By-election a test for former premier’s leadership
A by-election in the suburbs will shake up state politics, with the party leader’s position under threat and a once-safe seat in jeopardy.
Voters in North Brisbane-based Stafford go to the polls on Saturday following the sudden death of former independent MP Jimmy Sullivan on April 9.
Mr Sullivan, who had 6.83 per cent of the vote against him in the 2024 election, was expelled from the Labor Party in May 2025 due to legal and medical concerns.
The seat has been held by Labor for most of its history, with Mr Sullivan’s father Terry serving as a member from 2001 to 2006.
But a political expert warned this could change on Saturday, with consequences for David Crisafulli’s ruling LNP government, the Labor opposition and federal politics.
Paul Williams, a political scientist at Griffith University, said he believed Fiona Hammond was increasingly likely to win the LNP seat with a predicted 51-52 per cent vote once the preferences were split.
Conceptually Labor still holds the seat with a two-party preferred margin of 5.3 per cent.
Recent polls have shown the LNP on course for an unexpected and historic victory.
As a move towards a government remaining in office is rare in by-elections, Prof Williams said even a reduction in Labour’s margin would technically be a loss for Labor and former prime minister Steven Miles.
“If they (the LNP) changed it from 55 to 53, that would technically be a loss for Labour,” Prof Williams said.
“They need to win this seat 59-60 and we know that won’t happen.
“If they lose the seat it would be huge. If it was a regional seat maybe, but losing a Labor seat in Brisbane would have very serious consequences.”
He said a loss was likely to be fatal to Mr Miles’ leadership, with shadow treasurer and shadow minister for women Shannon Fentiman best placed to challenge.
Prof Williams also said One Nation had made a mistake by not running candidates in the city seat, where the party has historically struggled to gain traction.
“They couldn’t have won, but six months ago that would have been impossible and now it’s gone from impossible to impossible,” he said.
Where the party had previously expected to get between two and four percent of the vote, it could expect to get between 12 and 20 percent or more on Saturday.
Prof Williams said such a result would almost guarantee the LNP victory at the polls.
He said the Greens’ decision not to allocate preferences would likely only have consequences if it was a very close result.
On Friday, Mr Miles said the by-election was an opportunity for voters in the seat to send a message to the Crisafulli government.
He said the election result would not change either the government or the Labor Party leadership.
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