Australia national security: This is the nation that Pauline Hanson has been waiting for
Idea
It has come to this point. Australians now trust the US president as much as they trust the leader of the Chinese Communist Party. And not because they think Xi Jinping is a paragon of great virtue. Most Australians recognize that Xi’s China is oppressive at home and a long-term military threat to Australia, according to the latest annual report. Lowy Institute questionnaire.
The reason for the distrust is that Donald Trump has done so much damage to the world. Only 21 per cent of Australians trust him to do the right thing in world affairs, according to the survey.
That’s the same 20 percent who, statistically speaking, trust Xi to do the right thing. The poll, which surveys about 2000 Australians each year about their feelings about the world, has a margin of error of 2.2 per cent.
As the survey confirms, Australians are in a dark and fearful mood. The collapse of trust in the US president is just one of the reasons. The Lowy survey quantifies others as well. Some are perceived as threats from outside, while others are seen as threats from within.
A record 55 per cent of people say there are too many immigrants in Australia. The proportion who view cultural diversity as a “positive” thing is still a whopping 73 percent, but there has been a whopping 20 percent drop in two years. This is the Australia Pauline Hanson has been waiting for.
For the first time in the survey’s history, a majority of Australians report feeling “unsafe” in the world. The 53 percent who say this today is even more than the 50 percent who said this at the beginning of the Covid-19 epidemic.
Biggest perceived threats? The global economic crisis, cyber attacks, authoritarian states, terrorism and a possible US-China war were mentioned by the majority.
So perhaps it’s not all that surprising that support for Australia’s nuclear weapons has also increased. Thirty-nine percent view it favorably, an increase of three points in four years; Lowy’s international security director, Sam Roggeveen, thinks this is “remarkable”.
Pollsters say Trump’s trust rating is “the lowest level of trust in any U.S. president in the history of the Lowy Institute survey,” which began 21 years ago. The leaders we trust less on the list of 14 are Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un.
Trump has waged his war against Iran so ineptly that, as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said, the much smaller country has “humiliated” the United States. Trump candidly acknowledged over the weekend that if Iran does not lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, there could be a “global depression” with stock prices at 1929 levels.
No wonder then that eight in 10 Australians disapprove of the way Trump is waging his senseless war.
But Australians are not rejecting the US. On the contrary, support for the US alliance remains strong at 73 percent, down a relatively modest 7 points since last year.
One fascinating finding is that Australians may be turning up our noses at the US leader’s stench, but we continue to embrace the country he leads, even as Japan, New Zealand and the UK score higher on the trust scale.
Similarly, Australians see a stark difference between the current US president and the long-term AUKUS agreement. Public support for the infrastructure and technology agreement remained unchanged at 68 percent, an increase of 1 point compared to last year.
Pro-AUKUS sentiment is proving implacable against time and criticism. In the Lowy survey, this rate never fell below 65 percent. “It is noteworthy that AUKUS support has remained solid since its announcement in 2022,” says Roggeveen.
Actually. Australia’s two leading defenders of the Chinese Communist Party, Paul Keating and Bob Carr, as well as the Greens and Malcolm Turnbull, will be disappointed that their relentless five-year campaign against the nuclear submarine project has made no difference.
One reason is that while public distrust of Trump runs deep, fear of China is perhaps stronger in posing a greater direct threat.
By a 54 per cent majority, Australians expect China to replace the US as the dominant superpower. Only three in 10 expect America to maintain its dominance. Perhaps that’s why respondents say Australia’s relationship with China is more important than its relationship with the United States. This is a first in the Lowy series, a liminal moment in Australian sensibility.
Yes, most people see the trade relationship as very important, but they are concerned about the intentions of the People’s Republic.
Most Australians expect China to pose a military threat to Australia within 20 years; This figure is 7 percentage points lower than last year, but still a significant majority of 62 percent.
Is this an irrational fear? “I think Australians are right to be concerned about the direction of both superpowers,” says Roggeveen, a stance he describes as “dual skepticism.”
“The military balance has changed significantly in the last decade and will continue in the next decade. There is currently no possibility of the United States reversing this trend.”
Roggeveen published a serious research paper last week. It is estimated that China will have 25 nuclear-powered attack submarines in the water within 10 years and the capacity to build three to four more per year. “All will likely deploy cruise missiles or perhaps hypersonic missiles,” he writes. Beijing also expects to have 35 conventional submarines.
The article reveals that Beijing’s military budget is expected to be around one trillion US dollars per year, similar to today’s spending by the United States. The report states: “China’s shipbuilding capacity is 200 times greater than that of the United States. China is the only country in the world that produces heavy bombers. It is the only country in the world where two fifth-generation jet fighter designs are in production and two sixth-generation designs are conducting flight tests. China is expected to triple the size of its nuclear weapons arsenal by 2035. All of this is happening as China’s ambition to become a regional and global power expands.”
With masterful understatement, Roggeveen advises that Australia “needs a serious response in our defensive planning”.
Australia has become a feared country. Unfortunately, there is much to fear.
Peter Hartcher is both international and political editor. His political column is published on Saturdays.
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Peter Hartcher is the political editor and international editor of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via email.
