Burnham needed to distance himself from Starmer’s ‘toxic’ Labour to boost hopes of by-election win, allies say

Andy Burnham has been forced to be open about his leadership ambitions as Sir Keir Starmer’s outlook on Labour’s doorstep has become so “toxic” that his allies say the Makerfield by-election is still “too close”.

After weeks of speculation, the mayor of Greater Manchester appeared on the BBC Question Time byelection special on Thursday night to finally confirm that he would stand to replace Sir Keir as Labor leader and prime minister if voters in Makerfield send him back to Westminster when they go to the polls later this month.

While new polls suggest Mr Burnham has pulled away from his chief rival for the seat, Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, his allies fear the Manchester mayor’s position as a Labor candidate could still leave him at risk of defeat given the party’s low poll scores.

An ally suggested Mr Burnham’s response to his leadership ambitions was a deliberate strategy to distance himself from the current Labor leadership and give himself the best chance of winning the by-election.

The MP said: “Focus groups show there is nothing less that would reduce the toxicity of the Labor brand. ‘Changing the Workforce’ is not clear enough. It was.”

Referring to what people in Makerfield said on the doorstep, the MP added: “The Labor brand is not only bad, it is toxic.

“Andy’s not toxic. The workmanship is. That’s the only reason we crossed the line.”

Another ally, Liverpool Riverside MP Kim Johnson, who was at Mr Burnham’s byelection campaign launch and will return next week, said: “The idea of ​​getting rid of Starmer would benefit him. [Burnham].”

York Central MP Rachael Maskell, who has been to the constituency four times, said: “Given that Andy will always see the country through his experience of growing up and living in the area and then representing Makerfield, there is so much support for him. The local community has a real opportunity to help shape the future and I know Andy is keen to take more power from Westminster, so voting for him will be their best chance of sweeping the change they want to see.”

Another Labor MP who was recently campaigning for the seat added: “Andy’s promise to run for the leadership will motivate a lot of people given Starmer’s lack of popularity!”

This development comes at a time when uneasiness continues in the constituency regarding the outcome of the vote held on 18 June; Labor figures have conceded that attacks on Reform candidate Robert Kenyon’s colorful social media history and past misogyny have not shifted the dial in the constituency.

A Labor MP said: “It’s as if we haven’t learned the lessons of Brexit a decade ago. ‘Project mockery’ about local man gets good national media coverage but has little impact at Makerfield, where people know him [Kenyon].”

Polls suggest Mr Burnham may be drifting away from rival

A poll by Survation immediately after the Question Time debate showed Mr Burnham with a 10-point lead over Mr Kenyon, but his slim lead led Labor to hope Rupert Lowe’s rival party, Restore Britain, would win enough votes from Reform to split the right-wing vote.

The Survation poll shows Restore candidate Rebecca Shepherd, who was controversially excluded from the BBC Question Time panel, on 8 per cent.

A Labor source said: “Renewal could make the difference in this by-election. The numbers are very tight. Too close to really tell.”

A veteran Reform campaigner who is in the by-election campaign believes Mr Kenyon’s talk of him being the “local guy who knows everyone” means the contest is “very close”.

Sources in both parties acknowledged that Reform would easily win the seat if Mr Burnham was not Labour’s candidate. There are no hard figures on how parties fared in Makewrfield during local elections, but Mr Farage’s party won 24 of 25 seats on Wigan Council (including two wards in Ashton-in-Makefield) last month.

The Reform insider noted: “Robert is warmly welcomed wherever he goes. The fact that this is a local man who wants to represent his hometown versus a man who wants to use his hometown to become prime minister plays well for us.”

Issues such as Mr Farage’s push for “two-tier” policing in the wake of the Henry Nowak case and the mishandling of this by police who thought they had arrested the 18-year-old over false allegations of racism as he bled to death are also at play.

The source said: “This reflects a deeper sense of how communities like Makerfield are overlooked and white working-class people are discriminated against. Immigration is a big issue for us too.”

Sir Keir, meanwhile, defiantly resisted the ambitions of Mr Burnham and other candidates.

Responding to Mr Burnham’s statement on Thursday night, a Downing Street spokesman said: “With Keir Starmer’s leadership, this Labor government is supporting people struggling with the high cost of living, cutting NHS waiting lists, restoring control of our borders and lifting half a million children out of poverty.

“The country expects us to focus on governance and delivering change for hard-working people, not to be distracted by Westminster debates.

“Labour is in the process of challenging a leader and this has not yet been triggered. The Prime Minister will not step back from the task he was given just two years ago to build a stronger, fairer Britain.”