Australia politics live: Labor ‘very confident’ that tax changes won’t lift rents by 30%; NDIS reforms to pass parliament today | Australia news
Labor ‘very confident’ tax changes won’t lift rent prices by 30%
Mark Butler says the Labor is still confident of Treasury’s forecasts of the rental market, that showed rents would only increase about $2 per week due to the budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax.
Yesterday several media outlets reported NAB had warned rents could rise up to 30% (but the PM rejected it and told question time the bank had clarified its position that it didn’t provide rental forecasts). Today, the Australian newspaper is reporting that real estate agent Ray White is backing in that figure.
Speaking to ABC News Breakfast this morning, Butler is asked if Treasury got it wrong – nup, says the health minister:
We’re very confident in our forecast. As Jim Chalmers has said, it’s important to give these sorts of changes some time to settle down … But just think about it logically, James [Glenday]. Remember that the 2.5 million private rental properties in the market that are owned by investors, if they were owned already at budget night and were being negatively geared, that can continue.
Key events
Hastie says fight with One Nation for his seat, ‘dirty and nasty’
The One Nation threat is particularly close to home for Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie, with the right-wing party challenging for his WA seat.
But he tells RN Breakfast, he “loves the pressure”.
Hastie has publicly said he’s had increased security for his home and office following threats to him and his staff, but says this won’t deter him.
I love pressure, Sally. I wouldn’t be in this job if I didn’t. I also love a fight, and I know people like [Hanson’s chief of staff] James Ashby are coming for me. He’s got his orders from above, and I’m going to hold my seat because I believe I’m the best person to deliver for the people of Canning, as I have over the last 11 years. Will it be a tough fight? Absolutely. Is it dirty and nasty? Yes, it is.
Asked whether the Coalition is under more pressure to release policies sooner because of One Nation, Hastie says:
It’s not a thought bubble race on X with Pauline Hanson. We want to make sure that our policies are costed and modelled and are responsible. It’s very easy to get a sugar hit in the headlines, but we’re doing the hard work.
‘No plans to lift the super guarantee’, says Mulino
Daniel Mulino, the financial services minister, says the government has no plans to lift the super guarantee from 12% to 15%. Currently federal public servants – including politicians – receive 15.4% super on top of their wages.
Labor has for a while now had a commitment in its national platform to “set out a pathway to increasing it to 15%”, but they’ve so far made no plans to do so. Wayne Swan was the last treasurer to raise the super guarantee from 9% to 12% over a few years.
Mulino tells ABC RN Breakfast:
There’s no plans to lift the super guarantee. Getting it to 12% was the work of Labor governments over a very long period of time. And I might say, in the face of opposition, it was fought tooth and nail every step of the way by the opposition.
Mulino is addressing the National Press Club today to announce measures to protect superannuation consumers. Why? He says it came from the collapse of superannuation providers Shield and First Guardian:
The scale of that collapse was shocking. Almost 12,000 Australian individual members of super funds and their families lost large parts, or in some cases, all of their super savings. But what was also increasingly clear was the predatory and inappropriate behaviour which led to those collapses. Lead generators reaching out to these people in unsolicited ways, undertaking highly manipulative interactions to convince them that their super products were not performing well or were inappropriate, and then manipulating them into inappropriate products for them.
‘Collapsing confidence’ in housing market, Wilson says
Tim Wilson has jumped on that reporting around rent increases and says there has been a collapse in confidence since the budget which is hurting renters.
The shadow treasurer tells News24:
We’ve had, since the budget, collapsing confidence, a lack of will to invest in housing that is going to be available for rentals.
We’re seeing a complete disaster in the housing market, and we know that’s only going to do one thing while the government continues to overshoot its migration target, and that is an increase in rents on Australians struggling to save a first home deposit.
‘Stop gaslighting Australians’: O’Neil and Cash clash on rent increases
Shadow attorney-general Michaelia Cash says the housing minister, Clare O’Neil, needs to take some responsibility and “stop gaslighting” the country over rent increases around the country.
There are more reports this morning that real estate agent Ray White has also predicted rents could rise 30%.
O’Neil tells Sunrise the Treasury department forecast rents would increase about $2 a week in response to the budget changes, and then quickly pivots to how bad things have been for renters already.
There is an awful lot that goes into determining rents in Australia, and the thing that Treasury modelled in the context of the budget, what is the isolated effect of what the government actually changed about the housing market. And if I just step back for a second, we’ve got a broken housing system in our country, and it’s the renters of Australia who are bearing the brunt of really 40 years of government’s not doing enough about this problem.
Cash isn’t picking up what O’Neil is putting down:
I think that Clare sadly needs to start taking a bit of responsibility for her housing policy. But also, Clare, stop gaslighting Australians, stop gaslighting the mum and dads who are currently watching this show and feeling the impact of your toxic housing taxes … She can sit on your show and defend her policies, but the evidence on the ground, the evidence from the experts, is that Labor’s toxic housing taxes are smashing the market.
‘Up to them to explain’: Queensland lags on Thriving Kids
Jenny McAllister, the NDIS minister, is on ABC AM and says – like Butler – that no one will “fall between two stools” due to the NDIS reforms.
