Bangladesh deal may weigh on earnings
But timid investors who paid a premium for this growth story may see a short-term snag due to uncertainty around the company’s lucrative power supply deal to Bangladesh.
While the company reports earnings on Thursday, revenues are expected to increase marginally. ₹13,848 crore ₹13,434 crore in last year’s quarter, according to the consensus estimate of three analysts surveyed. Bloomberg. Profit is expected to increase by 5 percent ₹Analysts estimated 3,075 crore.
The muted earnings growth forecast was attributed to a similar increase in thermal energy demand during this period.
The most important points investors should pay attention to in the company’s 3Q26 earnings are:
bangladesh salient
Adani Power’s 1,600-megawatt ultra-supercritical plant at Godda in Jharkhand supplies power exclusively to the Bangladesh grid. The transaction, which brought rich margins to the company, came under scrutiny after an influential national review committee (NRC) in Bangladesh analyzed the country’s severely bleeding power sector.
The NRC concluded that the national electricity distributor was purchasing more electricity than the country needed and doing so at higher prices from private players, particularly Adani Power. He recommended renegotiating these agreements, which jeopardizes Adani’s agreement with the ousted government of Sheikh Hasina in 2017.
The company supplies electricity to the neighboring country at $0.135 per unit ( ₹12.3), according to the NRC’s January 20 report. In contrast, Adani Power sells electricity in the commercial market in India on average. ₹5.37 per unit in the first six months of FY26, according to an October 2025 investor presentation.
The company compensates ₹Revenue of 8,300 crore and above per year ₹Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) from the deal is 4,800 crore, as disclosed by the management in an analyst call on May 1, 2025. This accounts for more than 14% of the company’s FY25 revenue and almost a fifth of its EBITDA in that financial year, making the deal vital for the company.
“Cash flow from the 1.6 gigawatt Godda plant in Bangladesh remains subject to payment delays, the risk of power purchase agreement (PPA) renegotiation, and legal uncertainty following a review by the Bangladesh high court,” brokerage firm JM Financial said in a Jan. 2 report.
But the company has a trick up its sleeve: a close connection to the Indian grid. The company has a backup plan to sell the electricity in India in case the contract with the Bangladesh government expires. However, this is not an ideal scenario because, as seen above, the energy will be sold at a much lower price in the spot market in India. There are also significant pending payments from the Bangladesh Energy Development Board, which could further impact the company’s cash flows.
Capacity expansion and grid connection
Adani Power is the fastest growing coal-based independent power producer in the country. It plans to increase its capacity from 18.2 GW currently to 41.9 GW by 2032. This will make it the largest producer of thermal energy in the country.
With the share of variable renewable energy increasing in India’s grid, the government is working to rapidly expand fixed thermal energy capacity to meet baseloads. The country announced a need for 80 GW of additional thermal energy capacity by FY32; Adani Power has already secured 23.7 GW of this capacity, giving it significant growth potential.
Other major players expanding in thermal energy are state-owned NTPC Ltd and, to a lesser extent, JSW Energy Ltd and Torrent Power Ltd.
“Adani Power was the first company to see the indispensability of thermal energy in India’s growth story, while competitors in many sectors have started shifting towards thermal energy due to the global shift to renewable energy sources,” analysts at JM Financial said. he said.
The company gradually increased capacity and became the country’s largest private sector thermal energy producer, with capacity exceeding 18 GW, thanks to organic growth (10.8 GW) and a series of distressed asset acquisitions (7.3 GW).
However, it will be important to implement new capacities. While the company has pre-ordered critical equipment for its new facilities, supplier delays due to the global rush to increase thermal energy capacity could also push back the company’s plans.
Investors will carefully monitor updates and management outlook on this matter. “Adani Power is pursuing aggressive capacity expansion despite its strong track record and land availability, exposing it to risks of time and cost overruns, financing pressure and implementation disruptions,” JM Financial analysts wrote.
