence center and aircraft parking aprons at RAAF Darwin,
• Fuel depot at Darwin Harbour, infrastructure at RAAF Tindal near Katherine,
• and logistics warehousing in both Victoria and Queensland.

And from 2027 the US Navy will have a forward staging base for Virginia-class submarines at HMAS Stirling near Perth.

US nuclear-powered and, possibly by the early 2030s, nuclear-armed submarines will use Western Australia as a strategic base for operations stretching from the Gulf of Aden to the Arabian Sea, from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea and the East China Sea and beyond.

This is all about strategic competition with China.

The Australian Defense Force will be short on independent capability as it diverts money to AUKUS. Industry will suffer. The taxpayer will suffer.

Government plays word game with nuclear weapons

The best deal in history

Trump must be wringing his hands. This will work well for the USA.

Billions of Australian dollars will flow into the continental US to contribute to the subsea industry; that’s for sure. Conversely, the US will almost certainly not be able to deliver. In case of non-delivery, there is no refund of the money spent.

Australia’s Collins Class submarine capability will further atrophy, as will the overall underfunded capabilities of the Australian Defense Force. Greater reliance on the US will lead to the US Navy stationing more submarines in Western Australia, the US Air Force deploying additional air capabilities to our north, and an increase in the number of US Marines returning to Darwin.

More than ever before, Australia will be made “a convenient piece of real estate” in US war planning (to adopt the words of the late Professor Des Ball, one of Australia’s most insightful strategic critics).

Australia will have no choice but to let the US do this… and we could be pressed for much more.

There will be no choice but to drag the USA into conflict with China.

We will have limited capabilities and remain completely dependent on red, white and blue military capabilities. When Richard Marles talks about sovereign abilities and decision-making, it is just a political scam.

When he retires, Trump will share his genius at Truth Social and how he led retired Prime Minister Albanese into what Paul Keating would call the best deal in all history, in the opinion of the White House and the Pentagon.

Agreement or no agreement, ‘Don’t beg the King. What is fraud?