But at the same time, she acknowledges that Queensland isn’t progressing with implementing Thriving Kids and that it’s “up to them to explain” why.
Host, Melissa Clarke, asks how the government can say no one will fall through the cracks while acknowledging that Queensland isn’t doing what it has been told to do.
A brief explainer here – Thriving Kids is for children aged eight and under with developmental delays or autism who require low-to-moderate support needs. They’re currently a significant cohort of the NDIS, and the programs which will be jointly funded by the commonwealth and states will help reduce NDIS numbers.
McAllister doesn’t actually say what the government will do to ensure Queensland kids are still adequately supported:
Disability supports have always been a shared responsibility by the states and territories and the commonwealth. Disability ministers are clear about their desire to co-govern the scheme and to co-govern disability supports. That has always been true for disability, for disability policy and program, continues to be the case, and we work with the states and territories to make sure that we have got a strong disability ecosystem that can support all people with disability across the community.
‘We are pleased’ says Henderson on gambling bill deal
Mark Butler is not the only happy politician this morning, shadow communications minister Sarah Henderson is also giving herself a pat on the back after securing a deal with Labor to tackle gambling advertising.
That doesn’t mean people even in her own tent are pleased, two MPs yesterday made the decision to cross the floor because they believe the bill doesn’t go far enough. One of them, Nationals MP, Pat Conaghan, said the Coalition and government were “weak” for not implementing the recommendations of the 2023 Murphy report.
Henderson tells ABC RN Breakfast that the bill gets the “balance right”.
We made a very significant difference in these amendments, and we think we’ve got the balance right. But of course, we’ve also announced that, there will be, one of the amendments will provide for a statutory review in three years. So if the gambling companies think that they can get away with continuing improper conduct, if the broadcasters don’t comply, if something is not working, the government, and hopefully it will be our government in three years’ time, will be held to account … we mustn’t forget we don’t want to punish the vast majority of Australians who love a bet, who don’t have a gambling problem.
Just a little reminder here for the millionth time – that these laws were never about stopping people being able to gamble, it was about tackling all of the ads and inducements encouraging them to gamble.
Butler ‘very confident’ Thriving Kids will be rolled out in time for NDIS changes
Mark Butler must be feeling pretty damn good this morning because he’s also “very confident” that Thriving Kids will be up and running in all states and territories by the time the NDIS legislated changes take effect at the beginning of 2028.
Butler says every state and territory bar Queensland have got implementation plans in place and will start ramping up their Thriving Kids services from October this year.
I’m very confident. States recognise the importance of this. They’ve got their implementation plans ready from 1 October. Those services will start to roll out. They’re not new concepts. These are the sorts of services that we had in place for many decades before the NDIS was created.
I’m very confident about it. I made clear to parents that there is no way that any government will let their children, their precious children, slip between two stools, or go without supports.
Labor ‘very confident’ tax changes won’t lift rent prices by 30%
Mark Butler says the Labor is still confident of Treasury’s forecasts of the rental market, that showed rents would only increase about $2 per week due to the budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax.
Yesterday several media outlets reported NAB had warned rents could rise up to 30% (but the PM rejected it and told question time the bank had clarified its position that it didn’t provide rental forecasts). Today, the Australian newspaper is reporting that real estate agent Ray White is backing in that figure.
Speaking to ABC News Breakfast this morning, Butler is asked if Treasury got it wrong – nup, says the health minister:
We’re very confident in our forecast. As Jim Chalmers has said, it’s important to give these sorts of changes some time to settle down … But just think about it logically, James [Glenday]. Remember that the 2.5 million private rental properties in the market that are owned by investors, if they were owned already at budget night and were being negatively geared, that can continue.
Krishani Dhanji
Good morning, Krishani Dhanji with you here, thanks to Martin Farrer for getting us started.
It has been a big 24 hours for the government, having secured support for its gambling bill and, as Martin brought you a moment ago, passing the NDIS reforms with the Coalition through the Senate.
The health and NDIS minister, Mark Butler is doing the morning media rounds to celebrate – we’ll be following along closely.
Let’s get stuck in!
Pauline Hanson is targeting superannuation. Should it be easier to access your savings?
The debate over whether people should be allowed easier early access to their super balances to make ends meet continues to rage, with Pauline Hanson accusing Jim Chalmers of being “full of shit”.
She wants to let people take more of their cash and said the treasurer was misrepresenting her as being in favour of scrapping the whole scheme.
Our economics editor Patrick Commins has been looking at whether allowing earlier access would work and if it’s a good idea.
NDIS bill passes Senate after Labor deal with Coalition
The government’s controversial NDIS bill will pass the lower house today after it went through the Senate last night with “substantial” amendments (63 in total) after a deal between Labor and the Coalition. We’ll have the latest reaction soon, but in the meantime you can catch up on how the vote unfolded:
Welcome
Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the top overnight stories and then it’ll be Krishani Dhanji with the main action.
The government’s controversial NDIS bill will pass the lower house today after it went through the Senate last night. The health minister, Mark Butler, said 63 government amendments across both houses were introduced to win the Coalition’s support for the government’s changes, aimed at reining in spending.
There will doubtless be more to come on this today, so stay tuned.
