Betting Markets Back BJP in Bengal, DMK in Tamil Nadu

Hyderabad: The underground betting market seems to have decided that the BJP will win the knife-edge battle against the Trinamul Congress in West Bengal. Separate bets are placed on which party will win how many seats.

On Sunday, even after the results were declared, a textile trader from Ghansi Bazaar, which has invested heavily in the rise of saffron, said: “BJP will leave Mamata behind this time; now it is Modi’s turn.”

In Hyderabad’s Old City, for a Rs.100 bet on the BJP in Bengal, punters will win Rs.140-150 (the 1.4-1.5x payout ratio reflects the 2-3 times higher betting volume of the BJP against the TMC). A punter who bets Rs.100 on TMC to win will get Rs.180-Rs.200 (odds of 1.8-2x) if the party retains strength as fewer punters chase the underdog.

A Begum Bazaar trader admitted: “I put Rs.100 on BJP; easy profit of Rs.45-Rs.50 if they cross 150 seats. TMC is feeling riskier now.”

From Rajasthan’s Phalodi satta market to the bustling streets of Begum Bazaar, Feelkhana, Ghansi Bazaar and Patel Market in Hyderabad, traders are viewing the election results in five states as a high-stakes game of speculation. From seat-based predictions to party victory odds, this underground economy depends on who forms the next governments.

Phalodi’s influential bookmakers and offshore platforms – which were attracting heavy bets from Hyderabad – were pricing West Bengal as the closest fight among the five states.

Crypto platforms and offshore sites are amplifying the action with mule UPI accounts that transfer bets from small bets to lakhs. Phalodi’s predictions simply monitor the flow of money and the confidence of the bettor.

In Tamil Nadu’s 234-seat contest, bookmakers were expecting a hung Assembly rather than a DMK sweep. Many were betting on the number of seats of actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK); Will it reach 40-50 seats for the leadership with AIADMK support or will it fall below 30?

“Vijay was drawing crowds. I’m betting 45 seats for TVK in a fractured Assembly – no clean sweep for DMK,” said a trader from Feelkhana. The odds gave DMK a slight advantage – a Rs.100 bet would pay Rs.120-Rs.130 and a hung Assembly with the Vijay-AIADMK combination coming to play paying 2-2.5x (Rs.200-Rs.250 returns). 100 Rupees.

According to them, Kerala was heading towards a Congress-led UDF victory, with bookmakers giving the Opposition formation a narrow edge over the LDF. “UDF looks solid – maybe 70-75 seats,” said a trader in the 140-seat House, betting Rs.100 for payout of Rs.130-Rs.140 (1.3-1.4x odds).

Assam, meanwhile, promised a comfortable win under the BJP leadership and was considered a “safe bet” with stable odds – a 100-rupee bet would return 110 rupees-120 rupees (1.1-1.2x) and attract high volumes due to low risk.

Hyderabad’s bookmakers who trade textiles, metals and commodities read these signals like market trends. “For us, it is like any other market; there is a price, there is risk and there is a chance of making a profit. Be it gold, cotton or elections, the habit of betting is common,” said a trader from Begum Bazaar.