Blow after blow to the power of Iran and its proxy militias set the stage for US-Israel attacks
In mounting a comprehensive military response to Hamas’ brutal attack on October 7, 2023, Israel aimed to: Punch after punch to Iran’s powerThe militant group’s long-time sponsor and other proxies and allies in the region.
The result has been a rapid and systematic deterioration of Iran’s influence in the Middle East over the past 2.5 years. Devastating attacks on Iran this weekend by the USA and Israel.
“The events of October 7 were definitely a turning point in this long conflict between Iran and Israel,” said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, an expert on Iranian politics at the Missouri University of Science and Technology. “I think this provides the argument or justification for Israel to strike a strong blow.”
The most devastating blow yet came from the President this weekend Donald Trump Israeli leaders launched a wave of attacks on Iran. Murder of Iran’s religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and causing widespread destruction. But the war, although still in its infancy, is part of much longer events that have seriously weakened Iran, Hezbollah and other proxy militias and upset the political balance in the region.
“This is a very bloody, very violent but transformative moment that the Middle East is experiencing,” said Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow focusing on the Middle East at British think tank Chatham House. “We don’t know where this will end.”
The war in Gaza became a source
Damage to Iran’s power war in GazaIsraeli forces pursued Hamas after the militants killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages in the October 7 attacks. Israel has since killed more than 72,000 Palestinians in Gaza, about half of them women and children, according to the Health Ministry, which is affiliated with the Hamas government in Gaza and does not distinguish between militants and civilians.
However, the conflict quickly expanded to include other groups in the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance.
In Lebanon, the powerful militant group Hezbollah has long been seen as Iran’s first line of defense in the event of war with Israel. It was believed to have around 150,000 rockets and missiles, and the group’s former leader said Hassan Nasrallah he once boasted of having 100,000 warriors.
After October 7, the group launched rockets from the border into Israel to help its ally Hamas. This led to Israeli airstrikes and bombardment, and the conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the autumn of 2024.
Israel inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah, killing Nasrallah and other senior leaders and destroying much of the militant group’s arsenal, before a US-negotiated ceasefire officially halted that conflict last November. Israel continues to occupy parts of Southern Lebanon. almost daily air strikes.
Hezbollah further weakened after rebels topple regime of key ally, Syrian President Bashar AssadCutting off the main supply route for Iranian weapons.
of Yemen Houthi rebels are also sponsored by IranIt joined the expanding conflict by firing rockets at ships in the Red Sea and targeting Israel. US warships and the Israeli army also returned fire.
Israel has left the status quo behind
As the conflict expanded, Iranian leaders and their proxies failed to realize that Israel was abandoning the long-standing status quo and seeking to create fundamental change, Mansour said.
Casualties to Iran increased last June when Israel launched a surprise attack aimed at destroying much of Tehran. Rapidly advancing nuclear program Iran and the USA were negotiating for a nuclear deal. The ensuing 12-day war included bomb attacks on Iran’s energy industry and the Defense Ministry headquarters.
Iran’s weakened proxy groups have largely remained on the sidelines as their sponsors came under direct attack last year. So far they have done the same in the new war.
For Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups, “it’s more about survival,” Mansour said. He noted that over time the Axis became less driven by top-down orders from Iran and the groups became more autonomous. “And to them, survival is based on calculations that are not related to Iran’s survival.”
Since Israel and the United States launched an attack on Iran on Saturday, Tehran’s allies and proxies in the region have had a minimal role in the response.
Hezbollah appeared to have made the change early Monday, even though it was under great pressure from Lebanese officials not to enter the fray in defense of Iran for fear of another damaging war in Lebanon.
Hezbollah made statements condemning US-Israeli attacks on Iran and mourning the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He then hinted that he might get involved. He crossed the border and fired missiles early on Monday. Israel immediately retaliated by launching an attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs. This was the first time in more than a year that Hezbollah claimed to have launched an attack against Israel.
Hezbollah said in a statement that the attacks were carried out in retaliation for the killing of Khamenei and “repeated Israeli attacks”.
How might other proxy groups respond?
It remains to be seen how other proxy groups may react to Khamenei’s death. Charles Lister, a senior researcher at the Middle East Institute, said Israel’s actions since 2023 could pause such groups.
“Previous conflicts since October 7 appear to have underscored the existential risk of making yourself a target,” Lister said in an email responding to questions from The Associated Press.
In Iraq, a coalition of Iran-backed militias calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed responsibility for several drone strikes targeting US bases in Erbil, the capital of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in the country’s north. The extent of damage caused by the attacks is not yet clear. However, there were widespread power outages in the Kurdish region after a major gas field that provides most of the region’s electricity ceased operations due to security concerns.
Two officials from different Iran-backed militias in Iraq told the AP that a meeting was held two months ago between Iranian officials and allied Iraqi militias to make plans for a response if Iran were attacked, including the distribution of missions among Iraqi armed groups.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. One of the officials said it was decided that the response would target US forces and interests in Iraq’s semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region and neighboring Jordan.
Boroujerdi said there is often a misperception that Iran gives orders to its proxy militant groups and they all fall in line. But the independent decisions the groups have taken so far to stay out of conflict are a sign of the overall weakening of the Iranian network.
“The dominoes started to fall with the events of October 7,” Boroujerdi said. “Note everything that has changed in terms of the balance of power since then.”
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Associated Press writer Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad contributed to this report.
