Here are the 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market in the week ahead
The new year on Wall Street officially kicks into high gear with three things we’ll be watching this week. Financial firms are heralding the start of earnings season, the government is releasing key inflation data, and JPMorgan is holding a major healthcare conference. 1. Club earnings: Wells Fargo released fourth-quarter 2025 numbers before the opening bell on Wednesday. Analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) to be $1.67 and revenue to be $21.65 billion, according to LSEG. While the reported results are important, management’s outlook for 2026 will likely determine how the stock reacts. The Federal Reserve’s criminal asset ceiling for past crimes was lifted in June; thus, 2026 will represent the first full year in which management will be able to compete on a level playing field in its core lending operations and other lines of business, such as investment banking. WFC 1Y Mountain Wells Fargo 1 year Of our three financial institutions for reporting, Wells Fargo has the most consumer appeal and should provide the best read on how Americans feel about the economy. Last month, at the annual Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference, Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf said: “The consumer continues to spend. Defaults are probably slightly better than they were last time we spoke or last time we made this public. Deposit balances are strong. Investment balances are strong.” So the real question is; Has anything changed since then? Investors also want to know where management thinks interest rates will go this year. Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chairman ends in May. President Donald Trump has made no secret that he thinks Powell should cut interest rates more aggressively. The Fed cut interest rates by three-quarters last year and a full point in 2025. We expect Trump’s decision to replace Powell comes into office with the authority to cut interest rates even further. GS 1Y Mount Goldman Sachs 1-year Goldman Sachs reports quarterly results on Thursday morning. In addition to the headline numbers, we want to know how management sees the trajectory for 2026 and, in particular, whether deals on Wall Street can continue the strength of last year. Jim Cramer said last week that the Trump administration’s stance on antitrust issues and business regulations bodes well for investment banks like Goldman Sachs, which charge fees for advising on initial public offerings as well as mergers and acquisitions. Indeed, a strengthening investment banking environment with an increased likelihood of large-scale mergers and acquisitions being approved by regulators and a more welcoming environment for IPOs is why we are replacing Morgan Stanley with Goldman Sachs after the 2024 presidential election. This week we learned that Apple Card will be moving from Goldman Sachs to JPMorgan. Following the announcement, Goldman said it expected a 46 cent gain in EPS in the fourth quarter. As of Friday, the analyst consensus estimate compiled by LSEG shows Goldman’s Q4 earnings per share of $11.57 and revenue of $14.11 billion. We’ll have to see if the analysts update their EPS estimates to account for earnings, and if Goldman notes this in the statement. BLK 1Y Mount BlackRock 1-year BlackRock also reports fourth-quarter earnings before the opening bell on Thursday. Analysts expect EPS to be $12.31 per share on revenue of $6.74 billion, according to LSEG. On January 5, we reduced our BlackRock position after a strong start to the year. However, we believe BlackRock shares can continue to advance as the company evolves into a one-stop asset manager, with offerings extending beyond publicly traded stocks and bonds to cryptocurrencies, private credit and infrastructure funds. Beyond the headline figures, the issues to consider will be net inflows and wage increases. 2. Inflation data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its latest monthly reports on consumer prices on Tuesday morning and producer prices on Wednesday morning. December’s CPI, or consumer price index, will attract the most attention. Economists expect a 2.7% annual increase in both headline CPI and core interest rates excluding food and energy. These readings will be roughly in line with gains in the previous period. The Fed is trying to reduce inflation to 2 percent. Following December’s meeting and joint decision to cut rates, some policymakers favor cuts to prevent further weakness in the labor market, while others think the easing has gone far enough and threatens to worsen inflation. “We’re well positioned to wait and see how the economy develops,” Powell said at the post-meeting news conference. On Friday, the BLS’ December employment report showed moderate job growth, supporting the “more cuts” camp. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Fed’s further interest rate cuts were “the only missing ingredient” for a stronger economy. Trump has not yet announced who will replace Powell. “We’ll see what the president thinks about where I should be,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, one of the finalists, told CNBC on Friday. 3. Healthcare conference: JPMorgan’s annual Healthcare Conference kicks off in San Francisco on Monday, and Jim will be there to speak and interview more than a dozen top executives, from the biggest names in pharmaceuticals to biotech. While we’re interested to hear what club holdings Eli Lilly, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Danaher have to say, updates from competitors and others will help shape our thinking about the healthcare industry as we continue to develop our 2026 world view, a critical investment concept when it comes to top-down analysis. Bristol Myers will speak at the conference on Monday at 10:30. Danaher, which also tends to announce Q4 results the night before its presentation at this conference, will speak Tuesday at 2:15 p.m. ET. Eli Lilly will present on Tuesday at 5:15 PM ET. All three CEOs will head to the “Crazy Money” set throughout the week to talk with Jim about their plans for the new year and beyond. Next week Monday, January 12 JPMorgan Healthcare Conference begins Tuesday, January 13 Before the earnings bell: JPMorgan (JPM), Delta (DAL), Bank of NY (BK) 8:30 a.m. ET: Consumer price index (December) Wednesday, January 14 Before the bell: Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) 8:30 a.m. ET: Producer price index (December) 10:00 a.m. ET: Existing home sales (December) Thursday, January 15 Before the bell: Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Morgan Stanley (MS) 8:30 AM ET: Weekly jobless claims 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales (December) 8:30 AM ET: Philly Fed index (January) Friday, January 16 Before the bell: Regions Financial (RF), State Street (STT), PNC Financial (PNC), M & T Bank (MTB) 9:15 AM ET: Industrial production and capacity utilization (December) (See here for a complete list of stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) By subscribing to the CNBC Investment Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before you Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trading alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable foundation’s portfolio. If Jim talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trading alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTMENT CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH THE DISCLAIMERS. NO CIVIL OBLIGATIONS OR DUTIES EXIST OR SHALL BE RESULTING FROM YOUR RECEIVING ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTMENT CLUB. NO SPECIFIC RESULT OR PROFIT CAN BE GUARANTEED.
