Burnham blocked but Rayner’s returning: Why Starmer cannot shake the leadership speculation
A.When Sir Keir Starmer wearily boarded a flight to Beijing on Tuesday evening, he may have taken some solace in the fact that the leadership ambitions of one of his key rivals have been thwarted, at least for now.
While the full ramifications of his decision to block Andy Burnham from standing in the Denton and Gorton by-election are yet to be fully revealed, Sir Keir has, for now, personally ensured the Greater Manchester mayor does not pose such an immediate threat to his leadership.
However, somewhat like a game of whack-a-mole, as one leadership challenger leaves, another re-emerges.
Minutes before Sir Keir’s departure, reports emerged that former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner had declared that she was “not dead yet”, effectively planting the flag for the left’s leadership candidate this week.
To some, this may come as a surprise for a politician who was forced to resign from the cabinet just a few months ago for failing to pay a £30,000 tax bill for stamp duty on his Brighton flat. Often such scandals are fatal to political careers or require long periods of reflection in the desert.
But that doesn’t seem to be the case for the former deputy prime minister.
This was a point emphasized Independent by Ms Rayner’s friends and allies at a Trades Union Congress meeting in Brighton last September, less than 48 hours after her departure.
“He will come back sooner or later. For some politicians, normal rules do not apply,” they said.
But the reason for his return has less to do with Ms. Rayner’s merits than with the shortcomings of others, especially the prime minister.
After almost 20 months of dire headlines, dismal poll numbers, 13 U-turns, unpopular policies and a government that looks chaotic and directionless, a growing number of Labor MPs want a change at the top.
There is a growing desire for what one Labor MP described as “ABS” (anyone but Starmer).
And typically, in these situations, they look for something different than what they have.
Tory psychodramas are a good example of this. When Theresa May was ousted, the party opted for charisma with Boris Johnson. After the “excitement” of Johnson and Liz Truss’ premierships, they turned to a dull managership with Rishi Sunak.
Now Sir Keir’s stodgy managerialism is what Labor MPs and many members want to change. So essentially, they are looking for politicians with personality and charisma to replace them.
Labor MPs look to Nigel Farage for Reform and Zack Polanski for the Greens and see two leaders with big charismatic personalities riding high in the polls.
Certainly a big personality, it’s no surprise that Ms Rayner was one of the pioneers, along with other charismatic figures such as Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood and Mr Burnham.
Our hope is that the personality will come out ahead in the polls, but with Burnham out of the race for now, MPs need alternatives. Mr Streeting and Ms Mahmood are seen as too right-wing for many tastes in the Labor Party, which brings them to the resurgent Ms Rayner.
While some thought he was “tainted” by trying to prevent an end to the two-child allowance limit and cuts to benefits as a minister, he would argue that he had fought against such things behind the scenes but was bound by collective responsibility.
It may well be that his only serious rival on the left is energy minister and former leader Ed Miliband.
But if there is to be a coup, Labor MPs need a good idea of who and what to replace Starmer with. If they turn to Rayner, it will be primarily because of his personality and the hope that he can deliver the soft-left agenda the party desires.
