‘Chicken’s Neck’ attack & broken economy: Tarique Rahman needs to sweeten bitter past
His heroism would be defined less by campaign rhetoric than by geography, history, and the strict constraints of statecraft.
Rahman will be sworn in as the new Prime Minister of Bangladesh today. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla will represent India at the ceremony. According to sources familiar with the matter, he is expected to be accompanied by External Affairs Minister Vikram Misri and Lok Sabha Secretary General Utpal Kumar Singh.
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The BNP’s landslide victory on February 12 ended 18 months of interim rule and returned competitive politics to a country of about 170 million people. However, power changed hands without erasing the past.
In his statement after his victory, Rahman said, “This victory belongs to Bangladesh, it belongs to democracy.” “It belongs to people who desire democracy and sacrifice for it.”
He also set expectations carefully. “We are about to begin our journey in an environment marked by a fragile economy left behind by the authoritarian regime, weakened constitutional and legal institutions, and a deteriorating law and order situation.” This sentence forms the backbone of his prime ministry.
A mandate but not a vacuum
Rahman, 60, party chief and son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and former President Ziaur Rahman, returned to Dhaka in December 2025 after 17 years in exile in Britain. Within weeks, he led his party to win 212 seats in the 300-member Parliament. The opposition bloc led by Jamaat-e-Islami won 77 seats.
Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League was banned from participating in the contest after she was sentenced to death in absentia for crimes against humanity linked to the 2024 crackdown. He currently lives in India.
BNP’s majority in Parliament saves Rahman from the fragility of coalition arithmetic. This does not save it from institutional obscurity.
fragile economy
Inflation in Bangladesh rose to 8.58% in January 2026 due to the impact of food prices, while non-food inflation remained at 8.29%. More than 2.7 million people are unemployed, including approximately 1 million university graduates.
Weak state investment has increased tensions. Bangladesh’s ready-made garment industry, the world’s second largest ready-made garment exporter after China, has experienced turmoil in its supply chain and shaken the confidence of investors.
Rahman outlined a $10 billion social welfare program that prioritizes female heads of households, temporary unemployment benefits for educated youth and expanded support for farmers.
The White House’s announcement to reduce tariffs on Bangladeshi goods from 20 percent to 19 percent and introduce exemptions for some textile products offers marginal relief. It doesn’t change the structural challenge: an economy dependent on clothes, sensitive to global demand and vulnerable to civil unrest.
Young people’s expectations seem high. According to a Bloomberg report, nearly 40 percent of Bangladeshis are under the age of 25. The 2024 uprising was sparked by young people angry at unemployment and the abolition of the job quota system. Transforming the energy of protest into stable governance is more difficult than mobilizing it.
India’s ‘Chicken Neck’ and its security shadow
The ‘Chicken Neck’, also called the Siliguri Corridor, is a thin strip of land in northern Bengal, about 20-22 km wide and about 60 km long at its narrowest point.
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It is the only land connection between mainland India and the northeastern states. From a security and strategic perspective, it serves as a vital lifeline; Its geography is narrow, its consequences are huge.
For India, Bangladesh is not around. The Siliguri Corridor makes stability in Dhaka a strategic imperative. Any hostile attitude or tolerant atmosphere towards rebel groups is reflected throughout this corridor.
History sharpens anxiety.
Between 2001-06, when the BNP ruled as an alliance partner with the Jamaat, Indian rebel groups were operating in Bangladeshi territory. In 2009, former Prime Minister Hasina handed over rebels in the northeast to India, strengthening the security partnership with New Delhi.
Rahman has avoided anti-India rhetoric since Hasina’s ouster.
Analysts in India have suggested that a full BNP majority is easier for New Delhi to manage than a fragile coalition tied to hard-line partners, according to Bloomberg. The test will be practical: cooperation in the fight against terrorism, transit rights in India’s northeast and restriction along the border.
Transit is not symbolic. Past BNP governments rejected India’s demand for land access to the northeastern states through Bangladeshi territory, invoking nationalist arguments.
The Awami League granted the rights of way and Bangladesh enjoyed the royalties. Whether Rahman maintains, readjusts, or restricts these arrangements will signal his strategic orientation.
The red lines of security for India are clear. For Rahman, the calculus is more layered: assert sovereignty without triggering conflict, reassure India without appearing subordinate.
Balancing India, China and Pakistan
Bangladesh’s external balancing act is sharper than before. China is the country’s largest arms supplier and a major investor in infrastructure and energy along the Bay of Bengal. Pakistan has revived defense contacts and direct trade for the first time since the 1971 war.
In the interim, Beijing’s Chief Economic Adviser Muhammad Yunus sparked controversy when he described India’s northeast as “landlocked” and Bangladesh as the “sole guardian of the ocean.”
“You can go anywhere you want from Bangladesh. The ocean is our backyard,” he said, suggesting that Bangladesh could serve as a conduit for China to the east of India.
Bangladesh can benefit from coastal access; He cannot escape India’s proximity. India may worry about being surrounded; It cannot move the Siliguri Corridor.
Rahman framed his approach as an “economy-based foreign policy” that emphasizes mutual trust, respect and benefit, under the “Bangladesh First” doctrine. An economy-centered stance is pragmatic in nature. He argues that engagement with India, China and others will be measured by growth returns rather than ideological affinity.
But balancing is not static. China’s infrastructure investments are designed to withstand political transitions. Pakistan’s support carries symbolic weight in a country emerging from war in 1971. India’s influence rests not only on security cooperation but also on deep economic integration (electricity imports, fuel connectivity and supply chains that feed the garment industry).
Rahman’s room for maneuver is greater in some respects than his predecessors. In others it is narrower.
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According to The Financial Express, trade between India and Bangladesh stood at $11.24 billion in the 25th fiscal year. Bilateral trade had peaked at $15.68 billion in FY22, largely due to a sharp increase in Bangladesh’s imports from India, and later declined to $11.26 billion in FY23.
In the fiscal year, Bangladesh’s exports to India increased to $1.77 billion from $1.57 billion in the previous year, while imports from India increased from $9.0 billion to $9.44 billion. India maintains a significant trade surplus with Bangladesh as imports outpace exports.
Water and the politics of memory
Shared rivers present another long-term problem. Fifty-four rivers cross the border. The 1996 Ganges Water Agreement expires in December 2026. Bangladesh claims dry season flows are inadequate and data transparency is inadequate; India touts climate variability and domestic needs.
The Teesta dispute remains unresolved partly due to political resistance in India. Water management is technical but its politics are emotional.
Without careful negotiation, water can eclipse trade as the main irritant.
inheritance test
India has signaled its readiness to work with the new government. Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Rahman and expressed hope for strengthening cooperation. BNP responded positively and stated that India’s approval was welcomed.
Rahman’s premiership will be judged on ranking rather than symbolism. Can it stabilize prices and reassure investors before social frustration reemerges? Can he achieve constitutional reform without paralyzing parliament? Can it reassure India about security while keeping space open to China and Pakistan?
It inherited India’s narrow Siliguri Corridor as a vibrant strategic pressure point, not a distant geographical curiosity. He inherited an economy dependent on clothing, not as a slogan but as a constraint. He inherited institutions weakened by conflict and a society hungry for stability.
