Burnham-led Labour could damage Green Party’s poll surge, experts say
Pollsters have predicted that Andy Burnham’s arrival as Labor leader could deal a significant blow to the Green Party’s recent surge in support, with the new prime minister winning back left-wing voters who abandoned the party under Sir Keir Starmer.
But they warn that Zack Polanski’s party “will not disappear as a threat to Labor” until Mr Burnham shows his government can and does improve people’s lives.
His supporters hope Mr Burnham, who is ideologically more left-wing than Sir Keir, can help stem the tide of enthusiasm for the Greens, whose party has surged at the polls in recent months and caused a surprise upset by defeating Labor and Reform UK in the Gorton and Denton byelections.
Even before taking over, Mr Burnham changed Labor’s stance on a number of issues likely to appeal to new Green voters, including apologizing for his party’s actions on Gaza.
A YouGov poll, conducted a week after Keir Starmer announced he would resign, paving the way for Mr Burnham to take over, showed Labor ahead by two points, with the Greens the same length behind.
Julian Gallie, head of research at polling firm Merlin Strategy, said Mr Burnham posed “a major threat to the Greens’ recent success”.
“Burnham gives the government the opportunity to reset the agenda and make a case against voters who stopped listening to Keir Starmer,” he said.
“We have already seen him make moves to engage directly with Labor voters who are going for the Greens.
“These interventions remove some of the key barriers to Green voters considering returning to Labour. But without an improvement in the cost of living, the Greens will no longer be a threat to Labour.”
Pollster and peer Lord Hayward said Labor under Burnham would “take some disappointed Labor voters out of the potential Green pool”.
But he warned Mr Burnham “needs to prove his competence (in government) to woo more voters flirting with the Greens without being drawn to Reform at the other end of the political spectrum. That’s what most voters are looking for alongside and even ahead of policies.”
But Professor John Curtice was more cautious, saying it was too early to tell the impact of Burnham’s premiership.
He said Labor saw a 2 to 3 percentage point increase immediately following Starmer’s resignation, but that now appears to have disappeared. Now we wait to see whether the situation will improve with the arrival of Burnham or if it will go even further.
“If it does, it is more likely to hit the Greens than Reform, although support for Reform has already waned following Farage’s byelection decision.”
“There are so many different moving parts right now,” he added.
