Bessent, Warsh, Hassett are the leading contenders to get Fed chair job, CNBC survey finds
The Fed chair Jerome Powell is a virtual three -way tie to take its place as the Fed president when its duration is expired.
CNBC FED research said that 24% of the participants will be replaced by President Donald Trump’s Powell’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and 24% former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.
Behind him, with 22%, the President of the National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is. The current Fed Governor Chris Waller is more than 14%.
Trump called Powell’s resignation over and over again, saying he was late to reduce interest rates and thought of expelling him.
He also accused the President of the FED for the chairman of his headquarters of a $ 2.5 billion renovation and a separate building, accusing that Powell rejected and did not provide any evidence beyond the president’s cost -effectiveness.
After a recent visit to the construction site, the President facilitated his criticism of the project and the Fed’s monetary policy and claimed that he would not expel Powell. Powell’s term of office as president ends in May 2026, but may remain as governor until 2028.
In the survey, 84% said the president would not fire Powell before his end in May. There are fund managers, economists and strategists who participated in the survey.
“Jockey, the Fed continues to be the next Fed chair in the FED, while the Fed’s independence is already in danger,” the Fed continues. “These long rates raised and weakened the dollar. Especially when the expectation of the next Fed chair will be loyal to a Trump, there is little that does not believe that it will change.”
In general, when the participants asked the question in CNBC last 2023, Powell gave a B -not from C+. Leadership, transparency, market knowledge and communication received solid B, but the economic estimate (from D in 2023). The participants rated Powell in economic and regulatory expertise.
The former Fed chair Ben Bernanke left the office with B’s last year, and Janet Yellen’s final class was a B+.
Policy view
It is believed that the president’s pressure on the Fed’s reduction rate has the opposite effect of some participants.
While 56% say it has no effect on politics, 42% believes that ratio makes the cuts less likely. Only 3% says it makes the outages more likely. No participant foresees a ratio in this meeting, but 27% believes that the FED should be cut.
There may be two oppositions at the meeting because the two governors appointed by Trump support lower rates in July. However, the survey participants see that these deductions are coming, 65% are expected in September and the other before the end of the year. This will reduce the fund rate to approximately 3.9%.
More deductions are estimated for 2026, increasing the average participatory fund rate to 3.5%, but this will remain above the neutral rate of 3.3%.
US President Donald Trump speaks with Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell (R) while visiting the Federal Reserve on Washington DC on July 24, 2025.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images
The uncertainty about the economic impact of tariffs fell from 71% to 62% in June. And 65% awaits a trade agreement from 54% with China. The 51 % majority believes that tariffs will result in only one -time price increases rather than a wider inflation, which is a 8 -point gain from June.
“Trumpian uncertainties on economics and policies are settling on economics and policies,” the Global Economist/Strategist of the Decision Economy. “This is very positive for this descriptive and self -equivalent. But there are still great, great social, political, geopolitical and non -economic uncertainties.”
With less uncertainty, there was a modest increase in economic appearance.
The possibility of a stagnation next year fell from 38% to 38% in June and 53% in May after the President has sharply announced higher “mutual” tariffs. GDP is expected to increase by 1.4% in June, but still in January less optimistic is less than 2.4%.
The appearance remains for recovery with an average 2.2% GDP estimation in 2026 next year.
Problems in the labor market
Unemployment, this year’s 4.1% to 4.4% increased only slightly and 2026 at this level remained stable. However, there are widespread concerns about the slowing of the labor market.
“Employment is not as good as some believe,” Metlife Investment Management Chief Market Strategist Drew T. Matus said, “Employment is not as good as it believes.” He said. “This will provide a significant slowdown in activity as it approaches the end of the year when it is combined with housing problems and ongoing volatility.”
For most participants, employment seems to be the key to whether the FED is in the right place.
“The labor market is slowing down and the housing market is slowing down. As a result, this will force Fed to reduce interest rates.” He said.
However, the National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said, “A relatively balanced labor market, recent increase recently [personal consumption expenditures price index]And the potential of increasing inflation of tariffs in the coming months justifies the cautious speed of the Federal Reserve. Although the uncertainty continues, the economy is expected to grow. “
Despite better growth and less uncertainty, the participants The stock market this year.
The average participant puts the S&P 500 level at the end of the closing on Monday to 6,344. It is estimated that it will rise to 6,936 next year, 9% increase.
However, there is more concern about excessive valuation, because 84% considers stocks as a little or over -valuable in June, from 58% to the highest level of one year.
