Australia’s housing affordability expected to worsen and homelessness soar under fossil-fuelled future | Housing
Global warming could worsen housing affordability, increase rents and quadruple homelessness within a decade without fairer housing policies and actions to reduce emissions, new research has found.
House prices and rents in Australia are affected by many complex factors, from incomes to mortgage rates, insurance premiums, available land and population.
University of Sydney researchers modeled the housing market system using two decades of public data and tested its responses under different climate scenarios, publishing their results at: cities.
They found that climate change affects housing and rent affordability in both high and low emissions scenarios, but that in a fossil-fuel future, it is vulnerable households that are worst hit.
In a high-emission future, homelessness could be four times higher by 2036 as homes become more expensive and rents rise relative to income.
The scenarios were based on five plausible social and economic pathways developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The low emissions scenario describes a future where collective action leads to a more sustainable future consistent with the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming below 2°C and limiting the increase to 1.5°C, while fossil fuel resources continue to be exploited under the high emissions pathway.
Australia, along with other countries, has committed to the Paris Agreement and has set targets to reduce emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, to 62-70% by 2035, and to “net zero” by 2050.
Associate Professor Nader Naderpajouh of the University of Sydney said the effects of global warming on housing were “very unequal” and particularly affected tenants and people experiencing homelessness.
He said climate change hasn’t figured prominently in housing policy discussions, but it should. “We show that climate change has an impact, and that impact is very different. [it] It increases the gap.”
“We can’t solve the housing system with one blanket policy,” he said. Policies or interventions should prioritize and tailor support for low-income tenants and address homelessness.
Naderpajouh said the federal budget’s investment in social housing for more than 4,000 young people was an example of targeted action, but said a “drastic increase” in social housing was needed.
He said it was important to measure progress as well as ensuring the homes delivered were of high quality and safe.
“The housing market for Australians is already under pressure and we see social inequalities set to worsen in the future. need “Designing more equitable housing policies, or that’s the direction we’re moving toward,” said Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh, the paper’s lead author.
“Our findings suggest that new housing policies need to undergo climate change simulations to ensure they do not deepen inequality.”
Climate Council councilor economist Nicki Hutley said climate change “must be front and centre” for housing policy, both in reducing emissions through energy efficiency and better building standards, and in terms of the resilience of homes, livelihoods and communities to extreme weather.
The federal government’s latest national climate risk assessment “reveals some very disturbing facts about the level of risk to which our homes are exposed,” Hutley said.
Among the many findings of the risk assessment, it was stated that 10 per cent of housing will be located in areas considered very high risk by 2030 and that long-standing inequalities are being exacerbated by the climate crisis.
Hutley said the housing and tax changes in the budget show the federal government can act on issues beyond an election cycle.
“We need them to take the same approach to climate change.”
