Bushfires: the government stats which shroud our peril.  

The cycle around this month’s devastating bushfires in Victoria has now become a bureaucratic labyrinth of “lies and statistics”. Andrew Gardiner reports.

As Victorian bushfires burned an area almost twice the size of the ACT this month, locals in badly parched Alexandra, northeast of Melbourne, were out for blood. And they drew political blood. Prime Minister Jacinta Allan inadvertently chose the town for her post-inferno press conference and broke into her own “Scott Morrison” building. cobargo before being thrown out the back door to avoid the wrath of the mob.” fire preparation.

“By the (Victorian) State Election in November, 64 per cent of fire trucks will be outdated, dangerous and should be taken off the roads,” United Firemen’s Union (UFU) secretary Peter Marshall said. in question. Marshall’s calm demeanor gave way to Allan’s claim that the state’s emergency services were “well prepared” for this month’s fires. real anger: “He gasses the firefighters… this turn is actually disgusting, actually breathtaking.”

Documents he saw MWM They argue that the “turn” goes much deeper than Marshall’s complaints. Victoria’s Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (DEECA) has been accused of statistical sleight of hand after “immediate suppression” of climate change was deemed acceptable. 80 percent The number of fires in a given financial year.

Nothing to see here… on paper

Agencies including Victoria’s Country Fire Authority (CFA) meet this target line with ease, routinely recording a rapid suppression rate of at least 20%. 90 percent this is ten years. At least on paper, this means:There’s nothing to see hereSue McKinnon, of Friends of Kinglake Forest, said the public narrative belied the full picture MWM.

These agencies’ statistics over three months or a year leave the impression that there is no urgent need for new equipment, research, or personnel, and that the government is doing more than enough to counter the threat. But what happens when there is a sudden increase (like this month)? 200 firesDo you want to stretch staff and resources to breaking point?

breaking point

“If there are a lot of fires going on at the same time, they can’t handle it,” McKinnon said. “Take Longwood (north of Melbourne) to a major fire where it was often fought with outdated equipment and without the advantages of new technology for rapid detection and suppression.”

“So it got out of control, 137,000 hectares burned and one person died.”

The Climate Council says higher temperatures, drier conditions and lightning strikes sometimes occur the fires themselves It will lead to more and more mass fire outbreaks like we have seen this month and previous disasters such as the Black Summer in NSW (2019). These fires can overlap and create massive infernos like Longwood.

Only 10-12 of 200 fires in Victoria this month have been seriously out of control, meaning the number of fires “promptly suppressed” likely meets DEECA’s “acceptable” target. Back in the real world, it’s clear to most what the devastation is at last count. 410,000 hectares and 259 homes statewide. It is evidence of the failure of a broken system.

The statistical escapade doesn’t seem to end here. Allan has long insisted that this year’s Emergency Services Voluntary Fund (ESVF) levy, which the CFA used for the funds, was a “huge boost for new trucks, equipment and technology”.

There is no sign of this “increase” even on paper for more than half of the current fiscal year. On the other hand, UFU’s Marshall predicts an increase in the number of old and broken fire trucks by November this year more than 50 percent More than 18 months.

CFA volunteers told Weekly Times They are short-changed under the new ESVF and earn less than the $1.54 billion tax under the previous $1 billion Fire Services Property Tax.

Budget increase or decrease?

These claims appear to be confirmed by official figures. Late last May, State Finance Minister Jaclyn Symes “signed a government memorandum stating that $312 million of the levy would be used to cover 95 per cent of the CFA’s 2025-26 budget, bringing the total allocation to $328 million,” the regional news outlet reported.

This is $9 million less than CFA’s allocation from the previous year

“Only 20 cents of every dollar Victorians pay (in ESVF) will go to the CFA this financial year,” rural reporter Peter Hunt wrote. But in the immediate aftermath of this month’s fires, CFA’s board and CEO saw fit to announce that its budget had “increased year on year.” $20.3 million more this financial year”.

Who is telling the truth? This mystery could have been solved if the State Government had stopped seemingly to sit CFA’s latest annual report.

NSW and Western Australia

Problems with fire service funding and equipment go far beyond Victoria. In NSW – where truck actually caught fire On my way to a job on the Central Coast last year – last year’s 18.6 million dollar fleet renewal program was deemed inadequate, in the middle of a backlog of broken down vehicles.

“We need to have a plan in place, a properly structured plan where we’re going to replace vehicles. We’ve got to do that, we’ve got to increase that, we’ve got to replace a large portion of the fleet now to make the fleet more reliable,” said Jason Morgan of the Fire Employees Union. Newcastle Herald.

Five new high-tech fire trucks unveiled in WA stripped from the state’s aging fleet after a fire hose stopped working during a fire in the Perth suburb of Welshpool. Investing in trucks with design flaws has drawn criticism from members of the state’s United Professional Fire Fighters Association, who liken it to spending no money on new equipment.

Where are the drones?

McKinnon says government-funded research into new firefighting technology is now gathering dust as Victoria battles what is predicted to happen record levels debt. ANU Senior Lecturer in Environment and Engineering Marta Yebra said drones programmed to detect new fires, delay their descent and alert crews to the exact location of fires were “science, not fiction”.

Critics say the lack of money to mobilize for such research or update truck fleets directly endangers regional and urban Australia during the summer months. “This is criminal negligence,” McKinnon said.

Many Victorians in peril this month attribute their survival (or their homes) to moments of blind luck, such as a life-saving sudden shift in the wind. Critics say adequately equipped emergency services could have saved them from this perilous moment.

It is, of course, a long tradition for politicians and bureaucrats to use “damn lies and statistics” to evade accountability, fend off change, or avoid spending money. But the money CFA volunteers clamor for is saving lives.

You can’t always trust the wind.

MWM It has reached out to CFA, DEECA and other State Government representatives for comment. We had not received any feedback until the time it was published.

An Adelaide-based Media Studies graduate with an MA in Social Policy, I was an editor covering current affairs, local government and sport for a variety of publications before deciding to change careers in 2002.