Chancellor John Healey will be under pressure to deliver for armed forces

When Healey resigned last month he was only offered an extra £13.5bn; This corresponded to a 0.08% increase in the defense budget.

He made clear at the time that this was not enough to keep the country safe and combat growing threats.

Those close to him said the offer actually only amounted to an extra £10bn, with the rest they called the “Treasury Trick”.

Healey’s resignation letter also expressed frustration at the lack of a clear timetable to deliver on the government’s promise to increase the UK’s defense spending to 3% of GDP.

He wanted to achieve that goal by 2030, when many in NATO say the alliance must be ready for conflict.

But under Sir Keir, the 3% commitment in the next parliament remained uncertain. A commitment to increase NATO defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP by 2035 looks even more distant.

Now as Andy Burnham’s chancellor, Healey will be under pressure to put his money where his mouth is.

But as chancellor, he cannot focus only on defence. There will be many competing demands.

The extra expenses he put forward as defense minister are also important. According to Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) calculations, reaching this 3% threshold would require additional income of £17.3bn a year by 2029-30. The overall defense budget will need to be more than £63bn a year and approach £90bn by 2030.

While Healey has advocated for “creative financing options” in the past, any increase in defense spending would increase pressure for tax increases. This may mean he is considering other ways to fund the Department of Defense.

The Liberal Democrats defended defense bonds, but Sir Keir argued it was just another way of borrowing.

But without the extra funding, Healey was clear that Britain’s armed forces would not be prepared to face increasing threats. There was still a £5bn black hole in the revised DIP published after his resignation.

Basic plans to transform the military with drones and uncrewed warships and planes are still not fully funded. Defense chiefs stress the importance of learning lessons from the war in Ukraine. But plans for new air defense systems and long-range weapons remain underfunded.

Now chancellor, Healey will have the opportunity to draw up a plan to increase defense spending to 3% of GDP.

If he stays true to his word, this could only mean positive news for his successor as defense minister.